ELECTORAL LOGISTICS CONTINUE TO FAVOR CHAVEZ

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 CARACAS 003239 SIPDIS SIPDIS BRUSSELS FOR USEU DEPT FOR USOAS HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2026 TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE SUBJECT: ELECTORAL LOGISTICS CONTINUE TO FAVOR CHAVEZ REF: A. CARACAS 1719 ¶B. 05 CARACAS 03113 CARACAS 00003239 001.2 OF 004 Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT DOWNES, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) and (D) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The National Electoral Council's (CNE) preparations for the December 3 presidential election give President Chavez a significant electoral advantage. Four of the five CNE directors are pro-Chavez. The directors have consistently denied opposition requests, such as eliminating fingerprint machines, aimed at improving voter confidence. The fingerprint machines and tight control of the voter rolls will allow the CNE to know who is voting. Pro-Chavez party witnesses will vastly outnumber opposition party witnesses, giving Chavez control of the post-electoral audit. Moreover, the military units guarding the electoral materials include pro-government civilians, and the BRV is deliberately stalling the arrival of international observers, such as the EU and OAS. The delays could result in some international observers deciding not to come. With less than 45 days before the vote, there is little chance that the Chavez-controlled CNE will make the electoral playing field more level. End Summary. -------------- Infrastructure -------------- ¶2. (C) The National Electoral Council (CNE) will set up more than 33,000 voting tables at some 11,000 polling stations for the December 3 presidential election. CNE President Tibisay Lucena stated publicly that the machines will not be hooked up to servers or transmit results until after the voting tallies have been printed, as the opposition requested. The opposition is concerned that the CNE will not honor this commitment at polling places that may lack opposition observers. The CNE is in the process of buying another roughly 5,500 voting machines, which will bring the cost of Smartmatic's total contract to USD 32 million for the new machines and the servicing, programming, transporting, and auditing of all machines used on voting day, according to El Universal. The CNE has yet to sign service contracts with Smartmatic, or Gillat and CANTV, the companies responsible for servicing the digital scanning machines and transmitting data, respectively, but it tends to wait until the last minute to complete such agreements. -------------- Fingerprint Machines -------------- ¶3. (C) In late October the CNE voted four to one to use the fingerprint (digital scanning) machines in eight states over opposition parties' appeals. The CNE said it would maintain the machines off-line, however, meaning that this data would not be available to CNE headquarters. (Note: Lone opposition CNE Director Vicente Diaz objected and is trying to convince fellow board members to reverse the decision.) The CNE did concede to opposition requests to eliminate an electronic version of the voter rolls that would have been used to verify voter credentials. The fingerprint machine matter is the key issue for the opposition as many of its supporters fear the government will use the machines to discover how they voted. Wary of another Maisanta-type list--which has been used to retaliate against anti-Chavez Venezuelans-- they may consequently abstain from the election. ¶4. (C) Concerned about scaring off potential supporters, opposition challenger Manuel Rosales has focused his campaign on issues rather than electoral conditions. Rosales' liaison to the CNE, Enrique Marquez, told poloff that the studies they have received about the fingerprint scanning machines indicate that they do not serve their stated purpose as they cannot identify voters, nor can they determine if someone votes twice, contrary to CNE claims. Instead of directly confronting the CNE on the issue publicly, the Rosales campaign has released these reports and hopes that by discrediting the machines, they can convince the CNE to withdraw them. During their October 25 meeting, Rosales CARACAS 00003239 002.2 OF 004 asked visiting OAS Secretary General Jose Miguel Insulza to intercede and convince the CNE to remove the machines. -------------- Voter Rolls -------------- ¶5. (C) A little more than 16 million people are registered to vote in the December 3 election, according to the final version of the electoral registry (REP) approved by the CNE in September. Simon Bolivar University rector Benjamin Sharifker told the Ambassador in June that population projections by Venezuela's three leading autonomous universities (Central Venezuela