AD LEADERSHIP STILL AT WAR WITH ITSELF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 002621

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2016
TAGS: ELAB KDEM PGOV VE
SUBJECT: AD LEADERSHIP STILL AT WAR WITH ITSELF

REF: A. CARACAS 002414

B. CARACAS 003137

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Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT R. DOWNES,
REASON 1.4 (D)

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Summary
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1. (C) Accion Democratica (AD) is still divided over
whether to boycott the December 3 presidential election.
Secretary General Henry Ramos Allup rammed through a party

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line that it will abstain from the vote, but defections from
the abstentionist camp, particularly at the rank and file
level, continue apace. Consensus opposition candidate Manuel
Rosales will likely be able to capitalize on the AD
infighting, not only in terms of votes in the December 3
elections, but particularly if disaffected party members are
driven into the arms of his party, Un Nuevo Tiempo (UNT).
Reluctance of many AD leaders to campaign actively on
Rosales' behalf might be a boon for the former adeco if it
means he can attract votes from what remains the opposition's
largest party without further tarnishing his image by being
closely associated with the largely discredited leadership
cadre. End Summary.

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Abstention the Official Policy
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2. (C) Accion Democratica (AD) continues to battle--with
itself--over whether to boycott the December 3 presidential
election. Since the August 7 general convention of the
party's National Directing Committee (CDN) and his subsequent
announcement that the party will abstain from the vote, AD
Secretary General Henry Ramos Allup has said AD will not

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throw its weight behind Un Nuevo Tiempo presidential
candidate Manuel Rosales (Ref A). On August 29, AD's
National Executive Committee, led by Ramos Allup, decided to
apply unspecified sanctions to former AD National Assembly
deputy Alfonso Marquina, who has been the most vocal
proponent of the pro-participation line, as well as several
other AD politicos, mayors, and labor leaders, including
Manuel Cova. AD also missed the August 24 National Electoral
Council (CNE) deadline to register the party in support of
Rosales for the December vote, meaning that AD will not
appear on the ballot. Marquina told poloffs in an August 28
meeting that some AD members had discussed trying to register
the party with the CNE despite Ramos Allup's refusal.
However, due to the rigidly hierarchical AD party structure,
the only person with the authority to do so is the Secretary
General himself. Ramos Allup is well known for his extremely
inflexible pro-abstentionist stance.

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Pro-Participation Line Gaining Traction
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3. (C) Defections from Allup's abstentionist camp continue
apace, following the example of AD leaders Alfonso Marquina
and Pedro Pablo Alcantara. With Marquina in attendance, AD's
Labor Committee met on August 28 and confirmed its decision
to support Rosales' candidacy, and asserted that some 98
percent of AD workers are in favor of voting for him.
Secretary General of the Confederation of Venezuelan Workers

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(CTV) Manuel Cova, who headed the Labor Committee meeting,
also ratified CTV's endorsement of Rosales' candidacy. The
party's Youth Committee has also reportedly fallen in line
behind Marquina.


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4. (C) More of AD's rank and file have also pledged to
support Rosales. Marquina noted that 34 of AD's 42 sitting
mayors throughout the country have promised to back the unity
opposition candidate. AD leaders in various states,
including Nueva Esparta, Guarico, Lara, Monagas, Zulia, and
Tachira have decided to participate in the December election.
Marquina also reported that, according to a recent poll
taken of AD focus groups, some 82 percent of regular AD
members are also pro-participation.

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Stormy Skies Ahead
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5. (C) Uncertainty surrounds the recent round of AD
infighting, as well as its implications for the party. In
the recent conversation with poloffs, Marquina noted that the
current spat is another example of the need for Ramos Allup
to depart the AD scene to allow new leadership to ascend to
the upper echelons of the party, but that Ramos Allup
maintains a tight grip over the AD structure. Marquina did,
however, dismiss rumors that he could be expelled from AD,
claiming that Ramos Allup would not dare to take such drastic
action in the face of Marquina's increasing popularity and
strength within the party. (Note: On August 29, AD's
National Executive Committee decided to apply sanctions to
Marquina and several other AD leaders, but it is unclear
whether those sanctions will include expulsion from the party
or when they might be enacted.)


6. (C) Marquina highlighted that Ramos Allup's
abstentionist line poses significant obstacles to the party's
ability to reactivate and challenge Chavez. AD members who
choose to vote for Rosales in December will have to do so
through another party, such as Rosales'. While party members
who follow this course of action will not have to renounce
their AD membership, Marquina did note that this will have a
deleterious effect on AD morale. Marquina opined that a
political party that does not participate in politics does
not, as an entity, motivate its adherents.

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Can Rosales Capitalize?
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7. (C) Rosales has publicly stated that he is not "losing
sleep" over whether AD will support his candidacy. One of
his key campaign strategists, Hector Alonso Lopez, told
poloffs August 18 that Rosales will not try to win over the
AD as a party, but rather will focus on traditional AD
supporters, including those who, like him, became disaffected
with the party and left the party. Marquina noted that
Rosales' past association with AD may help AD voters identify
more closely with the candidate. The AD dissident was also
optimistic that CTV's endorsement of the opposition candidate
will go a long way toward rallying voters to go to the polls
on election day, and that the union still has considerable
sway within the Venezuelan labor movement (Comment: The CTV
maintains that it has some 800,000 members, but its actual
paying membership is probably much smaller. The CTV is
internally divided, locked out of most negotiations with the
BRV and, by default, employers (Ref B).)


8. (C) Nevertheless, Marquina indicated that a faction of
AD leadership remains committed to the abstentionist line,
and fear of reprisals, such as party expulsion, will probably
prevent the majority of more minor AD leaders and members
from actively campaigning on Rosales' behalf. He speculated
that some 70 percent of the AD rank and file in support of
Rosales will quietly vote for him on December 3. A decidedly
smaller minority might be willing to promote the unity

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candidate's presidential bid.

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Comment
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9. (C) The power struggle between pro-participation and
pro-abstention AD factions is not likely to be resolved
before the presidential election. Marquina has since at
least last year been at odds with Ramos Allup and now seems
to be attracting a greater number of AD members dissatisfied
with the decision to boycott and embarrassed to be part of
the only major opposition party to follow that route. At the
same time, Ramos Allup, notoriously authoritarian and
inflexible, is unlikely to alter his public stance,
particularly now that the deadline has passed for AD to
register in favor of Rosales.


10. (C) Rosales will likely be able to capitalize on the AD
infighting, particularly if disaffected party members are
driven into his camp. An ongoing reluctance of many AD
leaders to campaign actively on Rosales' behalf might, in the
end, be a boon for the former adeco, if it means he can
attract votes from what remains the opposition's largest
party without further tarnishing his image by being closely
associated with the largely discredited leadership cadre. In
this regard, Rosales may potentially get the best of both
worlds--strong support from AD voters, including perhaps some
grassroots organizational help, without the "stain" of
official endorsement of the discredited AD leadership. An
official embrace from the AD would give the chavista
organization an excellent talking point to attack Rosales as
one more "Fourth Republic" politico. To date, Rosales has
played this very intelligently, getting some support while
staying out of Ramos Allup's embrace.


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