CHAVEZ DEMANDS MILITARY LOYALTY -- AND WARNS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 003284 SIPDIS SIPDIS HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER) E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/01/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL VE SUBJECT: CHAVEZ DEMANDS MILITARY LOYALTY -- AND WARNS OPPOSITION CARACAS 00003284 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT DOWNES, REASON 1.4 (D) ¶1. (C) Summary. President Chavez' televised October 31 speech to a large group of senior military officials appeared to be a very public effort to cement the military's loyalty prior to the December 3 presidential election. Chavez accused the opposition of trying to conspire with unidentified military officials and the USA on a "destabilization plan," and he warned both the opposition and military against attempting a coup. He also accused the opposition of preparing to sabotage Venezuela's electronic voting system. Chavez' remarks are likely to exacerbate growing public concerns about potential instability around the time of the presidential election (septel). They are also likely to heighten the opposition's fears that Chavez is politicizing the military and preparing a smokescreen to commit electoral fraud. End Summary. -------------- Anti-Coup Warnings -------------- ¶2. (SBU) President Chavez presided over an October 31 ceremony to announce the transfer of public funds to the Institute of Social Provision of the Armed Forces (IPSFA). He also handed out early retirement packages reportedly requested by some military officials. The ceremony took place in the Military Academy auditorium, filled to capacity with Venezuelan military officers and was televised by Venezuelan state television (VTV). Chavez used the opportunity to stress his personal commitment to the Venezuelan military's capabilities and well-being. He also accused the opposition leaders and media outlets of "abusing their liberty" and being "anti-military." The military audience listened attentively to Chavez' speech, occasionally interrupting with applause. ¶3. (SBU) Chavez devoted part of his lengthy speech to issue public warnings to military officers from all the military branches present and to the opposition. Chavez said that he received information that opposition leaders have been trying to persuade military officials to participate in a "destabilization plan" in the run-up to the December 3 presidential election. He added that an unspecified opposition leader visited military cuartels in the plains ;states immediately after returning from the United States. "I know where," Chavez continued, "and I am waiting for this official to report the news. The fact that he has not yet reported it makes it suspicious." ¶4. (SBU) After discussing the short-lived coup of 2002 and referring to the "risky weeks" ahead, Chavez warned the military officers present that he would not permit another attempted coup. Specifically, Chavez said he would not hesitate to apply "the full force of the law" against anyone who "steps out of the constitutional framework." Chavez suggested that there are some officials who still pretend to support his government while "hiding their knives." He recommended that any such officials should retire and "enjoy life with their children and grandchildren" because a coup would "never succeed." -------------- Election Fraud Alert -------------- ¶5. (C) Noting that the National Electoral Council (CNE) is putting up firewalls to protect Venezuela's electronic voting system, Chavez turned conventional wisdom -- and logic -- and quite possibly history -- on its head by accusing the opposition of preparing to sabotage balloting on December 3. Chavez said the opposition fears electoral defeat and plans to create "disturbances" in the electronic voting system in order to accuse the government of deliberately upsetting voting to prevent an opposition victory. (Note: Electoral conditions advisors to consensus opposition candidate Manuel Rosales have suggested to us the opposite -- that the Chavez government would disrupt voting on or before December 3 if Chavez were to appear to be headed for defeat on election day.) ¶6. (SBU) Chavez also handed out copies of a pro-Chavez pamphlet written by Cuban authors. The pamphlet reportedly contains a Chavez personality cult version of the Lord's CARACAS 00003284 002.2 OF 002 Prayer that reads: "Our Chavez who art in prison, hallowed be thy coup, thy revenge comes to your people, thy will, Venezuela's will, and the Army's will be done. Give us this day the lost trust, and do not forgive your traitors, as we will not forgive those who apprehended you, and lead us not into corruption, but deliver us from Carlos Andres Perez." ¶7. (SBU) Chavez' warnings are the latest in a steady drumbeat of BRV warnings of opposition plotting. Podemos Secretary General and National Assembly Foreign Policy Committee Chairman Ismael Garcia told the media October 23 that the opposition is plotting to assassinate Chavez. Citing unnamed opposition sources, the pro-government daily Vea reported on October 29 that opposition "agitators" are planning to block traffic and set up barricades to create civil chaos. Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel issued an October 30 communique warning the opposition against "irregular provocations" and "adventurous politics." -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Chavez' public warnings to both the military and opposition characteristically lacked either substance or proof and appear to be more political theater. Nevertheless, Chavez' pointed remarks seemed to have also served as a convenient -- and stark -- "gut check" for the armed forces in the run-up to election day. At the same time, Chavez managed to reinforce key elements of his campaign strategies. First, he once again promoted his principal, and divisive, campaign theme that he is the underdog confronting "oligarchs" and "lackeys of the empire." Second, he rebuked legitimate opposition concerns about potential government electoral fraud by throwing the opposition's accusations right back at them. WHITAKER