University, Simon Bolivar, and Andres Bello Catholic University) suggested that was a reasonable number of registered voters. The CNE began publishing the final REP September 27 in accordance with the CNE's electoral timeline. ¶6. (C) The CNE did not fulfill the opposition's demand for an independent audit of the REP (Ref A),which could have helped resolved concerns about the REP's integrity following the inscription of millions of voters before the 2004 recall referendum. CAPEL, for example, was unable to complete parts of its CNE-commissioned audit in 2005 due to incomplete data in the registry (Ref B). Opposition electoral experts have found multiple entries with similar names, birth dates, or identification numbers as in the now-famous case of roughly 1,900 Gonzalezes all born on the same day. The REP had also contained a disproportionately high number of centenarians (over 39,000),some of whom had voted in recent elections, although the CNE asked voters to verify entries for centenarians during the voter registration drive and claims to have purged the rolls of dead voters. ¶7. (C) Chavez has also padded voter rolls by naturalizing Colombians and other foreigners who, in exchange for legal status, are expected to vote for him. Members of Rosales' camp have told Emboffs their own limited investigations as part of the CNE-sanctioned audit (Ref A) found the REP does not appear to be sufficiently flawed to affect election results. Still, the opposition has not had full access to a current version of the REP, nor the opportunity to conduct rigorous audits in the field. -------------- Audits -------------- ¶8. (C) Audits of the voting software and machines began October 10. Representatives from the campaigns of President Chavez, opposition challengers Rosales and Benjamin Rausseo, and some minor candidates are participating, according to press reports, as is an advance EU observer. Political party auditors are supposed to have a more hands-on role this year, unlike last year, when they were initially confined to watching CNE experts conduct the audits, according to Marquez. ¶9. (C) The CNE also agreed to open a proportionate number of voting boxes per voting center, which would result in counting a minimum of 53 percent of the voting receipts. While short of the 100 percent requested by the opposition, Marquez told poloff they were satisfied with the decision. Other Rosales advisors told DCM, however, that they remain concerned that the government can and will manipulate electoral results absent a 100 percent check. The boxes are supposed to be chosen at random by poll workers and party witnesses after the polls have closed and the machines have printed their final tally sheets (actas). The CNE also amended its rules to give opposition representatives a copy of the acta. Previous regulations permitted only the six parties with the highest vote share in the last election to receive a copy of the actas. Because they boycotted the 2005 legislative election, none of the opposition parties would have qualified. ¶10. (C) Nevertheless, the audit is not binding and, as far as we know, there are no clear procedures for challenging the results if the actas do not match the number of voting receipts in the boxes. We also note that many of the 14 remaining minor presidential candidates are widely believed to be pro-Chavez, and their witnesses would vastly outnumber those of the opposition, increasing the government's CARACAS 00003239 003.2 OF 004 influence in the execution of the audit and reducing the weight of potential opposition complaints of irregularities. -------------- Selection of Poll Workers -------------- ¶11. (C) The CNE selected poll workers in late September. Electoral law requires voters to be randomly selected to staff polling stations and voting tables. This is a mandatory civic duty, although non-compliers seldom face any penalty. Our contacts, including CNE workers, have told us the CNE has not tried very hard to notify those selected since the 2004 referendum, presumably to stack poll watchers with government sympathizers. In late October, the CNE said interested voters could register to receive a text message notifying them if they have been selected. Still, the opposition is planning its own notification campaign. Rosales folks say only 30 percent of those selected signed the recall petition. According to El Universal newspaper, Agriculture Minister Elias Jaua was selected as a principal poll worker, while several other government officials, including Miranda State Governor Diosdado Cabello, National Assembly President Cilia Flores, tax chief Jose Vielma Mora, and Education Minister Aristobulo Isturiz, were chosen as alternates. -------------- Plan Republica -------------- ¶12. (C) This year, the military is expected to deploy some 128,000 troops as part of