NEW VENEZUELAN ELECTORAL BOARD 4 TO 1 FOR CHAVEZ

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 CARACAS 001152 SIPDIS SIPDIS USEU FOR THUIZINGA USOAS FOR JMAISTO HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER FRC FT LAUDERDALE FOR CLAMBERT COPENHAGEN FOR DLAWTON E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE SUBJECT: NEW VENEZUELAN ELECTORAL BOARD 4 TO 1 FOR CHAVEZ REF: A. CARACAS 00480 ¶B. CARACAS 00629 ¶C. CARACAS 00718 Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT R. DOWNES FOR 1.4 (D) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) On April 28, the National Assembly completed selection of and swore in Tibisay Lucena, Sandra Oblitas, Vicente Diaz, German Yepez, and Janeth Hernandez as the new directors of the National Electoral Council (CNE),as well as their 10 alternates. Not surprisingly, the all-Chavista legislature decided to maintain the CNE's four to one pro-Chavez bias. Seven of the 15 people named, including four of the five directors, were members of the previous CNE or one of its regional entities. Lucena, who was previously a CNE director, is expected to preside over the new board. The appointments fly in the face of international observer recommendations to name a new, impartial CNE. The opposition, including presidential candidate Teodoro Petkoff, is calling the election a lost opportunity to restore voter confidence. Unlike its predecessor board named by the Supreme Court (TSJ),this CNE will be permanent, with some members staying in office until 2013. Thanks to the all Chavista legislature, Chavez will have the means to assure victory not only this year, but also in 2012, pending anticipated constitutional changes to allow him to run indefinitely. End Summary. -------------- New Directors and their Alternates -------------- ¶2. (C) Below are brief bios of the new National Electoral Council (CNE) directors. The first three directors, all of whom are clearly Chavistas, were nominated by civil society and will serve until 2013. According to the Constitution, each will head one of the three principal CNE subcommittees: the National Electoral Junta (JNE),the Civil and Electoral Registry Committee, and the Political Participation and Finance Committee. --Tibisay Lucena: In 2000, the pro-Chavez director helped draft the Electoral Power Law before being named a primary alternate to former President Francisco Carrasquero in 2003. During that time she served on the JNE, the CNE's principal subcommittee. She became CNE director in 2005 when Carrasquero was appointed Supreme Court (TSJ) Justice. She became President of the new CNE during its first meeting on April 29. --Sandra Oblitas: A sociologist, Oblitas' graduate thesis was democratic stability and elections. Until her CARACAS 00001152 002 OF 004 appointment, she headed the electoral registry office for Metropolitan Caracas and was a third assistant to the JNE. Oblitas helped devise the technical criteria that allowed the CNE to disqualify over 1.3 million signature collected during the 2003 signature drive to recall the President. A review of the Maisanta list indicates she not only voted against recalling Chavez, but also signed a petition to recall opposition deputies. --Vicente Diaz: Diaz is the CNE's sole pro-opposition director. He graduated Magna Cum Laude from the Central University of Venezuela with a degree in sociology. He has since held several management jobs in a variety of national and multinational businesses, including Tupperware de Venezuela and Coca Cola. Most recently he was general manager for Kontenidos, a PR firm, and belonged to the opposition NGO Grupo de Colina. He voted against Chavez in the recall, according to the Maisanta list. Shortly after his appointment, Diaz said he favored counting the paper voting receipts. ¶3. (C) The next two directors were nominated by the national universities and Citizen Power branch, respectively, and will serve until the middle of 2009: --German Yepez: In 2003, Yepez was named primary alternate to pro-Chavez CNE director Oscar Battaglini. According to El Universal, he was also Battaglini's advisor when the latter became President of the CNE's Civil and Electoral Registry Committee. In addition to his CNE work, Yepez also headed the Institute for Hispano-American studies and as late as June 2005 had spoken at a pro-government forum on the United States' defeat in the OAS. --Janeth Hernandez: Hernandez presided over the Zulia State electoral board for the 2000 municipal and the 2004 gubernatorial elections. According to Sumate's Alejandro Plaz, she was also one of Lucena's assistants. In July 2004, she joined the editorial staff of the magazine "Political Issues." Her doctoral dissertation was on the Venezuelan electoral system. She, too, is considered pro-Chavez. Shortly after her appointment, however, she said she would like to build a bridge between the CNE and opposition parties. ¶4. (C) Three of the 10 alternates were CNE employees at the time of their appointment. According to Plaz, one of them worked for CNE legal expert Andres Brito. The alternates for Yepez are Freddy Diaz and Luis Alberto Nunez. Luis Manuel Salamanca Perez and Jose Francisco Yanez are alternates for Hernandez. Meanwhile, Grissel Lopez Quintero, Levy Arron Alter Valero, Maria Clnticia Stelling de Macareno, current CNE Secretary General William Pacheco, former CNE alternate Humberto Castillo, and ex-legislator Pedro Diaz Blum are alternates for the civil society nominees. -------------- CARACAS 00001152 003 OF 004 Opposition Disappointed -------------- ¶5. (C) The opposition is calling the decision a lost opportunity. Presidential candidate Teodoro Petkoff's camp noted the government's dismissal of international observer recommendations for an impartial CNE. Campaign manager Francisco Layrisse told poloff the new board could show good will by honoring the "concessions" made during the December 2005 legislative election, such as the withdrawal of the fingerprint machines and electronic voting laptops, and by agreeing to count all paper voting receipts. If they do not, Layrisse said the December presidential elections would be a plebiscite on Chavez's rule (implying that Petkoff will withdraw from the race). Accion Democratica Secretary General Henry Ramos Allup said the new CNE will not restore voter confidence and advocated abstention if the opposition's conditions for a transparent election are not met. Plaz told poloff the new CNE was "disastrous." He said Sumate would try to work with the CNE to test its impartiality, but he held little hope for success. Former COPEI International Relations Secretary and Venezuelan Ambassador Sadio Garavini di Turno told poloff the decision showed the government's interest in maintaining a divided opposition and the high abstention that characterized the last election. The opposition's best hope, he said, was to find a unified candidate that could rally supporters behind the opposition's 10 electoral demands (ref c),then pull out, if the CNE refused to concede to these demands. On April 30, CNE President Lucena suggested that the new CNE would respect most of the concessions made by the previous CNE. When asked, however, she would not comment on the possibility of withdrawing the fingerprint machines. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) Although the National Assembly gave the appearance of trying to name a balanced CNE by consulting with Church officials and opposition political parties, the final result was anything but. While the new CNE may make some effort to appear impartial, by giving a dominant majority to Chavismo, the BRV has sent a clear signal to the opposition and international community that it is uninterested in creating a truly fair electoral playing field. We cannot be certain that the Chavistas will be as unbalanced and patently unfair as past president Jorge Rodriguez was. But certainly the groundwork is laid for that scenarios. The opposition will continue to push its conditions for a transparent election with the new CNE, but it will likely be difficult to convince supporters to participate in such a skewed electoral system. By rejecting international electoral observers' recommendations, the BRV may have avoided any future observation missions. EU representatives had already told us that some EU members were reluctant send observers for the CARACAS 00001152 004 OF 004 December 3 presidential elections because they doubted the government's willingness to improve the electoral system. The composition of the new CNE reinforces that skepticism and may discourage other credible organizations from mounting a mission. BROWNFIELD