CNE DERAILS INDEPENDENT ELECTORAL REGISTRY AUDIT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001719

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: CNE DERAILS INDEPENDENT ELECTORAL REGISTRY AUDIT

REF: A. CARACAS 01448


B. CARACAS 01287

Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT R. DOWNES FOR REASON 1.4 (D)

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Summary
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1. (C) Via national broadcast June 8, National Electoral
Council (CNE) President Tibisay Lucena announced the proposed
audit of the electoral registry (REP) would proceed under the
terms agreed to by seven Chavista universities and thus
without the participation of the three independent
universities that initially proposed the audit. This
decision in effect rejects the opposition's demands for an
independent audit of the REP. While the final chapter may
not have yet been written, the CNE's insistence on excluding
the independent universities could jeopardize the
opposition's participation in the December 3 presidential
elections. The three major candidates planned to discuss the
matter on June 10. End Summary.

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Lucena Announces Terms of Audit
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2. (U) On June 8, National Electoral Council (CNE) President
Tibisay Lucena announced the terms of the proposed university
audit of the permanent electoral registry (REP) as approved
by the CNE board. Lucena said the audit, which will run from
June 9 to July 31, is designed to complement the work done by
CAPEL in 2005 (reftels) and will include a review of the REP
for inconsistencies, incomplete data, deceased voters, and
prisoners. The current registration process will be studied
as well to ensure that all voters have had equal
opportunities to register. However, it will not include a
comparison of the REP to Venezuela's current demographic make
up as proposed by the nation's leading autonomous
universities (Central University of Venezuela (UCV),Simon
Bolivar (USB),and Andres Bello Catholic University (UCAB)),
identified by those universities, as well as the EU and OAS
observer missions, as a key fault of the CAPEL audit. As a
result, these universities have withdrawn from the audit and
it will be conducted by the seven Chavista universities whose
rectors are picked by the Ministry of Education. Lucena said
the presidential candidates will be allowed to observe the
audit. Lucena also announced a timeline for deciding on
other opposition demands that would tentatively have all
electoral norms in place by July 15. In addition, she called
on presidential candidates to designate their representatives
to liaison with the CNE.

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CNE Decision Shows Stubborn Unwillingness to Compromise
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3. (C) On June 8, Primero Justicia Secretary General Gerardo
Blyde, a member of declared candidate Julio Borges' campaign,
and Hector Alonzo Lopez, from potential candidate Manuel
Rosales' camp, told poloffs that the audit terms do not
fulfill the opposition's demands for an independent audit of

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the REP, and may cause the candidates to rethink the
opposition's participation in the December 3 election. Blyde
opined that the CNE's decision was likely intended to
increase divisions between the abstentionists and those that
want to participate in the election. Lopez saw the decision,
as well as the government's stacking of the CNE, as part of a
larger political strategy to further demoralize the
opposition, relegate it to obscurity, and ensure his hold on
power indefinitely. Candidate Teodoro Petkoff publicly
blasted the audit terms describing them as a joke that does
not restore voter confidence in the electoral process. He
called on the CNE to try to negotiate again with the UCV,
USB, and UCAB and suggested the opposition develop a strategy
for that will preserve the possibility of participating in
the election. Blyde and Lopez told us the three candidates
will likely discuss the opposition's next steps June 10
during a planned meeting with minor opposition candidates.

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Comment
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4. (C) The CNE's decision is not a surprise and represents
yet another lost opportunity to restore voter confidence. If
further proof were needed, it shows that Chavez has no
interest in creating any semblance of a transparent electoral
process. The audit will be merely a repeat of CAPEL's
deficient study and will offer little new insight or
recommendations for improving the voter rolls. Blyde's and
Lopez' observations about the BRV's motivations are on the
mark; in addition, the BRV may genuinely fear the results of
an unbiased audit. The effort by the three universities to
conduct an independent audit of the REP, essential for
transparent elections, was always a long shot. Even when
they first raised this formally with the CNE March 14, most
observers felt the CNE would stall and attempt to water it
down. While this decision appears definite, the three
opposition universities have said they are going to give it
one more try. We expect the government to repeat last year's
pattern of waffling or outright rejecting other opposition
demands to draw out negotiations and continue keeping the
opposition off-balance for the next few months.

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