MONAGAS STATE: THE CHAVEZ MACHINE VS. STRUGGLING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 002998

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPARTMENT ALSO PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/27/2026
TAGS: PGOV PREL VE
SUBJECT: MONAGAS STATE: THE CHAVEZ MACHINE VS. STRUGGLING
OPPOSITION

REF: CARACAS 002963 (NOTAL)

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Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT DOWNES,
REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Summary. President Chavez dominates the political
landscape of the eastern plains state of Monagas and at this
stage appears likely to carry the state of over 480,000
registered voters by a wide majority. Chavez' pet
infrastructure projects and social programs in the state are
having only mixed success, but they are fueling an artificial
economic bonanza and political clientelism that strongly
favors Chavez' re-election campaign. Moreover, despite
competition between them, Governor Luis "The Cat" Briceno and
Maturin Mayor Numa Rojas are throwing the full machinery of
the state and capital city, respectively, behind Chavez'
re-election campaign. While backed by resilient and
committed activists, Manuel Rosales' campaign in Monagas so
far appears to be hampered by in-fighting, residual support
for abstentionism, and severely limited resources. End
Summary.

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Deep in Chavez Country
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2. (C) Poloff visited Maturin, capital city of the eastern
oil-and-gas and agricultural state of Monagas, September
25-26 and met with political party leaders, municipal
officials, VenAmCham leaders, a USAID-supported NGO,
opposition mayors from other Monagas municipalities, and
(briefly) with Maturin Mayor Numa Rojas. Poloff also gave an
American Corner-sponsored speech on the changing American
workforce at the local Bar Association. Poloff's visit came
on the heels of President Chavez's September 23 campaign
visit to Maturin and Santa Barbara municipality. Virtually
every bridge, highway ramp, streetside wall, and billboard in
Maturin carried a pro-Chavez mural or message, including the
slogan "Chavez Until 2021." Almost all of these street
paintings were sponsored by either nominally independent
Governor Luis "El Gato" Briceno or Maturin Mayor Rojas of the
Fifth Republican Movement (MVR).


3. (C) Poloff visited City Hall to try to pin down a
tentatively-scheduled appointment with Maturin Mayor Rojas.
Rojas is widely perceived as a "hard-core" Chavista whose
mayoral slogan is "The revolution within the revolution." He
was recently replaced as head of the MVR in Monagas,
reportedly after other Chavistas denounced him for dodging
corruption charges by accusing his critics of conspiring with
the United States. He reportedly was recorded as saying, "If
attacking Bush works for (expletive) Chavez, then it will
certainly work for me!" City Hall, awash with red-shirted
campaign workers, appeared to double as the Chavez campaign
headquarters. Coincidentally, the Secretary General of the
local COPEI party filed a September 23 complaint with the CNE
alleging that the Mayor had made full participation in all
Chavez campaign activities a condition for municipal
employment.


4. (C) Two of the Mayor's staff aides, seated behind a desk
bearing a small Che Guevara bust, told poloff that Mayor
Rojas was not in, but would call later that day. He did not.
By chance, poloff ran into Mayor Rojas at lunch on September
26 and asked about Chavez' visit to Maturin. Noting that
Chavez informed him of his visit only 24 hours before, Rojas
expressed satisfaction with the reported turnout of some
50,000 persons for the car caravan led by Chavez. Asked
about a possible meeting, Rojas referred to Chavez'
repudiation of "America's actions around the world" and said
he was heavily scheduled with "campaign work," but said he
would call later that day. He did not. The governor's
office declined up front poloff's appointment request.

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Spending to Win
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5. (C) Maturin is enjoying a visible, but artificial,
consumer boom fueled by public sector spending, according to
VenAmCham leaders. The BRV is funding the construction of a
52,000 seat soccer stadium (Maturin is one of nine cities
selected to host Copa America tournament games in summer
2007) and is working 24/7 to complete a long-deferred
overpass on the city's main artery road. Construction is
also beginning on the Venezuelan-Iranian joint Cerro Azul

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cement plant in Cedeno, the northern Monagas municipality
from which Governor Briceno hails. At the same time, PDVSA
is reportedly trying to squeeze off-line contributions from
sub-contractors, ostensibly to fund BRV social programs, but
allegedly to fill Chavez campaign coffers.


6. (C) The government-subsidized Mercal, located next to the
recently inaugurated Bolivarian University of Maturin, had
half-stocked shelves and had few customers. Outside the
Mercal was a covered waiting area that could seat over 200
persons. These benches, it was explained, accommodate the
twice-weekly rush for low-price chicken and whenever white
granular sugar is shipped to the Mercal. A middle-aged,
continuing education student of the Bolivarian University
proudly reported that the university's classrooms were
completed six months after Chavez announced the initiative.
Some 3000 students will attend the university this year for
what the Maturin director calls "citizen formation in defense
of the revolution."