the "Plan Republica" military support plan. These soldiers--which may include up to 19,000 reservists-- will be responsible for guarding and transporting election materials and voting machines, and providing security for polling centers. (Note: According to DAO reporting, there are less than 100,000 active duty military personnel. The reported number of troops to be deployed is probably inflated because many positions on paper have not been filled.) CNE President Lucena has said that the troops would not be allowed to review identity cards of voters before granting entry to the polls, as they did last year (illegally). The EU exploratory observation mission told us October 5 that the CNE would post signs describing Plan Republica duties at the polls to educate voters and elicit legitimate complaints. Still, they expressed concern about the use of reservists, who tend to be pro-Chavez civilian recruits, not soldiers. -------------- International Observers -------------- ¶13. (C) The CNE issued formal invitations for EU, OAS, and Carter Center (CC) observation missions, but is deliberately stalling on signing final MOUs with these bodies. Negotiations with the EU have deadlocked over the CNE's refusal to allow observer missions to make public statements and publish a final public report. EU First Secretary Denis Daniilidis told poloff October 19 that he thought they would resolve the issue soon and that core team members could arrive as early as the first week of November. He reiterated, however, that the CNE's conditions on public statements and a final report are "deal-breakers." OAS SecGen Insulza met with President Chavez, Vice President Rangel, Vice Foreign Minister for Multilateral Organizations Valero, and the CNE board October 25 and told the Ambassador that they have reached an agreement. The mission will consist of approximately 45 formal observers led by former Uruguayan Ambassador to the OAS Juan Enrique Fischer (septel). ¶14. (C) Local CC representative Hector Vanolli told Poloffs October 11 that they are proposing a small mission (read 15 members) that would complement the OAS and EU missions focusing on three areas: verifying the security of electronic voting; campaign monitoring; and auditing the audits of the electoral registry to identify strengths and weaknesses of each for future work. The CNE leaked the CC's private proposal to the media and scoffed at possible work on the registry. Canadian Second Secretary Dana Cryderman told Emboff October 13 that CC Americas Director Jennifer McCoy has approached Ottawa unsuccessfully for additional funding. The Canadian Government plans to offer the OAS roughly USD CARACAS 00003239 004.2 OF 004 62,000 if it decides to mount an observation mission. -------------- Domestic Observers -------------- ¶15. (C) The EU exploratory team told Poloffs October 5 that domestic electoral NGO Ojo Electoral told them that Lucena had promised the NGO would be accredited to observe the election. Although they have not yet received an invitation, most of their donors have indicated they expect Ojo to be accredited. Ojo, which receives technical assistance from USAID (through NDI),Canada, Finland, and the EU, has been the sole accredited domestic observer in the past three elections. Once, or if, accredited, Ojo plans to send out some 1,000 observers nationwide, according to two NDI experts working with the group. As they've done in past elections, electoral NGO Sumate, which is not recognized by the CNE, will contribute members as witnesses for the Rosales campaign. They are also working with Rosales' campaign to train political party observers. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶16. (C) The BRV has tried to sell the "new CNE" as a technically qualified board that has carefully deliberated the opposition's requests, but the fact remains that the CNE continues to tilt the playing field against the opposition in numerous ways. If the CNE continues to play hardball with the international observers, they may decide not to come. The CNE is more likely to come to an eleventh hour agreement with observers as a means to try to give a flawed electoral process greater legitimacy. The CNE has conceded to easy opposition requests, such as maintaining voting machines off-line until voting ends, but has drawn the line on other critical issues, such as eliminating the fingerprint machines, that could help boost voter confidence in the secrecy of the ballot. Most of the 2005 OAS and EU electoral observation missions' recommendations, such as an independent audit of the electoral registry, also went unheeded. With less than 45 days before the vote, the Chavez-controlled CNE appears to be doing little to improve electoral conditions, and consequently, is indirectly assisting President Chavez' re-election campaign. BROWNFIELD