VENEZUELA: CNE HAS YET TO MAKE HARD CONCESSIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 002095

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/13/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA: CNE HAS YET TO MAKE HARD CONCESSIONS

REF: A. CARACAS 01072


B. CARACAS 01719

Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT R. DOWNES FOR REASON 1.4 (D)

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Summary
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1. (C) The National Electoral Council (CNE) is nearly
two-thirds through its self-imposed schedule for deciding on
the opposition demands it has received so far. Most of the
CNE's decisions have ratified conditions agreed to in
previous elections, such as eliminating the electronic voter
lists, blocking data transmission during the vote, and
printing vote tallies before data results are sent. The CNE
has also informally invited EU observers for the election and
appears ready to approach the OAS. The CNE-sanctioned (and
controlled) audit of the electoral registry advances, while
opposition studies reveal potentially serious holes in the
rolls. So far, the new CNE is following its predecessor's
play book from the 2005 legislative elections and is unlikely
to make any meaningful changes that would jeopardize its
ability to manipulate the vote. End Summary.

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Low or No Brainers
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2. (U) Most of the opposition demands for electoral
transparency that the National Electoral Council (CNE) has
accepted are concessions made during previous elections.
(Note: There are 10 main demands and up to four dozen others
if you include petitions by the minor parties.) For example,
the CNE announced June 23 that it will not use electronic
voter lists (cuadernos electronicos),voting machines will
not be connected to send data until after voting ends, and
vote tallies will be printed before results are transmitted.
CNE directors approved a plan that will result in a count of
at least 53 percent of the voting receipts during the "hot
audit" following the vote. (Note: This is slightly more than
what was counted in the 2005 legislative election.)
Separately, the CNE determined that opposition parties that
received less than 1 percent of the vote last year (ref a)
can wait until 2007 to renew their registration, which
includes the collection of about 75,000 signatures.

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Harder Issues Still Ahead
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3. (U) Pending decisions include the use of fingerprint
machines on election day and campaign norms. CNE directors
postponed a discussion on the machines from late June to the
week of July 9. The Political Participation and Finance
Committee, led by lone opposition-leaning CNE director
Vicente Diaz, has drafted a list of proposed campaign norms
that will also be discussed the week of July 9. Not
surprisingly, the CNE board is reportedly divided as to
whether President Chavez should be able to conduct national
broadcasts (cadenas)--his favorite campaign tool--in
non-emergency situations, or participate in the inauguration

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of public works projects and government giveaways during the
campaign period. Diaz is seeking to regulate other
government officials' participation in the campaign, as well.
The opposition director said July 10 that the CNE may
consider establishing a commission to monitor electoral
campaign content. Media outlets have not been consulted on
the campaign norms yet, but may be, according to Diaz. CNE
President Tibisay Lucena said opposition candidates will also
be given the opportunity to comment on the proposal.

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Update on the Audit
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4. (SBU) CNE director Sandra Oblitas, who heads the Civil
and Electoral Registry Commission, announced that the field
work in the CNE-sanctioned audit of the electoral registry
began July 5 (ref b). Oblitas noted that researchers hope to
interview 20,000 people, more than the 0.1 percent of the 15
million-plus voters included on the rolls as initially
approved by the CNE. The director also announced that the
opposition candidates had not yet formally incorporated their
representatives into the audit, which is supposed to finish
July 31. The delay appears due in part to Oblitas' and
fellow Commission member German Yepez' election monitoring
stints in Bolivia and Mexico. (Note: Opposition candidate
Teodoro Petkoff's campaign manager told PolCouns July 12 that
the representatives are now incorporated.)


5. (U) Meanwhile, opposition parties and sympathetic
consultants have released their own interesting findings on
the registry that raise serious questions about its
integrity. Christian Democrat party (COPEI) Secretary
General Enrique Planas and the party's election expert
Enrique Naime, for example, announced July 7 that they had
detected six types of errors in the REP, including
repetitious addresses and cedula numbers, incomplete
addresses, and voters who live in areas different from where
they vote. Most notable was their discovery that almost 2
million people were listed at the same address. In a July 10
press conference, Planas said COPEI had discovered a
"parallel" CNE headquarters where the fake addresses were
processed and named a general reportedly in charge of the
effort. Studies by others, such as former CNE official
Roberto Ansuini and statistician Genaro Mosquera, have raised
questions about the registry's rapid growth before the 2004
referendum and the CNE's quality control measures,
particularly when removing dead voters. Sumate's Roberto
Abdul told POLOFF June 27 that the organization would soon
begin its own review of the REP, working unofficially with
experts from the autonomous universities (Simon Bolivar
University, Central Venezuelan University, and the Andres
Bello Catholic University).

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Observers Included
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6. (C) The CNE has invited observers to monitor not only the
election, but also the audit. During her trip to Europe in
late June, CNE President Lucena informally invited electoral
experts from the EU, Belgium, Finland, and Switzerland to

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observe the audit. The Finnish Ambassador to Venezuela (who,
as of July 1, is also the EU President) told the Ambassador
July 5, however, that these experts are not affiliated with
the EU or other governments and would observe in a personal
capacity only. Lucena also asked the EU to observe the
election, and EU Mission Second Secretary David Bouanchaud
told POLOFF July 11 that they expected to receive a formal
request soon. A CNE press release states the board has met
with Venezuelan Ambassador to the OAS Jorge Valero about
requesting an OAS observation mission. As in previous
elections, the CNE is also mounting their own sympathetic
group of observers. While in Brussels, Lucena met with and
invited two Belgian senators, Sofia Broarfa, who heads a
inter-parliamentary friendship group, and Wily Meyer Pleite,
a member of the EU Confederation of Leftists.

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Comment: Deja Vu
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7. (C) Just like its predecessor, the current CNE is quickly
conceding to the easy conditions and stalling on the more
meaningful ones. The board may grudgingly concede at the
last minute to some key condition, such as withdrawing the
fingerprint machines, in order to play to international
observers or decrease the chances of widespread abstention.
Still, the CNE is not interested in any real changes that
could interfere with their ability to manipulate the vote, if
and when it should become necessary.

BROWNFIELD