ROSALES RALLY GIVES OPPOSITION A BOOST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 003069

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL VE
SUBJECT: ROSALES RALLY GIVES OPPOSITION A BOOST


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Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT DOWNES,
REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Summary. Opposition candidate Manuel Rosales,
October 8 "Avalanche" Rally in Caracas, the biggest
opposition event since the 2004 presidential recall
referendum, put some new life into Rosales' long-shot
campaign. The opposition also demonstrated that it retains
residual "street power" and can mobilize tens of thousands of
people on relatively short notice. Allied parties,
participating largely under their own political banners,
appeared more united in opposition to President Chavez than
inspired by enthusiasm for the shrewd, but by no means
charismatic Rosales. During his 50-minute speech to a
diverse group of participants from across Venezuela's
socioeconomic spectrum, Rosales stressed the principal themes
of his campaign: national unity, better social programs, and
citizen security. He also criticized Chavez, ties to Cuba
and the BRV,s foreign aid "give-aways." Municipal police
provided adequate security for the festive event, and Chavez
supporters did not try to disrupt the event. End Summary.


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The Caracas "Avalanche"
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2. (SBU) PolCouns and Poloff observed first hand opposition
candidate Manuel Rosales' October 8 "Avalanche" rally held on
one of central Caracas' principal avenues. Rosales
supporters gathered at 10:00 a.m. at five meeting points
around Caracas and then marched in groups to Liberator Avenue
in central Caracas. The Rosales' supporters surged toward
the grandstand flanked by an enormous billboard bearing an
oversized image of the Zulia governor and his principal
campaign slogan "Atrevete" ("Dare"). Rally attendees were
treated to free bottled water, live ear-splitting samba
music, and a festive atmosphere under sunny skies. By the
time Rosales strode to the podium at 12:35 p.m. to deliver
his fifty-minute stump speech, the line of participants
stretched for well over one kilometer along the closed,
four-lane street.


3. (SBU) Participants from supporting parties, such as
Primero Justicia (PJ),the Christian Democrats (COPEI),and
Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) marched together under their
respective party banners and colors. Members of Rosales' Un
Nuevo Tiempo party were present, but appeared far outnumbered
by the aforementioned parties. Bucking their party's
absentionism policy, a very visible number of Accion
Democratica members attended wearing t-shirts emblazoned with
"Adecos for Rosales." According to one of the rally
organizers, some 200,000 persons attended, double the number
that the Rosales logistics team expected. Municipal police
laughably low-balled the crowd at 7000 (a number picked up by
some wire services). An opposition newspaper estimated the
crowd in the "dozens of thousands," an estimate more in line
with poloffs' impression.


4. (SBU) Rally organizers and participants made a concerted
effort to counter Chavez' attacks on the opposition as
unpatriotic and "lackeys of imperialism." Numerous
participants carried Venezuelan flags or wore clothing
decorated with the national colors. Just prior to Rosales'
arrival on the grandstand, the crowd helped unfurl over their
heads wide swaths of yellow, blue and red cloth to create a
makeshift flag the length of a soccer field. Before
speaking, Rosales and a prominent Venezuelan entertainer led
the crowd in singing the national anthem. During his speech,
Rosales accused the Chavez government of being "run from
Cuba" and promised to put an end to the BRV's "gifts of oil."

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Rosales Goes on the Offensive
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5. (SBU) During his fifty-minute stump speech, Rosales
skillfully mixed criticism of the Chavez government with
positive proposals for change. In sharp contrast to the
Chavez campaign slogan "Toward 10 million Votes," Rosales and
his campaign team emphasize over and over that they are
campaigning on behalf of "all 26 million Venezuelans." More
specifically, Rosales scored Chavez' record on combating
crime and his politicization of the social missions to
provide education and health to the poor. Rosales pledged to
retain and improve the social missions without demanding
proof of political support in return for inclusion. He also

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pledged to expand the government's school meals programs and
to provide more opportunities for high school graduates to go
to college.


6. (SBU) Rosales explained at length his debit card ("Mi
Negra") scheme for distributing oil revenue to the "middle
and working class." Judging from crowd reaction, this
populist proposal was his biggest crowd pleaser. Rosales
also accused Chavez of harboring post-election plans to move
against private property. Rosales challenged widespread
fears that Venezuela's electronic balloting is not secret.
He asserted that the CNE's fingerprinting (digital scanning)
machines do not really work and urged all his supporters to
go to the polls. Predicting victory on December 3, Rosales
insisted that two armies -- the army of the people and the
armed forces -- would ensure that the elections results are
respected.


7. (C) Rosales' remarks were well received and on numerous
occasions he was interrupted by the crowd's chanting
("A-tre-ve-te"). On the other hand, Rosales injected little
discernible excitement or energy into the crowd when he
arrived. A considerable portion of the crowd was paying as
much attention to the convention of fellow attendees as they
were to Rosales. Rosales' delivery also tended to be
somewhat stiff, and when he repeatedly reinforced his points
by raising his two arms in the air, he somewhat resembled an
actor doing a poor Juan Peron in a summer stock production of
"Evita." As if on cue, the candidate even kissed a baby. In
local media reports, numerous participants cited their
opposition to the Chavez government, rather than their
support for Rosales, as their principal motivation in
attending the rally.

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No Security Incidents
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8. (SBU) Caracas municipal police provided adequate security
for the Rosales rally as well as for the five separate
marches to the grandstand on Liberator Avenue. A rally
organizer told Polassistant that a false bomb scare at a
Caracas Hotel proved to be the only security hiccup. A
police intelligence (DISIP) helicopter flew over the crowd
with some frequency, prompting Rosales to interrupt his
speech and ask the crowd to "raise your banners so DISIP can
see you." There were no Chavez campaign events scheduled
close to the Rosales rally, although the hardscrabble
neighborhood adjoining Liberator Avenue probably contains a
large number of Chavez supporters. Local walls sported
Barrio Adentro social mission propaganda as well as
anti-American graffiti (e.g. "Lead for the Gringos").

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Comment
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9. (C) Rosales' successful October 8 Caracas rally was an
important step in enhancing the opposition candidate's
credibility. The surprisingly good turnout appears to have
caught the Chavez campaign by surprise, judging by the
ham-handed efforts the official media has made to downplay
the size and significance of the rally. Nevertheless,
Rosales still faces a tough uphill battle against the Chavez
political machine, particularly in winning over co-opted or
coerced "Chavez-lite" voters and persuading a significant
portion of his would-be supporters to go to the polls. He
also faces considerably bigger challenges making a similar
splash outside of Caracas and his home state of Zulia.


10. (C) The fact that the Venezuelan opposition can still
organize and mobilize tens of thousands of people from all
parts of Caracas may be particularly important after an
almost certain Chavez victory on December 3. "Street power"
may be one of the opposition's few remaining potential brakes
on Chavez' as yet ill-defined plans to forge "Socialism in
the 21st century."

BROWNFIELD