7. (C) While Barrio Adentro clinic construction in Monagas
lags behind the rest of the country, a few clinics in Maturin
are up and running with Cuban and Venezuelan doctors
reportedly rendering services. By contrast, Accion
Democratica Mayor of Acosta Jesus Velasquez said the several
Cuban doctors assigned to his rural district have all
abandoned their posts and are now "tourists." Accion
Democratica Mayor of rural Punceres Municipality Tirso Sosa
said the Cuban doctors in his district are disillusioned and
considering trying to avoid returning to Cuba.

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Not Even a Can of Paint
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8. (C) Prior to being named the consensus opposition
candidate, Manuel Rosales trailed Primero Justicia candidate
Julio Borges in Monagas and his supporters are facing
considerable difficulty promoting the Zulia Governor's
candidacy on the eastern plains. Rosales visited two barrios
in Maturin soon after securing the support of Borges in
August, but his supporters, who had only a few days to
prepare the visit, considered the one-day trip only a small
success. Rosales is planning a return visit the first week
of October. The Rosales campaign team did not open an
election headquarters, a small, brightly painted house, until
mid-September. Finding a Rosales campaign poster in Maturin
is akin to playing "Where's Waldo" in a sea of Chavez
election propaganda.


9. (C) Passing over a long list of potential local campaign
leaders, Rosales sent a Zulia administrator, and a former
resident of Maturin, to head his campaign in Monagas. Local
Primero Justicia (PJ) leaders complained that Rosales'
Monagas campaign leader denied their requests to join Un
Nuevo Tiempo buses going to a Rosales rally in Caracas (the
buses reportedly went half-empty instead) and refused to give
them funds or "even a can of paint" to place pro-Rosales
political messages. PJ activists also said they could have
greater success wooing voters in poor neighborhoods pitching
Rosales' oil revenue redistribution idea if they had models
of the debit card ("la negra") to show voters. COPEI party
leaders affirmed their full support for Rosales, but stated
flatly that they and Un Nuevo Tiempo lacked the resources to
sustain a meaningful Rosales campaign in Monagas.


10. (C) Rosales is getting some informal support from Accion
Democratica (AD),the party that traditionally dominated
Monagas politics before Chavez. Former three-time AD Monagas
Governor Guillermo Call and other prominent AD personalities
are openly assisting the Rosales campaign. However,
consistent with AD Secretary General Henry Ramos Allup's
abstentionist policy, the AD party in Monagas is not lending
institutional support to Rosales. Two local AD mayors told
poloff that they are advising their constituents to abstain
due to their doubts that the electronic balloting will be
truly secret and immune from tampering. Noting that he has
to cooperate with Chavez's supporters in order to secure
benefits for his community, Punceres Mayor Sosa joked, "If
anyone asks, I tell them I am the first Chavista."


11. (C) To date, there have not been any reports of electoral
violence in Monagas. Ironically, political violence has been
limited to pre-election clashes between supporters of Mayor
Rojas and Governor Briceno. Primero Justicia leaders take
credit for re-routing Rosales' marches through two Maturin

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barrios to avoid almost certain trouble in one Chavista
stronghold. They said the Chavez campaign can deploy, if it
needs to, a group of "dangerous" thugs. Chavez'
anti-American, My-Country-or-Death rhetoric is also creating
a climate of fear among the opposition. The same day poloff
spoke at the American Corner, the ostensibly independent
Journalists' Association submitted a complaint to the state
legislature alleging that the American Corner is part of an
American destabilization conspiracy.

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Comment
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12. (C) Monagas is not a representative test of opposition
candidate Manuel Rosales' candidacy. The governor of the
western state of Zulia was not widely known in the eastern
plains state of Monagas before being named the opposition's
consensus candidate. The state highlights, however, the
difficulties Rosales continues to face in mounting a
meaningful nation-wide electoral challenge to President
Chavez. Chavez' popularity in Monagas has been eroded by the
in-fighting and widely perceived corruption among Chavistas
in the state. Nevertheless, Chavistas enjoy virtually
complete control over government institutions, and they have
essentially merged local government with the president's
re-election campaign. Backed by a public spending boom and a
coercive electoral machine, Chavez appears poised to secure a
mix of true believers and co-opted voters to secure a broad
majority of Monagas voters. The struggling Rosales campaign
is not only fighting the Chavez electoral machine, but also
confronting a strong absentionist undercurrent among many of
its would-be supporters.

BROWNFIELD