ROSALES RALLY GIVES OPPOSITION A BOOST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 003069 SIPDIS SIPDIS HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER) E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL VE SUBJECT: ROSALES RALLY GIVES OPPOSITION A BOOST CARACAS 00003069 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT DOWNES, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) Summary. Opposition candidate Manuel Rosales, October 8 "Avalanche" Rally in Caracas, the biggest opposition event since the 2004 presidential recall referendum, put some new life into Rosales' long-shot campaign. The opposition also demonstrated that it retains residual "street power" and can mobilize tens of thousands of people on relatively short notice. Allied parties, participating largely under their own political banners, appeared more united in opposition to President Chavez than inspired by enthusiasm for the shrewd, but by no means charismatic Rosales. During his 50-minute speech to a diverse group of participants from across Venezuela's socioeconomic spectrum, Rosales stressed the principal themes of his campaign: national unity, better social programs, and citizen security. He also criticized Chavez, ties to Cuba and the BRV,s foreign aid "give-aways." Municipal police provided adequate security for the festive event, and Chavez supporters did not try to disrupt the event. End Summary. -------------- The Caracas "Avalanche" -------------- ¶2. (SBU) PolCouns and Poloff observed first hand opposition candidate Manuel Rosales' October 8 "Avalanche" rally held on one of central Caracas' principal avenues. Rosales supporters gathered at 10:00 a.m. at five meeting points around Caracas and then marched in groups to Liberator Avenue in central Caracas. The Rosales' supporters surged toward the grandstand flanked by an enormous billboard bearing an oversized image of the Zulia governor and his principal campaign slogan "Atrevete" ("Dare"). Rally attendees were treated to free bottled water, live ear-splitting samba music, and a festive atmosphere under sunny skies. By the time Rosales strode to the podium at 12:35 p.m. to deliver his fifty-minute stump speech, the line of participants stretched for well over one kilometer along the closed, four-lane street. ¶3. (SBU) Participants from supporting parties, such as Primero Justicia (PJ),the Christian Democrats (COPEI),and Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) marched together under their respective party banners and colors. Members of Rosales' Un Nuevo Tiempo party were present, but appeared far outnumbered by the aforementioned parties. Bucking their party's absentionism policy, a very visible number of Accion Democratica members attended wearing t-shirts emblazoned with "Adecos for Rosales." According to one of the rally organizers, some 200,000 persons attended, double the number that the Rosales logistics team expected. Municipal police laughably low-balled the crowd at 7000 (a number picked up by some wire services). An opposition newspaper estimated the crowd in the "dozens of thousands," an estimate more in line with poloffs' impression. ¶4. (SBU) Rally organizers and participants made a concerted effort to counter Chavez' attacks on the opposition as unpatriotic and "lackeys of imperialism." Numerous participants carried Venezuelan flags or wore clothing decorated with the national colors. Just prior to Rosales' arrival on the grandstand, the crowd helped unfurl over their heads wide swaths of yellow, blue and red cloth to create a makeshift flag the length of a soccer field. Before speaking, Rosales and a prominent Venezuelan entertainer led the crowd in singing the national anthem. During his speech, Rosales accused the Chavez government of being "run from Cuba" and promised to put an end to the BRV's "gifts of oil." -------------- Rosales Goes on the Offensive -------------- ¶5. (SBU) During his fifty-minute stump speech, Rosales skillfully mixed criticism of the Chavez government with positive proposals for change. In sharp contrast to the Chavez campaign slogan "Toward 10 million Votes," Rosales and his campaign team emphasize over and over that they are campaigning on behalf of "all 26 million Venezuelans." More specifically, Rosales scored Chavez' record on combating crime and his politicization of the social missions to provide education and health to the poor. Rosales pledged to retain and improve the social missions without demanding proof of political support in return for inclusion. He also CARACAS 00003069 002.2 OF 002 pledged to expand the government's school meals programs and to provide more opportunities for high school graduates to go to college. ¶6. (SBU) Rosales explained at length his debit card ("Mi Negra") scheme for distributing oil revenue to the "middle and working class." Judging from crowd reaction, this populist proposal was his biggest crowd pleaser. Rosales also accused Chavez of harboring post-election plans to move against private property. Rosales challenged widespread fears that Venezuela's electronic balloting is not secret. He asserted that the CNE's fingerprinting (digital scanning) machines do not really work and urged all his supporters to go to the polls. Predicting victory on December 3, Rosales insisted that two armies -- the army of the people and the armed forces -- would ensure that the elections results are respected. ¶7. (C) Rosales' remarks were well received and on numerous occasions he was interrupted by the crowd's chanting ("A-tre-ve-te"). On the other hand, Rosales injected little discernible excitement or energy into the crowd when he arrived. A considerable portion of the crowd was paying as much attention to the convention of fellow attendees as they were to Rosales. Rosales' delivery also tended to be somewhat stiff, and when he repeatedly reinforced his points by raising his two arms in the air, he somewhat resembled an actor doing a poor Juan Peron in a summer stock production of "Evita." As if on cue, the candidate even kissed a baby. In local media reports, numerous participants cited their opposition to the Chavez government, rather than their support for Rosales, as their principal motivation in attending the rally. -------------- No Security Incidents -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Caracas municipal police provided adequate security for the Rosales rally as well as for the five separate marches to the grandstand on Liberator Avenue. A rally organizer told Polassistant that a false bomb scare at a Caracas Hotel proved to be the only security hiccup. A police intelligence (DISIP) helicopter flew over the crowd with some frequency, prompting Rosales to interrupt his speech and ask the crowd to "raise your banners so DISIP can see you." There were no Chavez campaign events scheduled close to the Rosales rally, although the hardscrabble neighborhood adjoining Liberator Avenue probably contains a large number of Chavez supporters. Local walls sported Barrio Adentro social mission propaganda as well as anti-American graffiti (e.g. "Lead for the Gringos"). -------------- Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) Rosales' successful October 8 Caracas rally was an important step in enhancing the opposition candidate's credibility. The surprisingly good turnout appears to have caught the Chavez campaign by surprise, judging by the ham-handed efforts the official media has made to downplay the size and significance of the rally. Nevertheless, Rosales still faces a tough uphill battle against the Chavez political machine, particularly in winning over co-opted or coerced "Chavez-lite" voters and persuading a significant portion of his would-be supporters to go to the polls. He also faces considerably bigger challenges making a similar splash outside of Caracas and his home state of Zulia. ¶10. (C) The fact that the Venezuelan opposition can still organize and mobilize tens of thousands of people from all parts of Caracas may be particularly important after an almost certain Chavez victory on December 3. "Street power" may be one of the opposition's few remaining potential brakes on Chavez' as yet ill-defined plans to forge "Socialism in the 21st century." BROWNFIELD