ACCION DEMOCRATICA DIVIDED OVER ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 002414 SIPDIS SIPDIS HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE SUBJECT: ACCION DEMOCRATICA DIVIDED OVER ELECTION REF: A. CARACAS 002603 ¶B. CARACAS 001026 CARACAS 00002414 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR DAN LAWTON, FOR REASON 1.4 (D ) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Accion Democratica's (AD) public debate over whether to participate in the December 3 presidential election highlights continued internal leadership struggles. One faction, led by Secretary General Henry Ramos Allup, is firmly advocating a boycott of the vote, while a separate group is proposing active participation. AD officials in Zulia have already broken with Ramos Allup in support of opposition candidate and former AD leader Manuel Rosales, and other AD officials focused on their political futures are thinking of doing the same. While we do not see any impending AD split, continued party in-fighting and conflict could dishearten current party members or discourage new recruits. The ongoing debate is also providing Manuel Rosales a good opportunity to woo members of the opposition who might otherwise advocate abstention. End Summary. -------------- To Boycott... -------------- ¶2. (C) AD held a general convention of the party's National Directing Committee (CDN) on August 7 to determine its course of action regarding the December presidential election. Following the convention, AD Secretary General Henry Ramos Allup announced the party's decision not to participate in the election, citing the lack of electoral transparency as the primary reason. Ramos Allup called on Venezuelan citizens not to legitimate the upcoming elections by voting and stressed that abstention is the most democratic course of action given the current electoral conditions. Ramos Allup made his announcement based on a document that was reportedly approved by all 285 members of the CDN. Mauricio Poler, AD's International Relations Secretary and member of Allup's faction, told poloffs on August 2 that AD was firm in its decision to boycott the vote and asserted that the entirety of AD's leadership was in agreement on this and other matters. -------------- ...Or Not to Boycott -------------- ¶3. (C) In sharp contrast to Poler's optimistic remarks, other AD leaders immediately lambasted Ramos Allup's announcement. Former National Assembly deputies Alfonso Marquina and Pedro Pablo Alcantara denounced the call for a boycott and said they believe AD should participate in the election. Marquina also claimed that many AD members were not consulted about the decision and that "it is better to force the government to steal our votes" than give Chavez an easy victory. Alcantara argued that many members of the party believe they should fight for more transparent electoral conditions while supporting the single opposition candidate. Allup responded publicly to the criticism by insisting on August 10 that AD would not support Rosales' candidacy since current conditions do not allow for a transparent electoral process. -------------- Behind the Scenes -------------- ¶4. (C) The decision to boycott the election was not reached CARACAS 00002414 002.2 OF 002 through an AD consensus, as Ramos Allup claimed. Alcantara told poloffs on August 11 that prior to the August 7 convention, he discussed with Ramos Allup his disagreement with promoting abstention and suggested opening up debate at the convention. During the convention, however, Ramos Allup quashed any substantive debate or dissent with his proposal, forcing Marquina, Alcantara and others to go public in order to deviate from the abstention position. Alcantara also said a significant faction within AD supports participating in the December vote, particularly some of AD's 42 sitting mayors, who want to better position themselves for future legislative, regional, and local elections. Moreover, Alcantara opined that the abstention route did not benefit the opposition during the 2005 legislative presidential election and said that in a recent conversation, former opposition spokesman Pompeyo Marquez admitted the same. ¶5. (C) Ramos Allup is known to be abrasive, arrogant and unwilling to defer to other party members who dispute his positions (Ref A). AD's leadership has long been fractious, and its recent inability to come to a consensus--even on an issue as critical as participating in the presidential election--is no surprise. Marquina also reportedly opposed withdrawing from the parliamentary elections and has long been at odds with Ramos Allup (Ref B). -------------- Can Rosales Capitalize? -------------- ¶6. (C) AD insiders tell us that opposition presidential candidate Manuel Rosales may be able to sway some AD members into his camp and convince them to vote even if the National Electoral Council does not accede to all opposition demands for improved electoral conditions. According to the local press, a group of AD leaders in Zulia has already broken ranks with Ramos Allup and expressed their support for Rosales. Alcantara also said pro-participation AD members will work with Rosales, not because they view him as "their" candidate, but as a way to organize and galvanize those opposed to Chavez and revive the AD party machine. Both Poler and Alcantara, despite their fundamental differences over AD's position going into the election, were optimistic in their conversations with poloffs regarding the future of the party. Poler claimed that party membership has grown of late, and Alcantara asserted that the party is "re-activating." -------------- Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) Ramos Allup still appears to be unilaterally driving AD policy, with or without the support of other party leaders. He has become one of the most outspoken advocates of abstention since the 2005 legislative elections, and his decision to boycott the December vote, as well as the subsequent backlash, is another example of the politician's tendency to hijack the decisionmaking process. AD's ongoing public debate will not lead to an AD split, but it highlights the continued leadership struggles that have plagued Venezuela's opposition. Nevertheless, Manuel Rosales has the most to gain from the AD division if the former AD leader can attract the support of AD dissidents. WHITAKER