ACCION DEMOCRATICA DIVIDED OVER ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 002414

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: ACCION DEMOCRATICA DIVIDED OVER ELECTION

REF: A. CARACAS 002603

B. CARACAS 001026

CARACAS 00002414 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR DAN LAWTON, FOR REASON 1.4 (D
)

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Summary
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1. (C) Accion Democratica's (AD) public debate over whether
to participate in the December 3 presidential election
highlights continued internal leadership struggles. One
faction, led by Secretary General Henry Ramos Allup, is
firmly advocating a boycott of the vote, while a separate
group is proposing active participation. AD officials in
Zulia have already broken with Ramos Allup in support of
opposition candidate and former AD leader Manuel Rosales, and
other AD officials focused on their political futures are
thinking of doing the same. While we do not see any
impending AD split, continued party in-fighting and conflict
could dishearten current party members or discourage new
recruits. The ongoing debate is also providing Manuel
Rosales a good opportunity to woo members of the opposition
who might otherwise advocate abstention. End Summary.

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To Boycott...
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2. (C) AD held a general convention of the party's National
Directing Committee (CDN) on August 7 to determine its course
of action regarding the December presidential election.
Following the convention, AD Secretary General Henry Ramos
Allup announced the party's decision not to participate in
the election, citing the lack of electoral transparency as
the primary reason. Ramos Allup called on Venezuelan
citizens not to legitimate the upcoming elections by voting
and stressed that abstention is the most democratic course of
action given the current electoral conditions. Ramos Allup
made his announcement based on a document that was reportedly
approved by all 285 members of the CDN. Mauricio Poler, AD's
International Relations Secretary and member of Allup's
faction, told poloffs on August 2 that AD was firm in its
decision to boycott the vote and asserted that the entirety
of AD's leadership was in agreement on this and other matters.

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...Or Not to Boycott
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3. (C) In sharp contrast to Poler's optimistic remarks,
other AD leaders immediately lambasted Ramos Allup's
announcement. Former National Assembly deputies Alfonso
Marquina and Pedro Pablo Alcantara denounced the call for a
boycott and said they believe AD should participate in the
election. Marquina also claimed that many AD members were
not consulted about the decision and that "it is better to
force the government to steal our votes" than give Chavez an
easy victory. Alcantara argued that many members of the
party believe they should fight for more transparent
electoral conditions while supporting the single opposition
candidate. Allup responded publicly to the criticism by
insisting on August 10 that AD would not support Rosales'
candidacy since current conditions do not allow for a
transparent electoral process.

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Behind the Scenes
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4. (C) The decision to boycott the election was not reached

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through an AD consensus, as Ramos Allup claimed. Alcantara
told poloffs on August 11 that prior to the August 7
convention, he discussed with Ramos Allup his disagreement
with promoting abstention and suggested opening up debate at
the convention. During the convention, however, Ramos Allup
quashed any substantive debate or dissent with his proposal,
forcing Marquina, Alcantara and others to go public in order
to deviate from the abstention position. Alcantara also said
a significant faction within AD supports participating in the
December vote, particularly some of AD's 42 sitting mayors,
who want to better position themselves for future
legislative, regional, and local elections. Moreover,
Alcantara opined that the abstention route did not benefit
the opposition during the 2005 legislative presidential
election and said that in a recent conversation, former
opposition spokesman Pompeyo Marquez admitted the same.


5. (C) Ramos Allup is known to be abrasive, arrogant and
unwilling to defer to other party members who dispute his
positions (Ref A). AD's leadership has long been fractious,
and its recent inability to come to a consensus--even on an
issue as critical as participating in the presidential
election--is no surprise. Marquina also reportedly opposed
withdrawing from the parliamentary elections and has long
been at odds with Ramos Allup (Ref B).

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Can Rosales Capitalize?
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6. (C) AD insiders tell us that opposition presidential
candidate Manuel Rosales may be able to sway some AD members
into his camp and convince them to vote even if the National
Electoral Council does not accede to all opposition demands
for improved electoral conditions. According to the local
press, a group of AD leaders in Zulia has already broken
ranks with Ramos Allup and expressed their support for
Rosales. Alcantara also said pro-participation AD members
will work with Rosales, not because they view him as "their"
candidate, but as a way to organize and galvanize those
opposed to Chavez and revive the AD party machine. Both
Poler and Alcantara, despite their fundamental differences
over AD's position going into the election, were optimistic
in their conversations with poloffs regarding the future of
the party. Poler claimed that party membership has grown of
late, and Alcantara asserted that the party is
"re-activating."

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Comment
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7. (C) Ramos Allup still appears to be unilaterally driving
AD policy, with or without the support of other party
leaders. He has become one of the most outspoken advocates
of abstention since the 2005 legislative elections, and his
decision to boycott the December vote, as well as the
subsequent backlash, is another example of the politician's
tendency to hijack the decisionmaking process. AD's ongoing
public debate will not lead to an AD split, but it highlights
the continued leadership struggles that have plagued
Venezuela's opposition. Nevertheless, Manuel Rosales has the
most to gain from the AD division if the former AD leader can
attract the support of AD dissidents.
WHITAKER