MEETING WITH NATIONAL ASSEMBLY DEPUTY CALIXTO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 002911 SIPDIS SIPDIS HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DEPARTMENT ALSO PASS AID/OTI (PORTER) E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL VE SUBJECT: MEETING WITH NATIONAL ASSEMBLY DEPUTY CALIXTO ORTEGA - SEPTEMBER 8 CARACAS 00002911 001.3 OF 002 Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR DAN LAWTON, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) Summary. MVR National Assembly Deputy and Chavez Campaign Coordinator in Maracaibo Calixto Ortega told PolCouns September 8 that President Chavez and his campaign team are remobilizing their nation-wide political machine and are confident of victory on December 3. PolCouns raised concerns about Chavista electoral violence, but Ortega merely called the rock-and-bottle throwing incidents against opposition candidate Rosales a "shame" and said he expected more of the same. Ortega predicted that Chavez would seek changes to the Constitution in 2007, including an amendment that would allow Chavez to run, at a minimum, for a third term. He also said he expected the National Assembly to wait to pass a controversial National Police Law until after the presidential election. Ortega expressed a continued willingness to engage with the USG and said he and other NA Deputies hope to revive inter-parliamentary links with their U.S. counterparts in 2007. End Summary. -------------- Chavez' Election Campaign -------------- ¶2. (C) Fifth Republic Movement (MVR) National Assembly Deputy Calixto Ortega met September 8 with PolCouns and Poloff. Ortega is also serving as President Chavez' campaign manager in Maracaibo. Ortega said the Chavez campaign is really just beginning to reactivate its nation-wide party apparatus and can count on 35 percent of the electorate to be "immovable" Chavez voters. He predicted that Chavez would barnstorm around Venezuela in the coming months with all the trappings of an incumbent president, "not as the dark horse candidate he was in 1998." He also said Chavez, who held a rally in Maracaibo September 6, would return to opposition candidate Manuel Rosales' home state of Zulia to force Rosales to tend to his home stronghold. ¶3. (C) Ortega said the Chavez campaign welcomes the Rosales candidacy, implying both that Rosales could not win the December 3 election, but would lend considerable legitimacy to it. He said the biggest MVR concern is abstentionism among probable Chavez voters and noted that even during the 2004 Recall Referendum, 35 percent of the electorate did not vote. PolCouns raised with Ortega concerns about Chavista rock-and-bottle attacks on Rosales and his supporters. Ortega responded non-chalantly, calling the attacks a "shame," but predicted that given the polarization in Venezuelan politics, similar attacks are likely, especially in Caracas. (Note: Small groups of Chavistas subsequently threw debris at Rosales supporters in Cuy, Miranda, on September 16 and outside the Carapita metro station in Caracas on September 19). -------------- Constituent Assembly -------------- ¶4. (C) Looking confidently past the election, Ortega also predicted that Chavez would seek to amend the 1999 Constitution in 2007, with a view toward holding a referendum on a package of new amendments in 2008. Ortega declined to specify what changes Chavez intends to make, but conceded that Chavez wanted to amend the Constitution to allow Chavez to run for at least a third term and possibly permitting indefinite succession. Under this scenario, Ortega did not expect Chavez to call new parliamentary elections in 2007. He said the opposition chose to boycott the parliamentary elections in December 2005 and must live with the consequences of that decision. -------------- National Police Law -------------- ¶5. (C) As Vice-President of the National Assembly Commission on Crime, Ortega has been at the forefront of government efforts to pass a National Police Law. The government's proposal has been widely criticized by the opposition as an effort to concentrate more authority with the central government and as a means to debilitate opposition governors and mayors. The law appears to have also spurred divisions within the MVR and its allied parties, which have not been able to pass the reform since it was first submitted in 2004. CARACAS 00002911 002.3 OF 002 Ortega conceded that crime is the issue hurting the government most going into the presidential election. He said the new law is badly needed to establish "norms" regulating all of Venezuela's many police forces, but predicted the National Assembly would wait to pass the new law until after the presidential election to avoid "politicizing" the issue any more. -------------- Outreach to U.S. Congress -------------- ¶6. (C) Ortega said that he and other Chavista legislators would try to revive the inter-parliamentary friendship association ("Boston Group") with U.S. members of Congress after the December 3 elections. He also said the Venezuelan group would try to entice former opposition Venezuelan parliamentarians to participate in an effort to give the Venezuelan side more legitimacy. Noting that he enjoyed his numerous visits to Washington to "tell our side of the story," he added that new Vice Minister for North America and Multilateral Affairs Jorge Valero, then Ambassador to the OAS, became close to Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro through such parliamentary visits to Washington. BROWNFIELD