NO SURPRISES IN BRV RESPONSE TO CT DESIGNATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001417 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2031 TAGS: PGOV PREL PARM PTER VE SUBJECT: NO SURPRISES IN BRV RESPONSE TO CT DESIGNATION REF: A. CARACAS 01199 ¶B. STATE 77556 CARACAS 00001417 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Mark Wells, Acting Political Counselor, for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The Department's May 15 announcement that the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (BRV) is not fully cooperating in the global war on terrorism unleashed a series of scathing but typical responses from President Hugo Chavez and his senior mouthpieces. Chavez called the USG an "impotent empire" whose decision would have no effect on Venezuela. The Foreign Ministry released a communique claiming the designation was a political pretext to an invasion and slammed the USG for a double standard on terrorism for not having extradited Luis Posada Carriles. Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel declared that Venezuela was not interested in U.S. arms, anyway. Semi-lucid General Alberto Muller Rojas caused a press flap by suggesting the BRV would sell its aging F-16 fleet to Iran, but Defense Minister Orlando Maniglia quickly walked back the statement, taking time to accuse the USG falsely of holding back on spare parts. While the BRV (and Chavez) is often unpredictable, it is getting used to "yet another sanction" from the USG and may let this one pass without much more than a huff. End Summary. -------------- CHAVEZ UP IN ARMS -------------- ¶2. (U) The May 15 announcement that the Secretary had informed Congress that Venezuela was not fully cooperative in the war on terror came while Chavez was still in London (and, ironically, on his way to Libya, which was simultaneously removed from the state sponsor of terrorism list). Preening to international press, Chavez called the United States "an impotent empire" and a "paper tiger" that bullies small and weak nations like the BRV. He said the designation, and the accompanying prohibition of new Foreign Military Sales (FMS), would have no effect on his country. He shot back at the USG that the BRV was not "buying nuclear arms or rockets, like the United States does. That is a militaristic nation." Chavez cast the decision as proof of an impending U.S. invasion, vowing that any such action would mean sky-rocketing oil prices for the world. -------------- Foreign Ministry: Invasion Imminent -------------- ¶3. (U) The Foreign Ministry issued a statement, vitriolic even by Bolivarian standards, calling the decision a new stage in the U.S. campaign to discredit Venezuela and destabilize the Bolivarian Government. The statement charged that the USG plan is to use the BRV's alleged lack of support in counter-terrorism as a pretext for an eventual attack on the country. The USG, on the contrary, is the true terrorist, the communique continues, for refusing to extradite Luis Posada Carriles and the two suspects accused of bombing the Spanish Embassy and Colombian Consulate in Caracas. The supercilious statement called the war in Iraq a "virtual genocide" and, if the USG accused them of not "cooperating" with it, then so be it. Separately, Foreign Minister Ali Rodriguez slammed the USG for "slaughtering women and children" in Iraq. He called the arms sales prohibition "an escalation in cynicism" that merely formalized what the USG had already been doing to impede weapons deals with Spain, Brazil, and Russia. Maria Pilar Hernandez, Vice Minister for North American and Multilateral Affairs, said the prohibition of arms sales was "irrelevant" but said the BRV would insist that existing arms sales CARACAS 00001417 002.2 OF 002 contracts be honored. -------------- Rangel: Who Needs USG Weapons? -------------- ¶4. (U) In a statement, Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel downplayed the decision, arguing that Venezuela was not interested in buying any weapons systems from the United States. He said Venezuela was free to buy weapons anywhere in the world. (Rodriguez, in his remarks, also listed off to reporters an inventory of weapons purchases Venezuela was pursuing outside of U.S. reach, including 100,000 AK-47s from Russia.) Rangel said the USG's argument that the BRV gives refuge to Colombian insurgents is weak, pointing out that Venezuela was currently holding a senior ELN official, Antonio Garcia, as a result of an agreement between presidents Uribe and Chavez. Rangel said the decision runs counter to international law, because no country can judge another country. -------------- Selling F-16s to Iran -------------- ¶5. (C) In an apparent fit of pique, General Alberto Muller Rojas, Chavez' military advisor, announced to reporters May 16 that he had recommended the BRV sell its aging and mostly unflyable 21 F-16 fighter jets to a third country, possibly Iran. Muller's justification is that the USG is in breach of contract for failing to supply parts for the planes; thus, the BRV should not be under any obligation to comply with USG requirements regarding selling the planes to a third country. After international press seized on the issue, Minister of Defense Maniglia quickly backtracked, reminding reporters that Muller was not speaking on behalf of the military and that there were no orders from Chavez to sell the planes. Maniglia accused the USG, however, of denying BRV requests for F-16 spare parts, which Maniglia asserted the USG was contractually obligated to supply. (Comment: Muller Rojas is the extreme left-wing ideologue Chavez dragged out of retirement recently to oversee the installation of Venezuela's new military doctrine. His pronouncements are frequently discounted by the general command. Maniglia's accusation on spare parts is misleading: an April 4-5 review with the Venezuelan Air Force review showed we were current on FMS sales, but applications for direct commercial sales licenses have indeed been left to languish.) -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) While Chavez' reaction is ultimately unpredictable, it looks as though the Bolivarians may throw their fits and then move on, since the effect of the designation is not much different from our pre-existing practice of denying arms sales licenses. The fact that the BRV got a similar message at the end of April with the Counter-Terrorism Report (ref a) may also have taken the sting out of this announcement. Also, with similar sanctions in place for narcotics de-certification, Article 98, and Trafficking in Persons, the Venezuelans are getting fairly used to the drill. BROWNFIELD