VENEZUELAN ELECTION UPDATE: SIX DAYS OUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 003477

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NSC FOR DTOMLINSON
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2026
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM VE
SUBJECT: VENEZUELAN ELECTION UPDATE: SIX DAYS OUT

REF: CARACAS 003476

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Classified By: Robert Downes, Political Counselor,
For Reason 1.4(d)

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Summary
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1. (C) Both opposition candidate Manuel Rosales and President
Hugo Chavez took advantage of the last weekend of campaigning
before the December 3 elections to stage some of the largest
rallies seen in Venezuela in recent years. The OAS and EU
electoral observation missions met with electoral officials
but offered little in public statements. The National
Electoral Council (CNE) reduced the number of credentialed
observers for the electoral NGO Ojo Electoral to 400, opting
instead to incorporate two other groups with leanings toward
the government and the opposition, respectively. The BRV
also issued a decree prohibiting public meetings and
demonstrations on December 2-3 for reasons of public order,
but drawing the ire of human rights groups and apparently
targeting opposition plans to stage vigils to protect the
vote outside of polling stations. Archbishop Baltazar
Porras, in a pastoral letter, urged Venezuelans to vote their
conscience in the election. End Summary.

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Rosales Campaign
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2. (C) Hundreds of thousands of Rosales supporters turned out
November 25 in Caracas for the final mass rally in Caracas
(Reftel covers this and the November 26 Chavez march).
Rosales followed up with a trademark "avalanche" rally in
Carabobo. He is expected to close his campaign formally on
Wednesday in Maracaibo.

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Chavez Campaign
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3. (U) While Rosales conducted his rally in Caracas, Chavez
continued his breathless inauguration of public works with
the opening of two metro rail stations, begun in the late
80s, in Rosales' home state of Maracaibo. Chavez promised
billions more in social spending for 2007.

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Observers
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4. (C) EU and OAS Electoral Observation Missions (EOMs). All
but one of the 120-odd members of the EU EOM are on the
ground. Unfortunately two observers were robbed over the
weekend and one of those is hospitalized for injuries
sustained during the incident. The Finnish Ambassador
confirmed to Polcouns that the EU EOM does not plan to make
any public statement until December 5, two days after the
election. Eighty short-term EU observers will begin training
on November 27 and will be dispatched outside Caracas on
November 29. Press reports say that OAS Mission Chief Juan
Enrique Fischer and EU Chief Monica Frassoni met with
National Electoral Council (CNE) President Tibisay Lucena
November 27, though senior military officials in charge of
safeguarding the election process failed to show for the
meeting. The two EOM chiefs offered only brief comments to
the press to comment on the cordial nature of the meeting.
Separately the Canadian DCM Vicken Koundakjian reports that
the OAS EOM will include members of the Canadian diplomatic
mission and that the Dutch government is providing the OAS
EOM a contribution of USD 100,000. Koundakjian had been
unable to reach the OAS EOM to confirm whether they will also
include diplomats from other member Embassies.


5. (C) Domestic Observers. The CNE will accredit only 400 of
Ojo Electoral's 1,000 observers to cover some of the more
than 11,000 polling centers, according to the National
Democratic Institute (NDI). An NDI technician told Emboffs
this is a completely arbitrary number. At the same time, the
CNE is accrediting 350 observers of the Asamblea de
Educadores (a pro-opposition group),and 50 from Radar de los
Barrios, a network of neighborhood groups with heavy
pro-Chavez representation. (Note: The Asamblea de
Educadores was decried in 2004 by the BRV for having received
NED funding; they have been working for two years to moderate

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their image as a hard-opposition organization.) (Comment:
The conventional wisdom behind the decision is a desire
balance the domestic observers along the political spectrum,
though it has the impact of severely limiting Ojo Electoral,
the group with the most training and experience.)

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CNE/BRV Actions
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6. (C) The Ministry of Interior and Justice (MIJ) issued on
November 25 a resolution prohibiting during December 2-3 all
public meetings and demonstrations that might affect the
electoral process. The resolution claimed the prohibition
was to maintain order. The human rights NGO PROVEA denounced
the resolution as criminalizing protest before the fact and
said it could result in detentions and prosecutions of
peaceful protesters. (Comment: It is likely this measure is
targeted at the opposition's public call for voters to
maintain vigils outside of polling stations on election night
to "defend the vote.")

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Other Developments
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7. (SBU) Former president of the Episcopal Conference of
Venezuela (CEV) and Archbishop of Merida Baltazar Porras
released a written pastoral exhortation for the November 26
mass calling on all Venezuelans to participate in the
December 3 vote, "for the future of Venezuela." Porras urged
voters to make their choice based on the positions of the
candidates and not out of "emotion, irrationality, or
convenience." Porras, an ardent Chavez critic during his
tenure leading the CEV, is currently the CEV's communications
secretary.

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