VENEZUELAN CNE: "WE WILL NOT NEGOTIATE"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 001287

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/12/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: VENEZUELAN CNE: "WE WILL NOT NEGOTIATE"

REF: A. CARACAS 01152


B. 05 CARACAS 03596

Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT R. DOWNES FOR 1.4 (D)

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Summary
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1. (C) In its first two weeks in office, the National
Electoral Council's (CNE) initial actions suggest it will be
similar to the previous one. The bid of the single
pro-opposition member to head the National Electoral Junta
and Electoral Registry Committee--and thus give some hope for
independent oversight of the election or registry--failed,
and he is stuck with the same less influential position as
his opposition predecessor. The CNE signaled that it might
be a little more flexible in meeting the opposition's 10
demands when it called on national universities to submit
proposals for another audit of the electoral registry,
invited opposition candidates for discussions, and announced
that it would count 47 percent of the voting receipts during
the December 3 presidential election. CNE President Tibisay
Lucena, however, also rejected two of the opposition's key
conditions before consultations began with opposition
presidential candidates and parties. The decisions that will
be made in coming weeks and the small window for improving
electoral conditions underscores the need for international
observers to engage early, if they are to have any impact.
End Summary.

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New CNE Copies Form of Old CNE
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2. (C) On May 3 the National Electoral Council (CNE) held
internal elections to determine the leadership of the
National Electoral Junta (JNE)--which oversees the technical
and administrative aspects of the election--the Civil and
Electoral Registry Committee, and the Political Party and
Finance Committee. CNE President Tibisay Lucena was elected
JNE President, and Director Sandra Oblitas became head of the
Registry Committee. As former CNE President Carrasquero's
alternate (ref a),Lucena has served on the JNE since 2000,
lessening any potential for serious change in how the
election is run. She is joined by alternate Humberto
Castillo, who also served on the previous JNE, and CNE Vice
President Janeth Hernandez. CNE Director German Yepez and
alternate Grissel Lopez will serve with Oblitas on the
Registry Committee. Lone opposition director Vicente Diaz,
who publicly lobbied to head each of those committees, was
given the less influential Political Party and Finance
Committee. Diaz' election to either the JNE or Registry
Committee would have given control of crucial electoral
aspects to someone not linked with the previous CNE or the
government, and may have helped shore up voter confidence.
Instead, all members of both committees are pro-government
members of the former CNE.

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Treatment of Opposition Demands is Uneven

CARACAS 00001287 002 OF 003


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3. (U) Some initial signals could be interpreted as
signaling that the new CNE--despite its unbalanced
composition--might be a little more flexible than its
predecessor in meeting the opposition's 10 demands. Shortly
after Lucena became CNE President she implied the CNE would
respect the agreement reached between the CNE and the
opposition in the runup to the December legislative elections
(ref a). On May 3 the CNE also announced it would accept
proposals from the major universities to audit the electoral
registry (REP) and initiate discussions with opposition
parties and potential candidates. (Note: William Ojeda and
Vicente Brito met with the CNE May 10. Julio Borges, Teodoro
Petkoff, and possible candidate Zulia Governor Manuel Rosales
held a joint meeting with the CNE May 11 followed by Cecilia
Sosa, Roberto Smith, and Sergio Omar Calderon who each held
separate meetings.) Finally, on May 9 Lucena announced the
CNE would maintain the previous CNE's "concession" to count
47 percent of the voting receipts. This could be interpreted
as a positive sign, since many of the CNE directors had
publicly disagreed with that demand. The CNE President
confirmed that the board would also continue the audits of
the voting system and software.


4. (U) During the same May 9 announcement, however, two of
the opposition's key demands were rejected. Lucena said the
CNE would use fingerprint machines on election day and
addresses would not be provided with the electoral registry
(REP) distributed to opposition parties, citing a Supreme
Court's 2003 ruling. In an apparent attempt at compromise,
Lucena said the REP will be broken down by voting center. In
addition, Oblitas' recent remarks about a possible university
audit indicates addresses may not be given to the auditors,
and that the CNE may attempt to include all universities,
even the recently established Bolivarian universities, thus
potentially delaying and seriously weakening the
effectiveness of the study.


5. (U) (Note: The opposition had demanded the removal of the
fingerprint machines because of concerns that they, along
with the voting machine memories, could be used to reveal
voter preferences and violate the secrecy of the vote (ref
b). The machines also permit a real time count of how many
and who have voted. The reliability of the REP has been
questioned since the inscription of millions of voters,
including FARC "Foreign Minister" Rodrigo Granda, in the
runup to the 2004 recall referendum. The opposition has
argued that releasing voter addresses was one of the keys to
determining the REP's accuracy. The EU and OAS observer
missions, which agreed with the opposition, have said the
constitutional and legal provisions cited by the TSJ and CNE
do not prohibit the CNE from releasing addresses.)

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Opposition Reaction
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6. (U) Opposition reaction to the board and its
announcements is varied. Accion Democratica (AD) and
National Resistance Command led by Antonio Ledezma say they

CARACAS 00001287 003 OF 003


will petition the Supreme Court to annul the new CNE alleging
that some of its members have ties to President Chavez'
party. They also have indicated they would not participate
in elections if the 10 demands were not met. (Note: The
Constitution prohibits CNE directors from being affiliated
with any political party.) Most other opposition parties and
presidential candidates continue to reserve judgment until
after their meetings to see what concessions the CNE is
willing to make. A group of businessmen, political analysts,
and former diplomats called the Group of 400 have sent a
letter to the OAS asking it to closely monitor the CNE's
implementation of OAS and EU recommendations, as well as,
opposition demands for transparent elections.

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Comment
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7. (C) The new CNE's actions suggest it will not be much
different than its predecessor. Like in the previous board,
the lone opposition voice is shut out of major
decisionmaking. The CNE has essentially set pre-conditions
on talks with the opposition by determining which demands it
would not accept, implying little hope for improving on last
year's concessions. There may be a slight possibility for
change, but time is of the essence. The university audit of
the REP is potentially good news, but only if qualified,
impartial universities are included, addresses are studied,
and it is done in time to make changes before the September 3
deadline. The CNE is necessarily stalling to delay this from
happening. The voting system audits are good only if they
begin and end in time to correct any detected deficiencies.
This small window of opportunity underscores the need for
international observers to engage early, if they are to have
any impact at all.


BROWNFIELD