OPPOSITION CANDIDATE MANUEL ROSALES' INNER CIRCLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 003175

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR VE
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION CANDIDATE MANUEL ROSALES' INNER CIRCLE

REF: CARACAS 003069

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Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT DOWNES,
REASON 1.4 (D)


1. (C) Summary. While consensus opposition candidate Manuel
Rosales continues to work with the "big tent" campaign team
he announced on August 18, he relies more heavily on a
smaller, less visible "kitchen cabinet" from his home state
of Zulia. Former Zulia Governor Omar Barboza, for example,
is Rosales' closest political advisor, although he holds no
formal campaign title. Rosales also tapped prominent
Zulianos to shape his political messages, to develop his
economic policies, as well as to represent him before the
National Electoral Council (CNE). With the help of such
close confidants, Rosales has so far mounted a strong and
credible presidential campaign. At the same time, his
reliance on Zulianos during the campaign may be exacerbating
differences with coalition partners and could complicate his
ability, barring an electoral upset, to keep the opposition
united after December 3. End Summary.

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The Official Campaign Team
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2. (C) Consensus opposition candidate and Zulia governor
Manuel Rosales announced his official campaign team to the
media on August 18. Showing his ability to unify, Rosales
selected experienced advisers from across the opposition
political spectrum. He tapped former Primero Justicia
presidential candidate Julio Borges to be his unofficial
running mate and named presidential aspirant Teodoro Petkoff
to lead his campaign strategy. Notable campaign members
under Rosales' "big tent" also include feuding Primero
Justicia leaders Armando Briquet and Gerardo Blyde (Strategy
Commission),as well as Timoteo Zambrano (International
Relations) and Liliana Hernandez (Sectoral Movements).
Rosales also gave nominal campaign jobs to former minor
presidential aspirants such as Enrique Tejera Paris, William
Ojeda, and Cecilia Sosa, among others.


3. (C) Only a few of the aforementioned campaign leaders is
actually playing a lead role, according to campaign insiders.
Petkoff heads up a small, tight-knit political strategy cell
to which Rosales is reportedly paying attention. Timoteo
Zambrano is serving as the campaign's principal liaison to
the diplomatic community and Ojeda is coordinating the
activities of the numerous parties supporting Rosales. On
the other hand, Rosales campaign insiders generally accuse
Julio Borges -- and much of Primero Justicia -- of trying to
advance Borges' own political future rather than working
wholeheartedly for Rosales. Rosales' people give higher
marks to PJ dissidents Gerardo Blyde and Liliana Hernandez.


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The Real Campaign Team
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4. (C) Rosales is reportedly a hands-on manager who does not
delegate many campaign decisions. At the same time, he is
relying on a small group of close advisors from Rosales' Un
Nuevo Tiempo (UNT) party and home state of Zulia. This
Zulian "kitchen cabinet" is playing most of the key roles on
the Rosales campaign, according to our opposition contacts.
Rosales also dispatched UNT lieutenants from Zulia to head up
the campaign in each of Venezuela's 23 states. The Zulian
inner circle has helped Rosales launch and sustain a
surprisingly strong presidential campaign that has managed to
consolidate and build upon anti-Chavez sentiment.


5. (C) At the same times, the Rosales core has had to work
through divisions between the UNT and its coalition partners
at both the national and local levels. Leaders of the
electoral NGO Sumate and campaign insiders believe Rosales
incurred self-inflicted wounds by putting so many Zulianos
into key campaign positions. Rosales' coalition partners
currently appear more united in opposition to Chavez than by
enthusiasm for the Zulia governor. During Rosales'
successful October 7 "Avalanche" rally, for example,
participants generally supported Rosales under their own
party colors and banners (Reftel). It is easy to imagine
that the fissures between Rosales and his political allies
from outside UNT would become more pronounced, regardless of
the results on December 3. They also demonstrate how
challenging it would be for the opposition to stay united in

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the wake of a Chavez victory.

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The Inner Circle
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6. (C) Omar Barboza: Despite his low public profile, Omar
Barboza is Rosales' most important political advisor. The
silver-haired lawyer was the governor of Zulia from 1985 to

1989. At that time, like Rosales, he was a member of Accion
Democratica. While his advice carries weight with Rosales,
the opposition candidate has not reportedly given him license
to speak independently on Rosales' behalf. Barboza has made
few public statements and according to one Rosales insider,
avoids public attention because he carries "Fourth Republic"
baggage. In mid-September, Barboza outlined for Union Radio
the Rosales campaign's nuanced approach toward electoral
conditions, noting that while conditions are important, the
primary work of the campaign was to "create a democratic
majority in the streets."


7. (C) Ruben Barboza: Omar Barboza's brother Ruben is the
Rosales campaign treasurer. According to campaign insiders,
he won a number of lucrative government contracts when
Rosales was mayor of Maracaibo and continues to do so during
Rosales governorship. Ruben Barboza reportedly loans his
private jet to Rosales for campaign trips. As President of
the Farmer's Federation of the Maracaibo Lake Region
(FEDELAGO) and Director of the National Federation of
Farmers, Ruben has publicly criticized the government's
agricultural policies and exhorted the government to provide
greater security for farmers. Like Rosales, he signed the
Pedro Carmona decree.


8. (C) Angel Emiro Vera: After Omar Barboza, veteran Zulian
politician Angel Emiro Vera is probably Rosales' closest
advisor. Vera is the political director of the Un Nuevo
Tiempo party and was a UNT deputy in the National Assembly
from 2000 to 2005. A former member of the Accion Democratica
party, Vera was also elected to the Venezuelan congress for
two separate five-year terms from 1989 to 1999. Vera is an
economist and accrued considerable experience on the Finance
Committee in the National Assembly. He played an active part
in rolling out Rosales' debit card scheme ("Mi Negra") for
distributing Venezuela's oil revenues. He is on the board of
the Caracas-based NGO Permanent Commission for Economic
Development.


9. (C) Enrique Marquez: As Rosales' liaison to the National
Electoral Council (CNE),Enrique Marquez works directly with
Rosales and reportedly works alone. Marquez was a deputy in
the National Assembly from the left-wing La Causa R party
from 2000 to 2005. He joined Un Nuevo Tiempo when Rosales
personally recruited him as an advisor. He also worked on
Rosales' successful re-election as governor of Zulia in 2004.
While Timoteo Zambrano is the principal liaison to the local
diplomatic community, Rosales insiders report that Marquez
carries more influence with Rosales and is the principal
campaign team authority on Rosales' views on international
observers and electoral conditions. He is an engineer by
trade.


10. (C) Heliodero Quintero: Quintero heads up Rosales' public
policy shop responsible for elaborating social, economic,
public security, defense, international, agricultural, and
environmental policies for the campaign. As a former
Venezuelan representative to OPEC, Quintero's real expertise
is oil, and he aspires to be Rosales' Energy Minister. Like
Vera, he also played a key role in launching the debit card
program. The fast-talking 43-year old Quintero hails from
Maracaibo, and he is the nephew of a former head of PDVSA.
He works in Caracas as a senior advisor for an independent
petroleum consulting firm. Some twenty years ago, he
graduated from the University of Zulia with a degree in
mechanical engineering.

BROWNFIELD