VENEZUELA: OPPOSITION PRIMARY MAY PROVE UNNECESSARY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 002321

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SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA: OPPOSITION PRIMARY MAY PROVE UNNECESSARY

REF: CARACAS 02141

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Classified By: CHARGE' ROBERT DOWNES FOR REASON 1.4 (D)

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Summary
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1. (C) Sumate's representatives have indicated publicly and
privately that preparations for the opposition primaries
scheduled for August 13 are on track, but may be scuttled if
the leading opposition candidates are able to agree on a
consensus candidate. Rumors, fueled by Zulia State Governor
Manuel Rosales and Julio Borges' camps, focus on an agreement
to be made public before the primary making Rosales the
candidate. Teodoro Petkoff pulled out of the race in an
August 4 press conference, but said he would support the
opposition candidate. Borges' insistence that Rosales resign
rather than temporarily separate from his governorship could,
however, prevent consensus, making a primary necessary.
Primary or no primary, Rosales is the front-runner for the
candidacy. Once a main candidate is officially designated,
the opposition's focus should switch back to seeking
improvements in the electoral process. End Summary.

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Primary Still On Track
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2. (C) Poloffs talked August 2 to Sumate's Roberto Abdul
about preparations for the August 13 primary to choose a
single opposition candidate. Abdul said Sumate has raised
all the money needed, staffed 85 percent of the polling
centers, designed campaign ads, are printing ballots, and
will send out voting materials soon. A simulation vote is
scheduled for August 9. He said representation in Amazonas
and Merida States would be low because would-be volunteers
have been threatened. As of August 3, eight candidates were
registered to participate, including leading choices Zulia
Governor Manuel Rosales and Julio Borges. Political outsider
Benjamin Rausseo, commonly known by his comic stage name "El
Conde de Guacharo" (The Count of Guacharo) is not
participating, but campaign representatives told PolCouns
July 31 that they are privately telling their supporters to
write him in. (Although El Conde has subsequently said he
would drop out if another candidate received more support.)
Long-shot candidate Roberto Smith has also said he would not
participate in the primaries, and would continue to run even
if the three major candidates decided which of the three of
them should run.

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Decide Already!
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3. (C) Although Sumate is ready, press reports and rumors,
fueled by Rosales and Julio Borges' camps, suggest a
tentative agreement will be announced before the primary
making Rosales the candidate. A July 28 El Universal article
announced that Rosales, Borges, and Teodoro Petkoff would
soon receive the results of a poll they had contracted to
determine the single opposition candidate. We understand the
results show Rosales as the favorite. Petkoff subsequently
withdrew from the race in an August 4 press conference,
during which he pledged to support the opposition's
candidate. Armando Briquett, a board member of Borges'
Primero Justicia party, told POLOFF August 3 an agreement
would likely be announced the week of August 7.


4. (C) Still, Borges' apparent insistence that Rosales
resign his governorship rather than take a leave of absence
as the Governor had originally planned may prevent a

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compromise, making the primary necessary. (Note: According
to the Constitution, certain sitting government officials
cannot run for another office while in their current job.
The President and anyone running for re-election are
generally exempt from this rule. On July 27, the Supreme
Court upheld this provision, but it is still unclear if the
law allows for a temporary leave of absence.) We have heard
from several sources that Borges is concerned that if Rosales
steps down temporarily the National Electoral Council or
Supreme Court would annul his candidacy. Rosales, on the
other hand, appears to believe this would not happen as
President Chavez is concerned about running against a
credible opponent to validate an electoral victory.
Moreover, Rosales is the subject of several
politically-inspired investigations and does not want to lose
his immunity by stepping down. If there is consensus before
August 13, Abdul said the primary may be turned into a show
of public support for the candidate. Sumate leader Maria
Corina Machado cast further doubt on the primary, assuming
Rosales and Borges reach prior agreement, by noting publicly
"There is no reason to have a primary without candidates."

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Other Wrinkles
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5. (C) Legal pressures against Sumate may also help
determine the fate of the primary. The National Assembly has
launched a special investigation, led by ruling coalition
party leaders Jose Albornoz (Patria Para Todos) and Ismael
Garcia (Podemos),into Sumate's financing of the primary,
which they erroneously charge is backed by U.S. funding
(reftel). The hearings are aimed at discouraging voter
turnout, as well as general support for Sumate. On August 1,
Sumate leaders Alejandro Plaz and Machado were summoned to
appear before the investigating committee, which then turned
them away falsely claiming that the NGO's accountant had been
summoned, not them. In addition, August 4 press reports
indicate a lawyer filed a petition asking the Supreme Court
to disallow the primary on the grounds that Sumate was
usurping the National Electoral Council's constitutional
authority to oversee elections.

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Comment
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6. (C) Regardless of the selection method, Rosales is at
this point the odds-on favorite to become the candidate of at
least most of the opposition. Although as noted in septels,
significant elements of the opposition, including senior
leadership in Accion Democratica, are urging voters to
boycott the December elections and therefore see no point to
a primary. In addition, outsider El Conde de Guacharo is
climbing, at least temporarily, in the polls and may throw
off the opposition's planning. If a primary is held, Embassy
officials plan to informally observe the vote. Once the
opposition establishes consensus on a candidate, their next
hurdle will be to obtain their most important electoral
demand, the withdrawal of the fingerprint machines, as well
as other improvements in the electoral system. Even if they
are successful, the electoral deck will still be stacked
heavily against anyone running against Chavez.

DOWNES