SUMATE FOCUSSING AHEAD DESPITE NEW BRV PRESSURE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 002141

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/14/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM VE
SUBJECT: SUMATE FOCUSSING AHEAD DESPITE NEW BRV PRESSURE

REF: A. 05 CARACAS 03682


B. CARACAS 00461

C. CARACAS 00339

D. CARACAS 01997

Classified By: ACTING DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION ROBERT R. DOWNES FOR REAS
ON 1.4 (D)

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Summary
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1. (C) On July 13, PolCouns met with Sumate President
Alejandro Plaz to discuss the government's latest moves
against the electoral NGO and their progress in organizing
the primary. Although the trial against Sumate's leaders has
been suspended since February 2006 (refs a-c),on July 12 the
National Assembly asked the Attorney General to start a new
investigation against the organization for allegedly
accepting foreign funding to organize the primary to choose a
single opposition candidate. The charges, which include
treason, conspiracy against the electoral board, and inciting
criminal activity, are largely based on government opinion
disguised as facts. In response, Sumate has released its
budget and funding sources for the primary, and is prepared
to release all financial information, if necessary. They
also subsequently repaid the USD 300,000 DRL grant to assist
in an audit of the electoral registry. Although Sumate may
have the funds and volunteers it needs to hold the primary,
the NGO still needs to address serious concerns about voter
privacy and work around obstructionist political parties,
such as Accion Democratica, to make the vote a success. End
Summary.

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First Trial Still Stalled
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2. (C) PolCouns met with Sumate President Alejandro Plaz
July 13 to discuss the BRV,s latest moves against the NGO
and progress on the primary. Plaz noted that there had been
little movement on the conspiracy case against him, Maria
Corina Machado, and Ricardo Estevez since the trial was
suspended in February (reftels). He said the judge is
organizing the selection of the lay judges (escabinos) and
the trial may start again after the judiciary's vacations in
August. Once begun, Plaz expected things to move very
quickly, perhaps resulting in convictions within 2 months.
Plaz thought there was a slight chance that, if convicted,
Chavez might grant a pardon to avoid international
condemnation.

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. . .While New One May Be Starting
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3. (C) On July 12 National Assembly (AN) Deputies Ismael
Garcia (Aragua) and Jose Albornoz (Guarico)--the heads of
ruling coalition partners Podemos and Patria Para Todos,
respectively--sent a petition to the Attorney General asking
his office to immediately detain and investigate Sumate
leaders for treason, conspiring against the National
Electoral Council, and inciting criminal activity for
allegedly accepting foreign money to organize the primary to
choose a unified opposition candidate. Plaz expects they
will be called to testify before the National Assembly soon,
and he warned that arrests could occur at anytime.

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4. (C) To take some of the wind out of the BRV,s sails,
Plaz publicly released information on the costs and financing
for the primaries during a press conference on July 14. Plaz
said the NGO had collected forty percent of the 1.3 billion
Bolivars (roughly USD 600,000) needed for the event. He
vehemently denied any foreign funding sources and said most
costs would be shouldered by the 50,000 volunteers who are
donating their time. Plaz expected the investigation would
expand to include all Sumate operations so the NGO is
prepared to release information about all of the NGO's
funding sources when they are called before the legislature,
if requested. Given the deterioration in the NGO's
relationship with the BRV over the past couple of years, Plaz
said Sumate had stopped keeping lists of donors a while ago.
Instead, when soliciting donations, they give out Sumate's
account information and tell potential donors they are free
to contribute as they wished and anonymously. That way if
called to testify Sumate can truthfully say they do not know
the identity of many of their benefactors.


5. (C) Plaz gave PolCouns a copy of the AN petition to the
Attorney General. The deputies cite numerous alleged
violations of the Constitution and Penal Code based on public
information. Much of the "evidence" is in fact of the BRV,s
own invention, such as Sumate's "notorious public receipt of
USD 12.5 million from the United States to organize the
primary." Disturbingly, the petition is written such that
anyone connected with the primary--including the opposition
pre-candidates-- could be detained or investigated, and
Sumate's office and equipment confiscated.

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Grant Repayment
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6. (C) As Plaz noted in his meetings in Washington in
mid-June, Sumate had decided to return, without using, the
USD 300,000 DRL grant intended to help finance a much needed
audit of Venezuela's national electoral registry (REP).
Sumate will continue to work with others to audit the
politically manipulated REP, but said the political climate
had deteriorated so much that they had decided to return the
money. Repayment was made by Sumate on July 14, 2006. Plaz
said they would likely make a public statement at some point
in response to the National Assembly's investigation
indicating they had returned the money, although noting that
there was nothing legal or ethically wrong with their
accepting this sort of support.

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Primary
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7. (C) Plaz was reflective, yet upbeat about the August 13
primaries and the controversy they engendered late last month
(ref d). Plaz told PolCouns the money collected to date
would cover the technical preparations, such as printing
ballots, renting tables, etc. The NGO and candidates will
consider a turnout of one million voters a success, although
pollsters have predicted a turnout of anywhere from 1 to 4
million, he said. Julio Borges told Plaz he directed his
Primero Justicia party to get one million supporters out to
the polls, as has Sumate. Manuel Rosales, not wanting to be
shown up by his electoral rival, committed to the same goal.
Sumate leaders are currently discussing how to finance their

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get-out-the-vote campaign and how best to balance concerns
about voter privacy and turnout in the campaign.


8. (C) Sumate leaders met with Borges and Rosales July 12 to
mend fences, and were scheduled to meet with Teodoro
Petkoff's campaign manager soon. Plaz said all understand
that Sumate's "ultimatum" and the candidates, response hurt
all of their public images. They also smoothed over
differences about how to respond to the CNE's decisions on
granting electoral conditions. Plaz seemed concerned about
Sumate's image following the rift and admitted the NGO had
taken a gamble. Still, he said the number of people
volunteering to work in the primary had soared once the
initiative was resurrected and the NGO has had to turn people
away.

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Comment
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9. (C) Some interpret the BRV,s latest moves as a sign that
the government is worried that the primary could lead to the
successful selection of a strong opposition challenger and
undermine its claims about the ills of manual voting (a
debate revived by the manually-conducted Mexican and
Colombian elections). The BRV likely has several goals in
mind, however, including keeping the opposition off-balance,
intimidating voters so Chavez can ridicule the winner as a
representative of the elite minority, and implicating the
"empire" in yet another "evil" plot to undermine the
Venezuelan government through its opposition "puppets."
Sumate's response, particularly its emphasis on volunteer
support, was a clever attempt to recast the event as an
expression of popular will. Their continued transparency in
disclosure of information should also serve them. Still, the
NGO will have to adequately address potential voters' privacy
concerns (i.e. that the government will know who voted in the
primary and punish them) and work around obstructionist
opposition parties like pro-abstention Accion Democratica if
they hope to meet even half of the expectations generated for
the primary.

BROWNFIELD