VENEZUELA: CNE HAS YET TO MAKE HARD CONCESSIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 002095 SIPDIS SIPDIS USOAS FOR JMAISTO HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER COPENHAGEN FOR DLAWTON E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/13/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE SUBJECT: VENEZUELA: CNE HAS YET TO MAKE HARD CONCESSIONS REF: A. CARACAS 01072 ¶B. CARACAS 01719 Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT R. DOWNES FOR REASON 1.4 (D) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The National Electoral Council (CNE) is nearly two-thirds through its self-imposed schedule for deciding on the opposition demands it has received so far. Most of the CNE's decisions have ratified conditions agreed to in previous elections, such as eliminating the electronic voter lists, blocking data transmission during the vote, and printing vote tallies before data results are sent. The CNE has also informally invited EU observers for the election and appears ready to approach the OAS. The CNE-sanctioned (and controlled) audit of the electoral registry advances, while opposition studies reveal potentially serious holes in the rolls. So far, the new CNE is following its predecessor's play book from the 2005 legislative elections and is unlikely to make any meaningful changes that would jeopardize its ability to manipulate the vote. End Summary. -------------- Low or No Brainers -------------- ¶2. (U) Most of the opposition demands for electoral transparency that the National Electoral Council (CNE) has accepted are concessions made during previous elections. (Note: There are 10 main demands and up to four dozen others if you include petitions by the minor parties.) For example, the CNE announced June 23 that it will not use electronic voter lists (cuadernos electronicos),voting machines will not be connected to send data until after voting ends, and vote tallies will be printed before results are transmitted. CNE directors approved a plan that will result in a count of at least 53 percent of the voting receipts during the "hot audit" following the vote. (Note: This is slightly more than what was counted in the 2005 legislative election.) Separately, the CNE determined that opposition parties that received less than 1 percent of the vote last year (ref a) can wait until 2007 to renew their registration, which includes the collection of about 75,000 signatures. -------------- Harder Issues Still Ahead -------------- ¶3. (U) Pending decisions include the use of fingerprint machines on election day and campaign norms. CNE directors postponed a discussion on the machines from late June to the week of July 9. The Political Participation and Finance Committee, led by lone opposition-leaning CNE director Vicente Diaz, has drafted a list of proposed campaign norms that will also be discussed the week of July 9. Not surprisingly, the CNE board is reportedly divided as to whether President Chavez should be able to conduct national broadcasts (cadenas)--his favorite campaign tool--in non-emergency situations, or participate in the inauguration CARACAS 00002095 002 OF 003 of public works projects and government giveaways during the campaign period. Diaz is seeking to regulate other government officials' participation in the campaign, as well. The opposition director said July 10 that the CNE may consider establishing a commission to monitor electoral campaign content. Media outlets have not been consulted on the campaign norms yet, but may be, according to Diaz. CNE President Tibisay Lucena said opposition candidates will also be given the opportunity to comment on the proposal. -------------- Update on the Audit -------------- ¶4. (SBU) CNE director Sandra Oblitas, who heads the Civil and Electoral Registry Commission, announced that the field work in the CNE-sanctioned audit of the electoral registry began July 5 (ref b). Oblitas noted that researchers hope to interview 20,000 people, more than the 0.1 percent of the 15 million-plus voters included on the rolls as initially approved by the CNE. The director also announced that the opposition candidates had not yet formally incorporated their representatives into the audit, which is supposed to finish July 31. The delay appears due in part to Oblitas' and fellow Commission member German Yepez' election monitoring stints in Bolivia and Mexico. (Note: Opposition candidate Teodoro Petkoff's campaign manager told PolCouns July 12 that the representatives are now incorporated.) ¶5. (U) Meanwhile, opposition parties and sympathetic consultants have released their own interesting findings on the registry that raise serious questions about its integrity. Christian Democrat party (COPEI) Secretary General Enrique Planas and the party's election expert Enrique Naime, for example, announced July 7 that they had detected six types of errors in the REP, including repetitious addresses and cedula numbers, incomplete addresses, and voters who live in areas different from where they vote. Most notable was their discovery that almost 2 million people were listed at the same address. In a July 10 press conference, Planas said COPEI had discovered a "parallel" CNE headquarters where the fake addresses were processed and named a general reportedly in charge of the effort. Studies by others, such as former CNE official Roberto Ansuini and statistician Genaro Mosquera, have raised questions about the registry's rapid growth before the 2004 referendum and the CNE's quality control measures, particularly when removing dead voters. Sumate's Roberto Abdul told poloff June 27 that the organization would soon begin its own review of the REP, working unofficially with experts from the autonomous universities (Simon Bolivar University, Central Venezuelan University, and the Andres Bello Catholic University). -------------- Observers Included -------------- ¶6. (C) The CNE has invited observers to monitor not only the election, but also the audit. During her trip to Europe in late June, CNE President Lucena informally invited electoral experts from the EU, Belgium, Finland, and Switzerland to CARACAS 00002095 003 OF 003 observe the audit. The Finnish Ambassador to Venezuela (who, as of July 1, is also the EU President) told the Ambassador July 5, however, that these experts are not affiliated with the EU or other governments and would observe in a personal capacity only. Lucena also asked the EU to observe the election, and EU Mission Second Secretary David Bouanchaud told poloff July 11 that they expected to receive a formal request soon. A CNE press release states the board has met with Venezuelan Ambassador to the OAS Jorge Valero about requesting an OAS observation mission. As in previous elections, the CNE is also mounting their own sympathetic group of observers. While in Brussels, Lucena met with and invited two Belgian senators, Sofia Broarfa, who heads a inter-parliamentary friendship group, and Wily Meyer Pleite, a member of the EU Confederation of Leftists. -------------- Comment: Deja Vu -------------- ¶7. (C) Just like its predecessor, the current CNE is quickly conceding to the easy conditions and stalling on the more meaningful ones. The board may grudgingly concede at the last minute to some key condition, such as withdrawing the fingerprint machines, in order to play to international observers or decrease the chances of widespread abstention. Still, the CNE is not interested in any real changes that could interfere with their ability to manipulate the vote, if and when it should become necessary. BROWNFIELD