VENEZUELA: CNE PROCEEDS WITH BUSINESS AS USUAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 000203 SIPDIS SIPDIS HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER FRC FT LAUDERDALE FOR CLAMBERT E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE SUBJECT: VENEZUELA: CNE PROCEEDS WITH BUSINESS AS USUAL REF: A. 03 CARACAS 02906 ¶B. 05 CARACAS 00294 Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT R. DOWNES FOR 1.4 (D) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (BRV) has no apparent plans to replace or restructure the National Electoral Council (CNE) in the near future, despite dismal voter confidence, OAS and EU observer recommendations, and calls by the opposition for change. On January 16, ruling party spokesman and parliamentarian William Lara said the National Assembly will first consult with the public before replacing CNE board members, possibly setting the stage for an indefinite delay on the decision or ratification of the board as is. Ruling coalition partner Patria Para Todos leader Jose Albornoz confirmed the BRV's disinterest in replacing the CNE, but said his party will advocate change. The opposition has been relatively quiet on the issue due to serious internal divisions. Meanwhile, the CNE is focused on preparations for the December 3 presidential elections. While it is unclear if the board will be replaced this year, any change is likely to be cosmetic and unlikely to result in an impartial electoral system. End Summary. -------------- History -------------- ¶2. (C) The current National Electoral Council (CNE) was established by the Supreme Court (TSJ) in August 2003 after National Assembly (AN) deputies deadlocked on choosing a CNE President (ref a). The TSJ declared the AN had failed to comply with their constitutional duty and "temporarily" appointed the CNE choosing four nominees the AN had previously agreed on and a friend of then-TSJ Chief Justice Ivan Rincon as the President. Following the August 2004 presidential recall referendum, one of the two opposition-affiliated board members resigned and the then-CNE President, Francisco Carrasquero, was appointed to the TSJ. In January 2005, the TSJ appointed current CNE President Jorge Rodriguez to his position, named two pro-GOV alternates to fill the vacant slots on the board, and ratified the two remaining board members, resulting in the CNE's current composition of four to one in the government's favor (ref b). ¶3. (C) CNE opponents argue the current board was illegally constituted because it was not appointed by the AN according to constitutional requirements. (Note: The Constitution states the AN by two-thirds vote should appoint a five-member CNE board comprised of three directors nominated by civil society, one named by national universities, and one by the Citizen's Power branch (Attorney General, Human Rights Ombudsman, and Comptroller General). As noted, the current CNE meets none of those constitutionally required criteria.) In their preliminary reports following the December 2005 legislative election, EU and OAS observer groups said a significant portion of the voters did not have faith in the CNE and recommended substantial changes. According to the Constitution, changes to the CNE must be made no later than six months before election day (June 3). -------------- AN Signals CNE Change Unlikely -------------- CARACAS 00000203 002 OF 003 ¶4. (C) Public and private statements by BRV officials suggest the BRV may not change the CNE board, despite low voter confidence, EU and OAS observer recommendations, and opposition demands. On January 16, ruling Fifth Republic Movement (MVR) spokesman and AN deputy William Lara began laying the groundwork for maintaining the status quo by praising the CNE for its "important contribution" to the country during the 2004 recall referendum and citing recent (and unknown to post) polls supposedly indicating that an "important majority" approves of the CNE. Lara also claimed the AN would be making a hasty decision reminiscent of the Punto Fijo period if it replaced the current CNE without first "consulting with the people," essentially arguing for stalling any decision until next year. National Assembly deputy Jose Albornoz, who also leads Chavista coalition partner Patria Para Todos (PPT),privately told Polcouns January 19 that MVR deputies were not interested in replacing CNE directors this year, but said his party favors change. Since then, he and fellow coalition leader and deputy Ismael Garcia (Podemos) have publicly called on the AN to consider restructuring the CNE. (Note: The MVR alone holds more than two-thirds of the seats in the National Assembly allowing it to pass legislation without the support of its coalition partners.) -------------- CNE Actions Betray No Worries -------------- ¶5. (C) Meanwhile, the CNE reconvened January 16 and has shown no concern about being replaced. CNE directors set an electoral timeline for two mayoral elections that will be held in May, and are working on a schedule for the presidential election set for December 3. CNE President Jorge Rodriguez has announced the creation of a committee to draft a new electoral law and a massive door-to-door effort to "clean up" the electoral registry beginning February 1. Nevertheless, CNE Director Sobella Mejias told poloff that changing the electoral law, did not appear to be a priority for the legislature this year, much less replacing the CNE. She said the BRV appears to believe that international pressure to change the CNE is gone or can at least be ignored until after the presidential election. She also doubted that Rodriguez would be willing to work with the opposition to secure transparent conditions for the presidential elections, unless forced to by the international community. -------------- Opposition Focused Inward -------------- ¶6. (C) The opposition still intends to press for electoral changes, despite BRV signals, but is distracted and divided over its strategy. All political parties are suffering internal crises: Primera Justicia is threatening to rupture, Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) is struggling to rebuild, AD is battling internal dissent. In addition, opposition leaders are unsure whether they should focus exclusively on negotiating with the CNE or also prepare a presidential candidate. Former opposition spokesman Pompeyo Marquez and opposition coordinator Enrique Mendoza believe choosing a candidate would strengthen their hand in negotiations. Accion Democratica Secretary General Henry Ramos Allup has suggested the opposition should consider boycotting the election if the CNE is not replaced by early March. Privately, many opposition figures have told us they realize negotiating with the BRV will be difficult. -------------- CARACAS 00000203 003 OF 003 Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) Venezuela needs an authentically fair and balanced CNE that can aggressively address serious flaws in the electoral system and restore voter confidence. According to a recent poll by Keller and Associates, nearly half of all voters distrust the CNE and are unlikely to vote, particularly with the BRV's track record of victimizing individuals based on their voting preferences. There is little prospect that a new CNE chosen by the Chavez controlled legislature will be impartial or transparent, and the opposition is too divided and distracted to force meaningful change. Only continued pressure from the international community, particularly the EU and OAS, could potentially influence the BRV to replace the current leadership and increase the possibility of securing the transparent electoral conditions necessary to restore voter confidence. BROWNFIELD