PRIMARY MELTDOWN?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001997 SIPDIS SIPDIS HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER COPENHAGEN FOR DLAWTON E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/12/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE SUBJECT: PRIMARY MELTDOWN? REF: CARACAS 01665 Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR MARK A. WELLS FOR REASON 1.4 (D) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Despite Sumate's June 27 announcement canceling the primary to choose a single opposition candidate, there is still time to organize the vote, according to Sumate President Alejandro Plaz. Plaz told the DCM that Sumate's announcement was meant to force the leading opposition candidates Julio Borges and Zulia Governor Manuel Rosales to commit to the process. It appears to have worked as the candidates are scrambling now to come to an agreement on how Chavez' challenger will be selected. Rosales told the Ambassador June 28 that he thought the three principal candidates would be able to agree on one of them being the single opposition candidate, with or without a primary. Plaz and Sumate's Roberto Abdul told Emboffs they thought the primary might eventually be held with Borges, Rosales and the four minor candidates that met Sumate's registration requirements. End Summary. -------------- Sumate Cancels Primary -------------- ¶2. (C) On June 27, Sumate announced that there was not enough time to organize a primary, given the leading candidates' indecision. Sumate President Alejandro Plaz told the DCM June 28 that they had become fed up with the candidates' dithering, and made the announcement in hopes of forcing the matter. Roberto Abdul told poloff the same day that the commission the candidates had set up to organize the primary rarely met, and when it did, could not agree on even basic issues such as ballot design. The commission incorrectly figured it could make a decision and organize the vote within two weeks, Abdul said, but Sumate did not want to risk having to postpone the event at the last minute for lack of preparation. Moreover, Abdul noted that only four of the minor candidates had met the 3,000 signature registration requirement to participate in the primary. Contrary to press reports, Plaz and Abdul said all candidates had been warned publicly and privately about the time crunch, and should not have been surprised by the announcement. Our conversations suggest, however, that Sumate may have given the candidates last-minute notice at best. Despite their announcement, Plaz and Abdul said there was still time to organize the event, although not much. Sumate has designed what it believes is a secure method for preventing multiple voting and has identified most of the voting centers and volunteers to staff them. Most of the necessary funding has been secured, Abdul said. -------------- Ball is in Candidates' Court -------------- ¶3. (C) Sumate's ploy may have worked in that the major candidates plan to come to an agreement on the primaries CARACAS 00001997 002 OF 002 soon. Still, the decision may not be as easy as promised. Abdul said the main holdout is Petkoff, who has publicly opposed the primary idea since Sumate initially raised it. Plaz separately flatly discarded the notion that Petkoff would participate. Rosales seems willing to participate, Abdul told poloff, but is still waiting for a Supreme Court decision on whether he would have to give up his governor's seat, as dictated by the constitution. For Plaz, the key to whether there will be a primary or not is held by Rosales. If he agrees, it will happen. That said, though Borges has championed the primary from the beginning, Abdul suspects he is less than sincere. Borges told Sumate he would not participate without at least one of the other leading candidates, but Abdul noted that when Rosales proposed moving the primaries to August 13, Borges refused to consider the alternative date. In the end, Plaz and Abdul thought the primary might be held with Borges, Rosales and the four minor candidates. -------------- Rosales' Calculations -------------- ¶4. (C) During a visit to Maracaibo on June 28, the Ambassador met with Rosales to discuss his campaign. Rosales confirmed that he would be willing to participate, if Sumate would postpone their primary for at least a week, to August ¶13. If he were to do well in that primary (and he obviously believed he would),he would launch his presidential campaign. When Ambassador asked whether Rosales would have to resign his governor's seat in order to run, Rosales said he believed the Supreme Court would permit him a temporary suspension from office for the duration of the campaign. In either event, Rosales expressed confidence that the three principal candidates would be able to agree on one of them being the single opposition candidate, with or without a primary. Rosales was also optimistic that despite the entirely unfair electoral process, the opposition could beat Chavez in December. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) It is too soon to say whether Sumate's ploy will be successful, but at least it caused the candidates to discuss the primary. While the electoral NGO has always ruffled the feathers of traditional opposition politicians, this was an especially risky public maneuver. Chavez, meanwhile, is gloating over the opposition's apparent indecision with the usual smug arrogance. BROWNFIELD