NO SURPRISES IN BRV RESPONSE TO CT DESIGNATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001417

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2031
TAGS: PGOV PREL PARM PTER VE
SUBJECT: NO SURPRISES IN BRV RESPONSE TO CT DESIGNATION

REF: A. CARACAS 01199

B. STATE 77556

CARACAS 00001417 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Mark Wells, Acting Political Counselor,
for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) The Department's May 15 announcement that the
Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (BRV) is not fully
cooperating in the global war on terrorism unleashed a series
of scathing but typical responses from President Hugo Chavez
and his senior mouthpieces. Chavez called the USG an
"impotent empire" whose decision would have no effect on
Venezuela. The Foreign Ministry released a communique
claiming the designation was a political pretext to an
invasion and slammed the USG for a double standard on
terrorism for not having extradited Luis Posada Carriles.
Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel declared that Venezuela
was not interested in U.S. arms, anyway. Semi-lucid General
Alberto Muller Rojas caused a press flap by suggesting the
BRV would sell its aging F-16 fleet to Iran, but Defense
Minister Orlando Maniglia quickly walked back the statement,
taking time to accuse the USG falsely of holding back on
spare parts. While the BRV (and Chavez) is often
unpredictable, it is getting used to "yet another sanction"
from the USG and may let this one pass without much more than
a huff. End Summary.

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CHAVEZ UP IN ARMS
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2. (U) The May 15 announcement that the Secretary had
informed Congress that Venezuela was not fully cooperative in
the war on terror came while Chavez was still in London (and,
ironically, on his way to Libya, which was simultaneously
removed from the state sponsor of terrorism list). Preening
to international press, Chavez called the United States "an
impotent empire" and a "paper tiger" that bullies small and
weak nations like the BRV. He said the designation, and the
accompanying prohibition of new Foreign Military Sales (FMS),
would have no effect on his country. He shot back at the USG
that the BRV was not "buying nuclear arms or rockets, like
the United States does. That is a militaristic nation."
Chavez cast the decision as proof of an impending U.S.
invasion, vowing that any such action would mean
sky-rocketing oil prices for the world.

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Foreign Ministry: Invasion Imminent
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3. (U) The Foreign Ministry issued a statement, vitriolic
even by Bolivarian standards, calling the decision a new
stage in the U.S. campaign to discredit Venezuela and
destabilize the Bolivarian Government. The statement charged
that the USG plan is to use the BRV's alleged lack of support
in counter-terrorism as a pretext for an eventual attack on
the country. The USG, on the contrary, is the true
terrorist, the communique continues, for refusing to
extradite Luis Posada Carriles and the two suspects accused
of bombing the Spanish Embassy and Colombian Consulate in
Caracas. The supercilious statement called the war in Iraq a
"virtual genocide" and, if the USG accused them of not
"cooperating" with it, then so be it. Separately, Foreign
Minister Ali Rodriguez slammed the USG for "slaughtering
women and children" in Iraq. He called the arms sales
prohibition "an escalation in cynicism" that merely
formalized what the USG had already been doing to impede
weapons deals with Spain, Brazil, and Russia. Maria Pilar
Hernandez, Vice Minister for North American and Multilateral
Affairs, said the prohibition of arms sales was "irrelevant"
but said the BRV would insist that existing arms sales

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contracts be honored.

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Rangel: Who Needs USG Weapons?
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4. (U) In a statement, Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel
downplayed the decision, arguing that Venezuela was not
interested in buying any weapons systems from the United
States. He said Venezuela was free to buy weapons anywhere
in the world. (Rodriguez, in his remarks, also listed off to
reporters an inventory of weapons purchases Venezuela was
pursuing outside of U.S. reach, including 100,000 AK-47s from
Russia.) Rangel said the USG's argument that the BRV gives
refuge to Colombian insurgents is weak, pointing out that
Venezuela was currently holding a senior ELN official,
Antonio Garcia, as a result of an agreement between
presidents Uribe and Chavez. Rangel said the decision runs
counter to international law, because no country can judge
another country.

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Selling F-16s to Iran
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5. (C) In an apparent fit of pique, General Alberto Muller
Rojas, Chavez' military advisor, announced to reporters May
16 that he had recommended the BRV sell its aging and mostly
unflyable 21 F-16 fighter jets to a third country, possibly
Iran. Muller's justification is that the USG is in breach of
contract for failing to supply parts for the planes; thus,
the BRV should not be under any obligation to comply with USG
requirements regarding selling the planes to a third country.
After international press seized on the issue, Minister of
Defense Maniglia quickly backtracked, reminding reporters
that Muller was not speaking on behalf of the military and
that there were no orders from Chavez to sell the planes.
Maniglia accused the USG, however, of denying BRV requests
for F-16 spare parts, which Maniglia asserted the USG was
contractually obligated to supply. (Comment: Muller Rojas
is the extreme left-wing ideologue Chavez dragged out of
retirement recently to oversee the installation of
Venezuela's new military doctrine. His pronouncements are
frequently discounted by the general command. Maniglia's
accusation on spare parts is misleading: an April 4-5 review
with the Venezuelan Air Force review showed we were current
on FMS sales, but applications for direct commercial sales
licenses have indeed been left to languish.)

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COMMENT
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6. (C) While Chavez' reaction is ultimately unpredictable,
it looks as though the Bolivarians may throw their fits and
then move on, since the effect of the designation is not much
different from our pre-existing practice of denying arms
sales licenses. The fact that the BRV got a similar message
at the end of April with the Counter-Terrorism Report (ref a)
may also have taken the sting out of this announcement.
Also, with similar sanctions in place for narcotics
de-certification, Article 98, and Trafficking in Persons, the
Venezuelans are getting fairly used to the drill.

BROWNFIELD