MEETING WITH NATIONAL ASSEMBLY DEPUTY CALIXTO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 002911

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPARTMENT ALSO PASS AID/OTI (PORTER)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL VE
SUBJECT: MEETING WITH NATIONAL ASSEMBLY DEPUTY CALIXTO
ORTEGA - SEPTEMBER 8

CARACAS 00002911 001.3 OF 002


Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR DAN LAWTON,
REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Summary. MVR National Assembly Deputy and Chavez
Campaign Coordinator in Maracaibo Calixto Ortega told
PolCouns September 8 that President Chavez and his campaign
team are remobilizing their nation-wide political machine and
are confident of victory on December 3. PolCouns raised
concerns about Chavista electoral violence, but Ortega merely
called the rock-and-bottle throwing incidents against
opposition candidate Rosales a "shame" and said he expected
more of the same. Ortega predicted that Chavez would seek
changes to the Constitution in 2007, including an amendment
that would allow Chavez to run, at a minimum, for a third
term. He also said he expected the National Assembly to wait
to pass a controversial National Police Law until after the
presidential election. Ortega expressed a continued
willingness to engage with the USG and said he and other NA
Deputies hope to revive inter-parliamentary links with their
U.S. counterparts in 2007. End Summary.

--------------
Chavez' Election Campaign
--------------


2. (C) Fifth Republic Movement (MVR) National Assembly Deputy
Calixto Ortega met September 8 with PolCouns and Poloff.
Ortega is also serving as President Chavez' campaign manager
in Maracaibo. Ortega said the Chavez campaign is really just
beginning to reactivate its nation-wide party apparatus and
can count on 35 percent of the electorate to be "immovable"
Chavez voters. He predicted that Chavez would barnstorm
around Venezuela in the coming months with all the trappings
of an incumbent president, "not as the dark horse candidate
he was in 1998." He also said Chavez, who held a rally in
Maracaibo September 6, would return to opposition candidate
Manuel Rosales' home state of Zulia to force Rosales to tend
to his home stronghold.


3. (C) Ortega said the Chavez campaign welcomes the Rosales
candidacy, implying both that Rosales could not win the
December 3 election, but would lend considerable legitimacy
to it. He said the biggest MVR concern is abstentionism
among probable Chavez voters and noted that even during the
2004 Recall Referendum, 35 percent of the electorate did not
vote. PolCouns raised with Ortega concerns about Chavista
rock-and-bottle attacks on Rosales and his supporters.
Ortega responded non-chalantly, calling the attacks a
"shame," but predicted that given the polarization in
Venezuelan politics, similar attacks are likely, especially
in Caracas. (Note: Small groups of Chavistas subsequently
threw debris at Rosales supporters in Cuy, Miranda, on
September 16 and outside the Carapita metro station in
Caracas on September 19).

--------------
Constituent Assembly
--------------


4. (C) Looking confidently past the election, Ortega also
predicted that Chavez would seek to amend the 1999
Constitution in 2007, with a view toward holding a referendum
on a package of new amendments in 2008. Ortega declined to
specify what changes Chavez intends to make, but conceded
that Chavez wanted to amend the Constitution to allow Chavez
to run for at least a third term and possibly permitting
indefinite succession. Under this scenario, Ortega did not
expect Chavez to call new parliamentary elections in 2007.
He said the opposition chose to boycott the parliamentary
elections in December 2005 and must live with the
consequences of that decision.

--------------
National Police Law
--------------


5. (C) As Vice-President of the National Assembly Commission
on Crime, Ortega has been at the forefront of government
efforts to pass a National Police Law. The government's
proposal has been widely criticized by the opposition as an
effort to concentrate more authority with the central
government and as a means to debilitate opposition governors
and mayors. The law appears to have also spurred divisions
within the MVR and its allied parties, which have not been
able to pass the reform since it was first submitted in 2004.

CARACAS 00002911 002.3 OF 002


Ortega conceded that crime is the issue hurting the
government most going into the presidential election. He
said the new law is badly needed to establish "norms"
regulating all of Venezuela's many police forces, but
predicted the National Assembly would wait to pass the new
law until after the presidential election to avoid
"politicizing" the issue any more.

--------------
Outreach to U.S. Congress
--------------


6. (C) Ortega said that he and other Chavista legislators
would try to revive the inter-parliamentary friendship
association ("Boston Group") with U.S. members of Congress
after the December 3 elections. He also said the Venezuelan
group would try to entice former opposition Venezuelan
parliamentarians to participate in an effort to give the
Venezuelan side more legitimacy. Noting that he enjoyed his
numerous visits to Washington to "tell our side of the
story," he added that new Vice Minister for North AMERICA and
Multilateral Affairs Jorge Valero, then Ambassador to the
OAS, became close to Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro through
such parliamentary visits to Washington.

BROWNFIELD