ELECTION VIOLENCE: CHAVISTAS ATTACK ROSALES MARCHES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 002827 SIPDIS SIPDIS HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DEPARTMENT ALSO PASS AID/OTI (PORTER) E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/13/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM VE SUBJECT: ELECTION VIOLENCE: CHAVISTAS ATTACK ROSALES MARCHES CARACAS 00002827 001.3 OF 002 Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT DOWNES, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) Summary. While Venezuela has generally been less prone to electoral violence than its Andean neighbors, President Chavez may be starting to re-write Venezuela's unwritten election rules. Chavista rock-and-bottle attacks on Rosales campaign events in Vargas and in Caracas September 5 and 7 underscore the Chavez camp's determination to test the mettle of the opposition's consensus candidate, particularly in traditional MVR strongholds. Rosales publicly denounced the attacks and has been pressing ahead with planned campaign rallies without further incidents so far. An MVR Deputy told PolCouns that such "unfortunate" attacks are likely to continue. Venezuelan Cardinal Urosa issued a September 10 public appeal asking Venezuelans to avoid further electoral confrontations. End Summary. -------------- The Incidents, To Date -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On September 5 small groups of Chavistas threw stones and bottles at a Rosales march in the state of Vargas, reportedly hitting former presidential candidate Roberto Smith and forcing at least one other Rosales supporter to seek medical treatment. Similarly, on September 5, small groups of Chavistas threw stones at a Rosales car caravan in the poor Caracas neighborhood of Catia, resulting in at least five injuries. Gunshots were also apparently fired, although no one was wounded by gunfire. Rosales campaign officials have also accused workers from the Libertador Municipality in Caracas of defacing their candidate's campaign posters. ¶3. (C) According to Hector Alonso and Carlos Ocariz, two members of the Rosales campaign team, the National Guard and police did not act to prevent the attacks, and in Catia, were complicit. (Note: TV coverage showed uniformed policemen appearing to try to help protect marchers; in addition, media reports indicated that policemen were injured). Alonso told poloff September 7 that he believed the Chavez camp is actively trying to prevent Rosales from entering poor neighborhoods for fear that he would pick up votes there. Ocariz likened the attacks to small "guerrilla-like" assaults, not large-scale spontaneous mob violence. He told poloffs September 14 that if Rosales continues to gain popular support, the Rosales camp fully expects more attacks by Chavistas. Marcel Graniel of Globovision told Charge September 13 that his reporters in Catia and other barrios confirmed that Rosales' campaign visits have so far elicited surprisingly large turnouts. ¶4. (C) Consensus opposition candidate Manuel Rosales called a September 7 press conference to denounce the attacks on him and his supporters. He promised to continue to return to the barrios of Venezuela, stressing that he is "not afraid of anything or anyone." At the same time, Rosales said President Chavez should be held responsible if anything should happen to him or one of his campaign leaders. On September 8, Rosales, with considerably better police protection, stumped in the hardscrabble Petare barrio in western Caracas. He has not yet been confronted with any further election violence since the first two incidents. -------------- Government Denials -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Senior BVR officials quickly denied any government involvement in the incidents. Minister of Interior and Justice Jessie Chacon told a September 7 press conference that he believed the attacks in Catia originated with Rosales' supporters and claimed that there is no proof that Chavez supporters used violence in response. Chacon publicly guaranteed Rosales' safety, noting that Rosales will make it to election day on December 3 unless "he himself withdraws." Pro-government daily "Vea" first covered the Catia attacks in a September 8 article headlined "Residents of Catia reject provocation of Rosales" and in a follow-on September 9 article claimed that Accion Democratica absentionists were behind the Catia rock-and-bottle throwing. ¶6. (C) PolCouns raised concerns about Chavista election violence September 8 with MVR National Assembly Deputy Calixto Ortega. Ortega said such attacks are a "shame," but CARACAS 00002827 002.3 OF 002 nevertheless predicted that similar attacks are likely in the future, particularly in Caracas. He implied that some electoral violence is unavoidable in a polarized political environment. However, television coverage of the Catia incident and ensuing broad negative press coverage of electoral violence may have led the Bolivarians to back off for the moment. -------------- The Catholic Church Weighs In -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Venezuela's only Cardinal, Caracas Archbishop Jorge Urosa Savino, issued a September 10 public appeal urging Venezuelans to avoid political confrontation. Cardinal Urosa said, "I believe that bottles, rocks, and bullets, or whatever else, are not the best means by which we can live in peace and achieve the democratic elections that we all want." He also asked Venezuelans to search for understanding and "legitimate electoral competition" consistent with respect for others and the democratic rights of all Venezuelans. Cardinal Urosa, unlike his predecessor, has refrained from commenting very much on public events, and his comments on election violence attracted considerable media attention. WHITAKER