TEODORO PETKOFF'S PRESIDENTIAL BID MAY BE RUNNING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 002183

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/21/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: TEODORO PETKOFF'S PRESIDENTIAL BID MAY BE RUNNING
OUT OF STEAM

REF: A. CARACAS 01997


B. CARACAS 02141

C. CARACAS 01665

Classified By: ACTING DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION ROBERT R. DOWNES FOR REAS
ON 1.4 (D)

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Summary
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1. (C) PolCouns met with opposition presidential candidate
Teodoro Petkoff's campaign manager Francisco Layrisse July 12
to discuss the campaign's progress and the recent rift
between Petkoff, Sumate, and other leading contenders, Julio
Borges and Governor Manuel Rosales, over the primary to
choose a unified opposition candidate. Although Petkoff
entered the race with expectations that he would pose a
significant challenge to President Chavez, he has failed to
connect with voters, and is struggling to find funds and
signatures to support his campaign as an independent. His
campaign team realizes Petkoff's strident response to the
primaries did not enhance his electoral prospects, and is
working to mend relations with the other two candidates.
Still, his apparent intention to remain in the race
regardless of the electoral conditions set by the National
Electoral Council is likely to alienate more voters and lend
credence to rumors that Chavez is paying him to run in the
December 3 election to legitimize his victory. End Summary.

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Long Road to the Presidential Campaign
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2. (C) PolCouns met with Teodoro Petkoff's campaign manager
Francisco Layrisse July 12 to discuss the campaign's progress
and the recent public disagreement between Petkoff, Julio
Borges, Governor Manuel Rosales, and Sumate over the primary
to choose a unified opposition candidate. When Petkoff
entered the presidential race in April, many thought his
previous government experience and burnished leftist
credentials would present a serious challenge to President
Chavez. Although still considered to be a leading opposition
candidate, along with Borges and Rosales, Petkoff has failed
to connect with voters and rarely polls higher than 10
percent.

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Money Woes
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3. (C) Petkoff's campaign, like those of other opposition
presidential candidates, is apparently severely
cash-strapped. Layrisse told PolCouns the campaign could
fold if they do not get money in the next 45 days. He said
potential Venezuelan donors fear government retaliation
should they be discovered supporting the opposition and are
only giving small cash donations. Petkoff has met with
leftist party contacts in Europe and Latin America, but
Layrisse lamented that these trips were not bearing much
financial fruit. They are now reaching out to the Soros
Foundation. He also noted that the Spanish have been helpful
in quietly pressing the BRV to grant more transparent
conditions.


CARACAS 00002183 002 OF 003


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No Electoral Prospects
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4. (C) Acknowledging Chavez' electoral invincibility,
Layrisse said their goal was not to win the election, but to
help unite the 30-45 percent of the electorate that they
calculate is either opposed to or disenchanted with Chavismo.
However, the same fear that has prevented people from giving
money has also slowed Petkoff's efforts to collect the
170,000 signatures (one percent of the electorate) required
to register as an independent candidate. Despite the
candidate's low polling figures, Layrisse noted the campaign
has offices in every state and almost every municipality in
Caracas. He also has support from all of the "micro-parties"
(NFI). Money permitting, Layrisse thought they would get the
required signatures in the weeks leading up to the August
5-25 candidate registration period.

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Not Playing Well With Others
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5. (C) Despite his goal, the candidate appears to have done
more dividing than uniting lately with his vehement rejection
of the Sumate-backed primary scheduled for August 13 (refs a
and b). The campaign team privately acknowledges the
response to the primary hurt the opposition's cause writ
large and lamented that the issue caused even more divisions.
Layrisse was clear, however, that they believe the primary
is a bad idea and that Petkoff will not participate.
Interestingly, he claimed that neither Sumate, Borges, nor
Rosales really wanted the primary, but their public positions
have locked them into participating. Layrisse said the
accord signed by the three leading opposition candidates in
June (ref c) was practically dead, and relations colored with
distrust. Petkoff felt betrayed by the other two candidates'
decision to participate in the primary, and both he and
Borges are frustrated with Rosales' indecision on whether to
run for president. However, Layrisse said the three do talk
on the phone regularly and are working to smooth over their
differences. In addition, Layrisse hopes to restore
relations and initiate regular meetings between
representatives of each candidate's camp to maintain as
strong a front as possible against Chavez, electoral
manipulations.

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But In For the Long Haul-- Money Permitting
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6. (C) Divisions will likely continue if--money and
signatures permitting--Petkoff sees the race to the end, as
planned. Unless there is an overwhelming turnout for the
primary and the vote results in a clear winner, Layrisse said
Petkoff will not withdraw his candidacy. He indicated a
turnout of over one million would constitute a successful
primary. Moreover, Petkoff believes that participating in
the December 3 election gives the opposition more credibility
in denouncing irregularities. When pressed, however,
Layrisse conceded the candidate might reconsider if
opposition rank-and-file see little prospect for a fair vote
and push for the candidate's withdrawal as occurred in the
2005 legislative election.


CARACAS 00002183 003 OF 003


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Comment
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7. (C) Petkoff's campaign is emblematic of the opposition's
general plight, competing for scarce resources and votes from
those few voters willing to openly support the opposition
cause. To be sure, neither Petkoff, nor the opposition in
general, is helping their cause by pursuing the same
single-minded, self-interested strategies that have
contributed to consecutive electoral losses. We can't really
assess the extent or seriousness of his financial problems.
However, it is unlikely that Petkoff's candidacy--if it
survives its current money troubles--will seriously impact
the opposition's electoral fortunes. His determination to
stay in the race will probably cause his popularity to fall
even more as opposition supporters will probably increasingly
buy into circulating rumors that he is being paid to run to
legitimize Chavez' victory.

BROWNFIELD