ELECTION UPDATE: ROSALES INROADS, STILL UPHILL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 003427

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL VE
SUBJECT: ELECTION UPDATE: ROSALES INROADS, STILL UPHILL
BATTLE

REF: A. CARACAS 003319


B. CARACAS 003407

CARACAS 00003427 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR DANIEL LAWTON,
REASON 1.4 (D)


1. (C) Summary. Consensus opposition candidate Manuel
Rosales continues to wage a strong, credible campaign against
President Chavez. Rosales' political strength is now greater
than the sum of the parts of the opposition that united
behind him in August, and recent endorsements of his
candidacy could help him persuade potential supporters to
vote, rather than abstain. Nevertheless, recent polling data
suggests that Rosales still trails Chavez by at least 15
percent among likely voters, and Rosales probably lacks both
the time and resources necessary to make up that difference
by December 3. Chavez continues to exploit his incumbent
position to shower potential voters with government spending
and to showcase big public infrastructure projects. At the
same time, Chavez continues to inject fear into the campaign,
countering the Rosales campaign's efforts to persuade its
supports to "dare to vote for change." End Summary.

--------------
Polls, Polls, Polls
--------------


2. (C) A number of pollsters have released their findings in
recent weeks, and while their results vary (and
interpretations of the data even more),the pattern that is
emerging in the last weeks of the campaign is that President
Chavez continues to maintain about a 15 percent lead among
likely voters over opposition candidate Rosales. DATOS
pollster Edmund Saade told poloff that he believes the
intention to vote for Rosales is around 35 percent and
continues to climb, while support for Chavez is at about 50
percent. He predicted the final vote tallies would be 40 or
45 percent for Rosales and 55 to 60 percent for Chavez, a
comfortable margin of victory but far short of Chavez' stated
goal of securing 10 million votes.


3. (C) Pollster Alfredo Keller released a recent poll
suggesting that firm support is rising for Rosales and
falling for Chavez. Rather than focus on stated voter
intentions, Keller projected how undecided voters will vote
based on their leaning on individual issues and concluded
that Rosales is trailing Chavez by a much smaller margin than
the 15-20 percent in other prominent local polls. Rosales
campaign people continue to insist that the "fear factor" is
skewing polling preferences toward Chavez by some 12 percent.
They also cite recent polls commissioned by the campaign
that ensure the confidentiality of respondents to argue that
Rosales is pulling even with Chavez. More candid Rosales
advisors, however, concede that support for Rosales is
hovering close to 40 percent, but has not yet moved beyond
that threshold.

--------------
The Church Weighs In
--------------


4. (SBU) In an interview published in a recent Catholic
Church weekly, Venezuelan Cardinal Jorge Urosa Savino urged
the National Electoral Council (CNE) to eliminate the use of
fingerprint (digital scanning) machines during the December 3
presidential election. Underscoring his concern about
political polarization and rumors of "destabilization" plans
in Venezuela, Cardinal Urosa also urged Venezuelans to
respect the will of the electorate and eschew political
violence. In an "El Nacional" interview published November
13, retired (and much more outspoken) Venezuelan Cardinal
Rosalio Castillo Lara compared the upcoming Venezuelan
election to the 1948 election in Italy between the Christian
Democrats and Communist Party. Cardinal Castillo Lara said
that a Chavez victory would mean "the definitive destruction
of democracy with a dictatorial and communist regime similar
to Cuba,s." He added that the Catholic Church has a
responsibility not to just encourage Venezuelans to vote, but
also to "vote well."

--------------
Abstentionist Shifts to Rosales
--------------


5. (SBU) Former Zulia governor and 2004 Christian Democratic
(COPEI) presidential candidate Oswaldo Alvarez Paz formally

CARACAS 00003427 002.3 OF 003


endorsed Manuel Rosales in an October 30 press conference.
Previously citing inadequate electoral conditions that favor
Chavez' re-election, Alvarez Paz had been one of the
opposition's most strident and articulate advocates of
abstaining in the upcoming presidential election. The
Rosales campaign continues to try to persuade potential
supporters to vote, rather than to stay at home, and Alvarez
Paz's endorsement helps the Rosales campaign build the case
against abstentionism. The leadership of the Democratic
Action (AD) party continues to espouse abstentionism, despite
that fact that many of its members are actively supporting
Rosales.

--------------
"El Conde" Pasa
--------------


6. (C) Minor third party candidate and comedian Benjamin
Rausseo ("El Conde de Huacharo") formally withdrew November
15 from the presidential election. Rausseo, who was polling
negligible support in opinion polls, was recently
hospitalized for "nervous exhaustion." Rausseo did not
endorse either Rosales or Chavez and lamented political
polarization in Venezuela. Rausseo campaign leaders across
Venezuela had been pressing Rausseo to withdraw from the
campaign and endorse Manuel Rosales for some time. Rausseo
campaign advisors Pedro Penzini and Humberto Anzola told
PolCouns November 9 that they and other key advisors intended
to work for Rosales, even if Rausseo did not.


