OAS AND EU EOMS SET, BUT PROSPECTS FOR ROBUST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 003426

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SIPDIS

BRUSSELS FOR USEU
DEPT FOR USOAS
HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2026
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: OAS AND EU EOMS SET, BUT PROSPECTS FOR ROBUST
ELECTION OBSERVATION BLEAK


CARACAS 00003426 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT R. DOWNES FOR 1.4 (D)


1. (C) Summary. The BRV's deliberate policy of delay has
successfully impeded effective, impartial international
observation of the December 3 presidential election. After
receiving an invitation to observe in June, the EU was not
able to sign an MOU with the National Electoral Council (CNE)
until November 15 -- less than three weeks before the
election. The Carter Center plans to send just a very small
technical mission, assuming it can conclude its MOU with the
CNE soon after. The OAS team is on the ground with a few
people, but will not be joined by mission leader Jose Enrique
Fischer, whose impartiality is already being widely
questioned by the opposition, until at least November 18.
The electoral observation missions (EOMs) have missed most of
the key events in the electoral preparation process and have
had to scale back their previously planned activities,
effectively making it impossible that they will be able to
mount a comprehensive and useful observation effort. End
Summary.

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EU Mission Coming Late
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2. (C) Although the National Electoral Council (CNE) sent its
invitation to the EU to observe the December 3 presidential
election in June, the CNE dragged out MOU negotiations by
seeking to restrict the ability of the EU EOM to issue
opinions or make public its findings. EU Commission
Ambassador signed an MOU with the CNE on November 15, only
after the CNE backed off its unacceptable preconditions.
European Commission First Secretary Denis Danilidis told
Poloff November 14 that "CNE incompetence" compounded the
delays. The EU EOM leader is expected to arrive in Caracas
on November 15 or 16 -- two and a half weeks before the
election -- along with 10 core team members. Thirty
"long-term" observers will arrive the week of November 20,
followed by 100 "short-term" observers the week before the
elections. While EU observers hope to catch the end of the
audits of the fingerprint machines, which began November 9,
they have missed most audits and testing of the machines and
software. Observers will focus on government intimidation of
voters, particularly civil servants, and the reliability of
the electronic voting process on election day.

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OAS Arrives, Sort Of
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3. (C) OAS EOM leader and former Uruguayan Ambassador to the
OAS Jose Enrique Fischer is not scheduled to arrive in
Caracas until the weekend of November 18, just two weeks
before the election, according to OAS EOM Deputy Judith
Lobos. Lobos told Poloff November 14 that while the OAS
plans to field about 50 observers, many of the technical
experts will not begin to arrive until after Fischer. The
arrival of a number of EOM members has been delayed due to a
lack of funding, she admitted. Without extra money the OAS
may need to further scale back its EOM. The EOM will focus
on monitoring the audits remaining for the fingerprint
(digital scanning) machines, campaign abuses, distribution of
election materials, as well as voting day procedures,
including any electoral violence or intimidation.


4. (C) Outgoing OAS representative Carlos Carbacho told
Poloff November 6 that he was pessimistic about the potential
effectiveness of the OAS EOM. Carbacho said the mission
would probably prove "quite toothless" since the agreement
with the CNE prohibits the EOM from making public statements
without prior vetting. Lobos later refuted this, saying the
agreement adhered to the standards in the Democratic Charter,
which do not allow for such control. The OAS's final EOM
report is supposed to be presented via the Secretary General
of the OAS Permanent Council, according to the same MOU.
Carbacho also said EOM head Jose Enrique Fischer is a close
friend of Venezuelan Vice Foreign Minister for North America
and Multilateral Affairs (and former Ambassador to OAS) Jorge
Valero, and is probably seen as a "safe pick" for the
Bolivarians.

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Carter Center Reduced to Almost Nothing

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5. (C) Carter Center's Hector Vanolli told Poloff November
14 that the Center expects to sign an MOU with the CNE soon
after the MOU between the CNE and EU is signed on November

15. Vanolli also blamed the delay on "CNE incompetence," as
well as institutional resistance to a comprehensive
international election observation effort. The Carter Center
plans to send a small group of technical observers that will
work with the EU EOM to monitor the security of the voting
system on election day at CNE headquarters. The group will
consist of seven observers: a mission leader, deputy, and
five technical experts, including three from the state of
Georgia. Because of the late date, the Carter Center had to
scrap their plans to analyze campaign media coverage, one of
the areas of Chavez' policy most criticized by the EU and OAS
during the December 2005 National Assembly elections. The
CNE rejected a Carter Center proposal to evaluate existing
(and largely inadequate) audits of the electoral registry.

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Comment
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6. (C) The December 3 Venezuelan Presidential elections
would have benefited from a robust international observation
effort had such electoral missions begun much earlier and had
they been led by internationally renowned persons able to
stand up to BRV pressure. While the fact that the EU and OAS
got caught up in protracted negotiations has something to do
with CNE incompetence, the more relevant observation is that
the two organizations fell into every one of the BRV's
deliberate traps, designed to stall the arrival of the
missions. The EOMs' have accepted insufficient lead time and
circumscribed functions that make it effectively impossible
that they will be able to mount a comprehensive and useful
observation effort. Now with less than three weeks before
the presidential election, the EOMs are just barely getting
into place. They have missed major decisions and tests
affecting the electronic voting process and will be basing
their conclusions on a incomplete, cursory snapshot of the
end of the presidential campaign.

BROWNFIELD