ELECTION VIOLENCE: CHAVISTAS ATTACK ROSALES MARCHES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 002827

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPARTMENT ALSO PASS AID/OTI (PORTER)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/13/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM VE
SUBJECT: ELECTION VIOLENCE: CHAVISTAS ATTACK ROSALES MARCHES


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Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT DOWNES,
REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Summary. While Venezuela has generally been less
prone to electoral violence than its Andean neighbors,
President Chavez may be starting to re-write Venezuela's
unwritten election rules. Chavista rock-and-bottle attacks
on Rosales campaign events in Vargas and in Caracas September
5 and 7 underscore the Chavez camp's determination to test
the mettle of the opposition's consensus candidate,
particularly in traditional MVR strongholds. Rosales
publicly denounced the attacks and has been pressing ahead
with planned campaign rallies without further incidents so
far. An MVR Deputy told PolCouns that such "unfortunate"
attacks are likely to continue. Venezuelan Cardinal Urosa
issued a September 10 public appeal asking Venezuelans to
avoid further electoral confrontations. End Summary.

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The Incidents, To Date
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2. (SBU) On September 5 small groups of Chavistas threw
stones and bottles at a Rosales march in the state of Vargas,
reportedly hitting former presidential candidate Roberto
Smith and forcing at least one other Rosales supporter to
seek medical treatment. Similarly, on September 5, small
groups of Chavistas threw stones at a Rosales car caravan in
the poor Caracas neighborhood of Catia, resulting in at least
five injuries. Gunshots were also apparently fired, although
no one was wounded by gunfire. Rosales campaign officials
have also accused workers from the Libertador Municipality in
Caracas of defacing their candidate's campaign posters.


3. (C) According to Hector Alonso and Carlos Ocariz, two
members of the Rosales campaign team, the National Guard and
police did not act to prevent the attacks, and in Catia, were
complicit. (Note: TV coverage showed uniformed policemen
appearing to try to help protect marchers; in addition, media
reports indicated that policemen were injured). Alonso told
poloff September 7 that he believed the Chavez camp is
actively trying to prevent Rosales from entering poor
neighborhoods for fear that he would pick up votes there.
Ocariz likened the attacks to small "guerrilla-like"
assaults, not large-scale spontaneous mob violence. He told
poloffs September 14 that if Rosales continues to gain
popular support, the Rosales camp fully expects more attacks
by Chavistas. Marcel Graniel of Globovision told Charge
September 13 that his reporters in Catia and other barrios
confirmed that Rosales' campaign visits have so far elicited
surprisingly large turnouts.


4. (C) Consensus opposition candidate Manuel Rosales called a
September 7 press conference to denounce the attacks on him
and his supporters. He promised to continue to return to the
barrios of Venezuela, stressing that he is "not afraid of
anything or anyone." At the same time, Rosales said
President Chavez should be held responsible if anything
should happen to him or one of his campaign leaders. On
September 8, Rosales, with considerably better police
protection, stumped in the hardscrabble Petare barrio in
western Caracas. He has not yet been confronted with any
further election violence since the first two incidents.


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Government Denials
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5. (SBU) Senior BVR officials quickly denied any government
involvement in the incidents. Minister of Interior and
Justice Jessie Chacon told a September 7 press conference
that he believed the attacks in Catia originated with
Rosales' supporters and claimed that there is no proof that
Chavez supporters used violence in response. Chacon publicly
guaranteed Rosales' safety, noting that Rosales will make it
to election day on December 3 unless "he himself withdraws."
Pro-government daily "Vea" first covered the Catia attacks in
a September 8 article headlined "Residents of Catia reject
provocation of Rosales" and in a follow-on September 9
article claimed that Accion Democratica absentionists were
behind the Catia rock-and-bottle throwing.


6. (C) PolCouns raised concerns about Chavista election
violence September 8 with MVR National Assembly Deputy
Calixto Ortega. Ortega said such attacks are a "shame," but

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nevertheless predicted that similar attacks are likely in the
future, particularly in Caracas. He implied that some
electoral violence is unavoidable in a polarized political
environment. However, television coverage of the Catia
incident and ensuing broad negative press coverage of
electoral violence may have led the Bolivarians to back off
for the moment.

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The Catholic Church Weighs In
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7. (SBU) Venezuela's only Cardinal, Caracas Archbishop Jorge
Urosa Savino, issued a September 10 public appeal urging
Venezuelans to avoid political confrontation. Cardinal Urosa
said, "I believe that bottles, rocks, and bullets, or
whatever else, are not the best means by which we can live in
peace and achieve the democratic elections that we all want."
He also asked Venezuelans to search for understanding and
"legitimate electoral competition" consistent with respect
for others and the democratic rights of all Venezuelans.
Cardinal Urosa, unlike his predecessor, has refrained from
commenting very much on public events, and his comments on
election violence attracted considerable media attention.

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