STAFFDEL MEACHAM BREAKFAST WITH DIPLOMATS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 003194

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV UNSC VE
SUBJECT: STAFFDEL MEACHAM BREAKFAST WITH DIPLOMATS


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Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT DOWNES,
REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Summary. Visiting Senate Staff Member Carl Meacham,
accompanied by Ambassador and DCM, met October 23 with
diplomats from Chile, Mexico, the UK, and Canada. The
diplomats predicted President Chavez will win the December 3
presidential election, but said Rosales is running a strong
campaign. Both the Chilean Ambassador and Mexican Charge'
underscored that their countries' relations with the BRV
continue to be strained by Chavez' efforts to export his
Bolivarian "revolution." The Ambassador and Meacham stressed
the need to overcome Venezuelan obstructionism in the ongoing
race for a rotational seat at the UN Security Council. The
Chilean Ambassador predicted that the Latin American and
Caribbean grouping at the UN (GRULAC) would not find a
consensus candidate until after Venezuela's December 3
presidential election. End Summary.


2. (SBU) DCM hosted an October 23 breakfast with third
country diplomats for visiting Senate Staff Member Carl
Meacham. Chilean Ambassador Claudio Huepe Garcia, Mexican
Charge Nicolas Escalante Barrett, Canadian DCM Vicken
Koundakjian, UK Second Secretary Matthew Lewis, and Mexican
Cultural Attache attended. Chilean Ambassador Huepe and
Mexican Charge' discussed Chavez' re-election prospects,
their respective countries relations with the BRV, and the
ongoing race to fill the final rotational seat on the UN
Security Council. Ambassador Brownfield, poloff and USAID
officer also participated. Meacham has cleared this cable.

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Presidential Election
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3. (C) Mexican Charge Escalante said he did not expect the
December 3 presidential election to alleviate the severe
political polarization in Venezuela. He predicted that
Chavez' base would turn out in force and re-elect the
president. He said opposition candidate Manuel Rosales will
have trouble persuading many potential supporters to vote for
him rather than abstain. The opposition is understandably
concerned that the government's use of digital fingerprinting
machines will violate ballot secrecy. Chilean Ambassador
Huepe also underscored that many Venezuelans are afraid of
voting for Rosales after the BRV's political victimization of
persons who signed the 2004 presidential recall referendum
petition (and updated blacklists).


4. (C) Ambassador Huepe opined that Rosales and his
opposition allies are mounting a credible campaign. He
called Rosales an "attractive, but not charismatic"
alternative to Chavez who has gained some ground with his
proposed debit card ("Mi Negra") scheme to redistribute oil
income. Huepe also noted that most Venezuelan voters,
despite giving the government low marks in many areas, are
inclined to "forgive" Chavez because they believe Chavez
"represents them." Both Escalante and Huepe said they did
not believe Rosales could beat Chavez, even if the upcoming
election were free, fair and transparent.


5. (C) Noting that Chavez confronts internal disputes within
his movement, Huepe and Escalante said they believed Chavez
advocates the creation of a single "revolutionary" party to
try to contain such divisions. Huepe stressed that the
"internal contradictions" of Chavez' administration made it
difficult to determine who really controls the government
bureaucracy. Escalante said Chavez reportedly does not fully
trust Defense Minister Baduel and underlined the potential
significance of the "Chavismo without Chavez" faction within
government circles. At the same time, the diplomats said
President Chavez faces no real checks on his authority.

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Regional Relations
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6. (C) Noting that Venezuela and Mexico have not been
represented at the ambassadorial level in over a year, Charge
Escalante said he maintains a low profile to avoid
exacerbating tensions between the two countries. More
specifically, he noted that he is under instructions not to
meet privately with opposition groups, while government
officials are loathe to meet with him. Escalante said most
Mexicans have a strong sense of nationalism and resent
perceived BRV efforts to interfere in Mexico. Nevertheless,

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the BRV tried to influence Mexico's most recent presidential
election and is still actively supporting some Bolivarian
circles in Mexico, according to Escalante.


7. (C) Ambassador Huepe cautioned that Chavez is also trying
to influence some left-wing parties in Chile, but with only
limited success. He criticized Venezuela's most recent
ambassador to Santiago as "too political" and mentioned that
he met with Venezuela's new ambassador-designate to Chile and
expects her to be "more diplomatic." Huepe also revealed
that a MVR National Assembly Deputy chided him for hosting a
meeting attended by Rosales and some of his close advisors.
Huepe said he subsequently clarified the diplomatic nature of
the meeting with Vice President Rangel.

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UNSC Race
--------------


8. (C) Huepe reported that he was surprised by the Chilean
government's eleventh hour decision to abstain in the race
between Venezuela and Guatemala for a two-year rotational UN
Security Council seat (over Huepe's recommendation that Chile
vote for Venezuela). He added that Bachelet's office called
him to obtain cellular phone numbers for Chavez and Foreign
Minister Maduro, presumably so Bachelet could convey the
Chilean government's decision personally. Huepe predicted
that Venezuela would perpetuate the impasse until after the
December 3 presidential election, and until then, the Latin
American and Caribbean group at the UN (GRULAC) would not be
able to tap a consensus candidate.


9. (C) Visiting Senate staff member Meacham urged Chile to
show more leadership in securing a GRULAC consensus candidate
for the UNSC seat sooner. Ambassador Brownfield stressed
that Latin American and Caribbean countries have few options
left after 35 rounds of UN voting. He said the impasse could
continue for two-plus years, or GRULAC could try to make do
with only one representative on the Security Council, or,
more logically, GRULAC could select a consensus candidate.
The Ambassador urged that GRULAC not allow Venezuela to tie
the UNSC race to its own presidential election calendar.

BROWNFIELD