KEY BRV ADVISOR ON UNSC RACE, POSSIBLE CABINET

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 003238

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HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2031
TAGS: PREL PGOV VE GT UN
SUBJECT: KEY BRV ADVISOR ON UNSC RACE, POSSIBLE CABINET
CHANGES


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Classified By: Ambassador W.R. Brownfield for reason 1.4 (b)

Summary
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1. (C) Ambassador and DCM met on October 27 with Rene
Arreaza of the vice president's office, about our only
reliable contact within the BRV. Arreaza said that the BRV
had concluded it could not win a UNSC seat, and so was aiming
at a seat-sharing arrangement with Guatemala. This would be
an unfortunate outcome for us. Arreaza predicted wholesale
changes in the cabinet after the election, with VP Rangel and
FM Maduro almost certain to move on. He identified former FM
Ali Rodriguez and VFM Jorge Valero as the most likely
candidates to replace them, respectively. If Rangel goes,
Arreaza -- who we count on in virtually every operational
arena, from drugs to visas to providing insights on the
government and the Chavez campaign -- is likely to move on as
well. That could result in a further reduction in our
already puny access to the BRV. Arreaza said that the
Calderon team had sent an emissary to set the stage for
restoring Mexico-Venezuela relations at the ambassadorial
level, following Calderon's inauguration, and Arreaza viewed
that as likely to happen. End summary.


2. (C) Ambassador and DCM met with Rene Arreaza, chief of
staff to Vice President Rangel, on October 27. Arreaza is
the only BRV official with whom we can have regular contact,
and serves as a reliable transmission belt for messages to
and from the Bolivarian government.

Sharing the UNSC Seat
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3. (C) Arreaza was eager to discuss the latest on the UNSC
election standoff between Venezuela and Guatemala. He said
that Chavez is running the show and making all decisions for
the BRV on this issue. FM Maduro is merely the gofer.
Chavez has concluded that the BRV cannot get the necessary
votes to win the seat outright. For that reason, the BRV has
explored other possible GRULAC consensus candidates. None
are viable. The GOG will not accept Bolivia, the BRV's
preferred choice; Argentina will not accept Uruguay; the GOG
will not accept the Dominican Republic; and both Costa Rica
and Panama are uninterested. Chavez has therefore decided
that the solution is to split the seat with Guatemala. Under
this scheme, Guatemala gets the first year; Venezuela gets
the second. Arreaza thought this solution would probably
produce consensus in GRULAC.


4. (C) Arreaza said that Guatemalan FM Rosenthal proposed
to go to both Cuba and Venezuela this weekend to discuss the
UNSC impasse. Here in Venezuela, he would have sought to
meet with Chavez, VP Rangel, and FM Maduro. However, the BRV
waved him off, concluding that a five day cooling off period
was best at this point.


5. (C) Wary of the seat-splitting "solution," the
Ambassador suggested that the scheme of electing two
governments to one year terms sounded overly complicated and
might require the General Assembly to change rules and
procedures. Arreaza said the BRV had "consulted with the UN
Secretariat" and learned that the rules would permit this to

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be decided by a 2/3 majority.


6. (C) Comment: This play has a decided ring of truth to
it, and it's likely this reflects Chavez, thinking right
now. Chavez is trying to pull victory from the jaws of
defeat; by forcing us to swallow the BRV on the UNSC, even
for a single year, he can declare victory over the "Empire."
Alternatively, if we are seen as blocking GRULAC consensus on
this issue, he'll seek to spotlight our intransigence, and
put the blame for his defeat on us. It would be unfortunate
if the GOG were to be attracted by this solution. End
comment.

Post-election Cabinet Changes?
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7. (C) Arreaza said he expected considerable rotation in
the cabinet after the December 3 elections. (He viewed it a
foregone conclusion that Chavez would be re-elected.)
Arreaza noted that Chavez loves to make changes in the
cabinet to keep people off-balance; he did not rule out a
clean sweep, changing literally every government minister.
VP Rangel, closing in on 80 years of age and afflicted with

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constant colds, was making plans to leave the government
after the election. Arreaza did not repeat the most
often-heard rumor about Rangel, that he'd seek a retirement
post as Ambassador to Chile (his wife is Chilean). Arreaza
suggested that former FM, and current Ambassador to Cuba, Ali
Rodriguez might now be best positioned to replace Rangel.
(The vice president is elected by the National Assembly, not
popular vote.) Rodriguez had been plagued with poor health
as foreign minister, including prostate cancer and
complications from a leg amputation, but he'd recently been
given an encouraging report after a full checkup in Europe.
Rodriguez was unhappy with the smaller arena of being
Ambassador, and was looking forward to coming back to
Venezuela.


8. (C) Arreaza repeated what we've heard from him and
others, that FM Maduro is very likely to be sacked after the
election. Somewhat gleefully, career diplomat Arreaza
predicted that the inner circle of advisors Maduro had
brought from the National Assembly would all be expelled back
to that body once Maduro left. Arreaza said that word of
Maduro's fate was confirmed in his view when Chavez referred
to the foreign minister as "Nicolas el Breve" (Nicolas the
Brief). Arreaza said that Chavez was already vetting
potential replacements for Maduro, and current VFM Jorge
Valero was in the running. Chavez believes Valero has a good
grasp on the bilateral relationship with the United States.


9. (C) In what struck us as something of a surprise,
Arreaza predicted that UN Permrep Franciso Arias Cardenas
might come back to take a cabinet post. Arias Cardenas
likely will not be able to fulfill his mission of winning
Venezuela a UNSC seat, and Arias' devastating televised 2001
critique of Chavez as a murderous coup plotter would seem to
weigh against him winning another position of high authority.


Mexico
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10. (C) Arreaza said that the BRV had received some feelers
from the incoming Calderon team about the possibility of
re-establishing relations at the ambassadorial level, once
Calderon is inaugurated. No rapprochement is possible with
Fox as president, but given Calderon's outreach, Arreaza was
reasonably confident that relations could be normalized after
December. (Note: Mexican Charge Escalante had separately
confirmed to us that a Calderon emissary visited Caracas last
week to lay the groundwork for the return of ambassadors.
Nonetheless, Escalante said that Calderon had no illusions
about the possibility of establishing a productive
relationship with Chavez.)

Comment
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11. (C) As always, Arreaza is a good conveyer belt to and
from the BRV, when he wants to be. Unfortunately for us, we
count on him in virtually every operational arena, from drugs
to visas to providing insights on the government and the
Chavez campaign. If Rangel goes, Arreaza is likely to move
on. That could result in a reduction of our already puny
access to the BRV.

BROWNFIELD