7. (C) Rausseo was wary of potential government reprisals if
he endorsed Rosales, according to Penzini and Anzola.
BRV tax authorities temporarily shut down Rausseo's theme
park in the state of Nueva Esparta early in the campaign for
alleged non-payment of taxes. Since then, law enforcement
agencies have more recently threatened to move against at
least one of Rausseo's Caracas hotel properties for operating
an illegal casino. Penzini said Rausseo had ceased actively
campaigning in early October, primarily due to a shortage of
funds.

--------------
The Chavez Gravy Train
--------------


8. (SBU) President Chavez continues to announce a number of
spending measures and inaugurate important infrastructure
projects in the run-up to the presidential election. Chavez:

-- announced a 10% increase in Venezuela's minimum wage in
late September (on the heels of a 15% increase in February
2006);

-- opened in late October the new railway line between the
ex-urban areas of the Valles of Tuy and the Caracas Metro and
declared the line run free of charge until December 31;

-- moved up holiday bonuses for public sector employees (two
months salary was paid on November 1 and another month's
salary will be paid by December 1);

-- held another ceremony in early November to disburse
outstanding severance payments to thousands of former
government employees; and,

-- inaugurated November 13 with Brazilian President Lula Da
Silva a USD 1.2 billion dollar bridge over the Orinoco River
(this second bridge over the Orinoco was reportedly ready for
opening months earlier).

--------------
Electoral Conditions
--------------


9. (SBU) Information Minister William Lara strongly defended
the use of fingerprint (digital scanning) machines to the
media during the weekend of November 11-12. CNE Rector
Vicente Diaz, the only one of five CNE rectors considered to
be independent and not pro-government, told the local media
that the fingerprint machines maintain the secrecy of the
vote, but recommended that the machines not be used due to
public concerns about the machines. The CNE's audit of the
voting machines began on November 9 with opposition
participation. The Rosales campaign has filed hundreds of
electoral complaints with the CNE, mostly related to unfair
use of government resources and media in the Chavez campaign.

CARACAS 00003427 003.2 OF 003


The Chavez campaign has also submitted a large number of
counter-complaints against the Rosales campaign with the CNE.
The CNE is unlikely to adjudicate the vast majority of both
sides' complaints before the December 3 election.


10. (SBU) Opposition candidate Rosales last publicly
complained of electoral violence during an October 19 press
conference in Carabobo State after small groups of Chavistas
launched rock-and-bottle attacks on his campaign caravans.
Rosales blamed the attacks on President Chavez, whom he
accused of importing Cuban-style political intimidation
tactics. Since that time, Rosales has led a series of
well-attended rallies in Caracas and in a variety of states
without violent incidents. However, visiting Spanish Partido
Popular National Deputy Jorge Moragas, who endorsed Rosales
during a recent visit to Venezuela (along with visiting
Partido Popular member of the European Parliament and former
Spanish Interior Minister Jaime Mayor Oreja),told reporters
November 8 that Chavistas threw rocks at him in downtown
Caracas.

--------------
A Red Army?
--------------


11. (SBU) On the heels of the video revelation that Energy
and Petroleum Minister Rafael Ramirez told state oil company
PDVSA managers that they needed to be "red, very red (i.e.,
pro-Chavez)" (Reftel),President Chavez endorsed those
comments and added that the Venezuelan armed forces are also
"red, very red." Defense Minister Raul Baduel told the local
media November 8 that the armed forces are patriotic and
subordinate to political authority, but also an essentially
"professional" institution. Presidential Staff Member
Admiral Luis Cabrera Aguirre, however, ratified Chavez'
statement telling the media that all the organizations of the
government, including the armed forces, need to be "red, very
red" because that is the color of the "Venezuelan revolution."


12. (SBU) BRV efforts to tie the Venezuelan military to the
Chavez campaign appear to be intensifying. Recently, the
facade of the National Military Academy of Venezuela was
redecorated with the slogan "Cradle of the Bolivarian
Revolution" in big letters underneath the name of the
institution. In addition, an enormous inflatable
representation of President Chavez was placed on the roof of
the 53rd detachment of the National Guard at the
international airport in Maiquetia, outside Caracas. Over
100,000 members of the armed forces, including a large
proportion of military reserves, will guard the more than
11,000 voting stations in Venezuela (Septel).

BROWNFIELD