KEY DATES FOR VENEZUELAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 001448 SIPDIS SIPDIS HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER FRC FT LAUDERDALE FOR CLAMBERT COPENHAGEN FOR DLAWTON E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE SUBJECT: KEY DATES FOR VENEZUELAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SEASON REF: A. CARACAS 01287 ¶B. CARACAS 01072 ¶C. CARACAS 01402 Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT R. DOWNES FOR 1.4 (D) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) With a little under seven months before the December 3 presidential elections, key dates are coming up fast for the newly inaugurated National Electoral Council (CNE). On May 11, the CNE told opposition presidential candidates it would have electoral norms established by the end of July or beginning of August. The opposition will have a busy summer, particularly those candidates who choose to participate in the Sumate primary, tentatively set for July 16, and then hit the August 5-25 candidate registration process. The CNE has reportedly set August 29 as the re-registration deadline for parties that received less than one percent of the vote during the 2005 legislative election. The electoral campaign will run from August 1 to December 1. Parties will also have to choose representatives to attend the various software and voting machine audits, which begin August 14. By September 4, the last day those planning to vote must register, we will know whether the CNE has met its goal of registering two million new voters. With Chavez' victory pretty much secured, the process is what will matter most in this election. There are some rumors circulating that the government might consider delaying the elections, but at the moment, these are no more than rumors. End Summary. -------------- Electoral Norms by August? -------------- ¶2. (U) After the National Electoral Council's (CNE) May 11 meeting with declared opposition candidates Julio Borges and Teodoro Petkoff, as well as potential challenger Zulia Governor Manuel Rosales, the CNE agreed to decide which electoral conditions demanded by the opposition it would accept by either the end of July or first week in August. Although opposition leaders had initially threatened to give the CNE until June 3 to meet its demands, deadlines are seldom respected and the opposition has privately said they expect negotiations to last until fall. -------------- Electoral Registry by September -------------- ¶3. (U) In February, the CNE began a drive to register two million more voters, but as of May 15 only some 500,000 have signed up, according to the CNE. Discontented with the board's slow progress, President Chavez' Fifth Republic Movement (MVR) has announced it will help the CNE meet its goal by conducting its own voter registration campaign. According to electoral law, the voter rolls should be closed CARACAS 00001448 002 OF 003 90 days before an election, or in this case on September 4. The registry is then supposed to be published in national newspapers, voting centers, and on-line. Voters will have one week, beginning September 15, to correct their entries. A final list will be published between September 27 and October 1. ¶4. (SBU) The CNE must act soon if it is to make good on its offer to allow universities to audit the registry (ref a). CNE directors are reviewing the universities' proposals, originally set out March 22, but have not yet met with rectors to hammer out details and give final approval. Central University of Venezuela rector Antonio Paris has warned that a decision is needed before mid-June if the audit, which will take about three months to conduct, is to make a difference for this year's election. Paris claims the universities have begun work, but says without CNE support (read: access to recent data),it could take up to four months. -------------- Busy Summer for Opposition -------------- ¶5. (U) The opposition has several events and deadlines to meet this summer. The "pre-campaign" period is well under way with Rosales (although not an official candidate), Borges, Petkoff, and minor candidates traveling nationwide in their bids to become the unified opposition nominee. While opposition parties debate the best way to choose the candidate, electoral watchdog NGO Sumate has announced that it has tentatively set July 16 for a primary to choose a unified opposition challenger (septel). So far only Borges and some lesser profile candidates have registered to participate. Petkoff and Rosales are publicly opposed to the idea, but may eventually be pressured into participating. Whatever the opposition decides, its candidate, or candidates, will have between August 5 and 24 to register. Campaign season will run from August 1 to December 1. ¶6. (SBU) In addition to registering a candidate, opposition parties will also have to worry about re-registering themselves. The CNE's Political Party and Finance Committee has announced that political parties that failed to capture the one-percent minimum vote share required by the 1965 Political Party Law to remain registered in the legislative election--which includes most opposition parties because of their boycott of the National Assembly election--must submit their petitions by August 30 (ref b). COPEI says it may appeal the decision with the Supreme Court (TSJ) claiming that the CNE has misinterpreted the electoral law. Still, a COPEI functionary told poloff that the party does not expect a favorable ruling, if they get one at all. (Note: The Political Party law says that parties in danger of disqualification must renew their registration during the first year of the next constitutional period. It does not mention a date by which the signatures should be turned in.) -------------- Audits and Technical Preparation CARACAS 00001448 003 OF 003 -------------- ¶7. (U) The CNE has announced it will conduct audits of the voting software August 14-31. This will be followed by an audit of the encryption codes September 27 - October 21. It is unclear whether the CNE will accept EU and OAS observer recommendations to give the opposition a more hands-on role in the audits. A voting simulation is scheduled for November ¶19. If it decides to take EU and OAS recommendations, the CNE should launch a massive voter education campaign on how the machines work in the week leading up to this event. -------------- Is there a Chance for Delay? -------------- ¶8. (C) Rumors are circulating that the BRV may be considering postponing the elections to weaken Rosales. According to the Constitution, sitting government officials (other than the current President) planning to run for President are required to resign their office upon declaring their candidacy. If Rosales declares his candidacy and resigns, the rumor goes, the CNE will postpone the elections. Rosales would then lose part of his political base and the Chavistas would be able to capture the Zulia governorship. While it is possible the BRV could decide to postpone the election, there is nothing beyond rumors to indicate this at the present. We have also heard that Cuban diplomats have implied to at least one electoral NGO (ref c) that elections could be postponed because of USG machinations. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) This election is shaping up to be similar to that of December 2005. Barring some unanticipated development, Chavez' victory looks pretty much assured. So the main story is the process on the march to election day. What we've presented is a notional schedule of deadlines, some of may not be met either because of logistical problems or lack of political will. The CNE's ongoing discussions with the opposition and the possibility of an impartial audit of the registry are good signs, if decisions are made in time to improve voter confidence in the electoral system. The government's track record suggests they will probably not be. Internal debates over a candidate, the fight for fair electoral conditions, and an occasional BRV accusation, investigation, or other effort to goad its opponents, will probably keep the opposition disorganized and unable to rally for much of the electoral year. The CNE will also likely continue its tried and true practice of stall, stall, stall in negotiations over a REP audit or for improving electoral conditions. BROWNFIELD