KEY DATES FOR VENEZUELAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 001448

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SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER
FRC FT LAUDERDALE FOR CLAMBERT
COPENHAGEN FOR DLAWTON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: KEY DATES FOR VENEZUELAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
SEASON

REF: A. CARACAS 01287


B. CARACAS 01072

C. CARACAS 01402

Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT R. DOWNES FOR 1.4 (D)

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Summary
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1. (SBU) With a little under seven months before the
December 3 presidential elections, key dates are coming up
fast for the newly inaugurated National Electoral Council
(CNE). On May 11, the CNE told opposition presidential
candidates it would have electoral norms established by the
end of July or beginning of August. The opposition will have
a busy summer, particularly those candidates who choose to
participate in the Sumate primary, tentatively set for July
16, and then hit the August 5-25 candidate registration
process. The CNE has reportedly set August 29 as the
re-registration deadline for parties that received less than
one percent of the vote during the 2005 legislative election.
The electoral campaign will run from August 1 to December 1.
Parties will also have to choose representatives to attend
the various software and voting machine audits, which begin
August 14. By September 4, the last day those planning to
vote must register, we will know whether the CNE has met its
goal of registering two million new voters. With Chavez'
victory pretty much secured, the process is what will matter
most in this election. There are some rumors circulating
that the government might consider delaying the elections,
but at the moment, these are no more than rumors. End
Summary.

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Electoral Norms by August?
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2. (U) After the National Electoral Council's (CNE) May 11
meeting with declared opposition candidates Julio Borges and
Teodoro Petkoff, as well as potential challenger Zulia
Governor Manuel Rosales, the CNE agreed to decide which
electoral conditions demanded by the opposition it would
accept by either the end of July or first week in August.
Although opposition leaders had initially threatened to give
the CNE until June 3 to meet its demands, deadlines are
seldom respected and the opposition has privately said they
expect negotiations to last until fall.

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Electoral Registry by September
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3. (U) In February, the CNE began a drive to register two
million more voters, but as of May 15 only some 500,000 have
signed up, according to the CNE. Discontented with the
board's slow progress, President Chavez' Fifth Republic
Movement (MVR) has announced it will help the CNE meet its
goal by conducting its own voter registration campaign.
According to electoral law, the voter rolls should be closed

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90 days before an election, or in this case on September 4.
The registry is then supposed to be published in national
newspapers, voting centers, and on-line. Voters will have
one week, beginning September 15, to correct their entries.
A final list will be published between September 27 and
October 1.


4. (SBU) The CNE must act soon if it is to make good on its
offer to allow universities to audit the registry (ref a).
CNE directors are reviewing the universities' proposals,
originally set out March 22, but have not yet met with
rectors to hammer out details and give final approval.
Central University of Venezuela rector Antonio Paris has
warned that a decision is needed before mid-June if the
audit, which will take about three months to conduct, is to
make a difference for this year's election. Paris claims the
universities have begun work, but says without CNE support
(read: access to recent data),it could take up to four
months.

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Busy Summer for Opposition
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5. (U) The opposition has several events and deadlines to
meet this summer. The "pre-campaign" period is well under
way with Rosales (although not an official candidate),
Borges, Petkoff, and minor candidates traveling nationwide in
their bids to become the unified opposition nominee. While
opposition parties debate the best way to choose the
candidate, electoral watchdog NGO Sumate has announced that
it has tentatively set July 16 for a primary to choose a
unified opposition challenger (septel). So far only Borges
and some lesser profile candidates have registered to
participate. Petkoff and Rosales are publicly opposed to the
idea, but may eventually be pressured into participating.
Whatever the opposition decides, its candidate, or
candidates, will have between August 5 and 24 to register.
Campaign season will run from August 1 to December 1.


6. (SBU) In addition to registering a candidate, opposition
parties will also have to worry about re-registering
themselves. The CNE's Political Party and Finance Committee
has announced that political parties that failed to capture
the one-percent minimum vote share required by the 1965
Political Party Law to remain registered in the legislative
election--which includes most opposition parties because of
their boycott of the National Assembly election--must submit
their petitions by August 30 (ref b). COPEI says it may
appeal the decision with the Supreme Court (TSJ) claiming
that the CNE has misinterpreted the electoral law. Still, a
COPEI functionary told poloff that the party does not expect
a favorable ruling, if they get one at all. (Note: The
Political Party law says that parties in danger of
disqualification must renew their registration during the
first year of the next constitutional period. It does not
mention a date by which the signatures should be turned in.)

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Audits and Technical Preparation

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7. (U) The CNE has announced it will conduct audits of the
voting software August 14-31. This will be followed by an
audit of the encryption codes September 27 - October 21. It
is unclear whether the CNE will accept EU and OAS observer
recommendations to give the opposition a more hands-on role
in the audits. A voting simulation is scheduled for November

19. If it decides to take EU and OAS recommendations, the
CNE should launch a massive voter education campaign on how
the machines work in the week leading up to this event.

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Is there a Chance for Delay?
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8. (C) Rumors are circulating that the BRV may be
considering postponing the elections to weaken Rosales.
According to the Constitution, sitting government officials
(other than the current President) planning to run for
President are required to resign their office upon declaring
their candidacy. If Rosales declares his candidacy and
resigns, the rumor goes, the CNE will postpone the elections.
Rosales would then lose part of his political base and the
Chavistas would be able to capture the Zulia governorship.
While it is possible the BRV could decide to postpone the
election, there is nothing beyond rumors to indicate this at
the present. We have also heard that Cuban diplomats have
implied to at least one electoral NGO (ref c) that elections
could be postponed because of USG machinations.

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Comment
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9. (C) This election is shaping up to be similar to that of
December 2005. Barring some unanticipated development,
Chavez' victory looks pretty much assured. So the main story
is the process on the march to election day. What we've
presented is a notional schedule of deadlines, some of may
not be met either because of logistical problems or lack of
political will. The CNE's ongoing discussions with the
opposition and the possibility of an impartial audit of the
registry are good signs, if decisions are made in time to
improve voter confidence in the electoral system. The
government's track record suggests they will probably not be.
Internal debates over a candidate, the fight for fair
electoral conditions, and an occasional BRV accusation,
investigation, or other effort to goad its opponents, will
probably keep the opposition disorganized and unable to rally
for much of the electoral year. The CNE will also likely
continue its tried and true practice of stall, stall, stall
in negotiations over a REP audit or for improving electoral
conditions.

BROWNFIELD