QUESTIONABLE POLL CLAIMS STRONG PUBLIC OPPOSITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CANBERRA 001586

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2016
TAGS: MARR PGOV PREL SCUL AS
SUBJECT: QUESTIONABLE POLL CLAIMS STRONG PUBLIC OPPOSITION
TO IRAQ, MIXED VIEWS ON AMERICAN RELATIONSHIP

REF: CANBERRA 1444

Classified By: Charge Michael P. Owens, REASONS 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C/NF) SUMMARY: A poll of Australian citizens released by
the Lowy Institute in Sydney October 2 found that 84 percent
of respondents did not believe the war in Iraq would reduce
the threat of terrorism. Two-thirds of those surveyed
thought the war would not lead to the spread of democracy in
the Middle East and 85 percent agreed that the Iraq
experience should make Australia cautious about using
military force to deal with rogue regimes. The opposition
Labor Party (ALP) immediately seized on the results to attack
the Government's Iraq policy. The Lowy poll also reported
that while more than two-thirds thought that Australia's
alliance with the U.S. was very important or fairly
important, 69 percent of those polled thought the United
States had too much influence on Australian foreign policy
and 79 percent believed the U.S. was playing the role of
world policeman more than it should. This is Lowy's second
annual poll and like the first, its results show a more
anti-U.S. bias than most other Australian opinion surveys.
Several professional pollsters we have spoken with here noted
that the poll did not take a systematic approach to
collecting the views of those surveyed, and appeared designed
through the structuring of the questions to advance a
particular agenda. END SUMMARY


2. (U) On October 2, the Lowy Institute for International
Policy in Sydney released its second annual poll of public
opinion and foreign policy. Press and Opposition leaders
seized on the poll results regarding Iraq to criticize the
Government's support for the War. The press highlighted that
84 percent of respondents disagreed with the statement that
the threat of terrorism had been reduced by Iraq. Two-thirds
believed the Iraq War would not spread democracy throughout
the Middle East and 85 percent thought the experience should
make Australians more cautious about using military force to
deal with rogue regimes. While the poll reported that more
than two-thirds of Australians thought that the alliance with
the United States was either very important or fairly
important, two-thirds also believed Australia took too much
notice of the U.S. in foreign policy. Seventy-nine percent
"agreed" to the question "please say if you agree or disagree
with the following statement: the United States is playing
the role of world policeman more than it should." More
people trusted Japan, India and China to act responsibly in
the world than the U.S., according to the poll. Somewhat
bizarrely, however, more respondents wanted greater influence
for the United States in the world than wanted greater
influence for Japan, China, or India.


3. (U) Opposition Shadow Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd seized
on the results to claim that the Government's strategy in
Iraq was not working and that Prime Minister Howard and
Foreign Minister Downer "just followed the American lead on
Iraq rather than doing the responsible thing for Australia
and the world." Sydney Institute Director Alan Gyngell added
that there was a "very interesting difference" in how
Australians see the alliance: "its a mixture of admiration
and resentment...There's a very strong view that the U.S. has
too much influence on our foreign policy."


4. (C/NF) COMMENT: While Gyngell told the Charge that the
poll's questions were produced by the Chicago Council of
Global Affairs (that was conducting parallel studies in
collaboration with Lowy),Australian National University
Professor Ian McAllister said poll results depend on the way
questions are worded and how they are sequenced. Australians
in general are not very conversant on foreign policy and
defense issues, he continued, so these questions would have
put a lot of pressure on the respondents. Mark Textor, the
Government's chief pollster, dismissed the poll saying that
it did not take a systematic approach to collecting the views
of those surveyed. He noted that the Lowy Institute is run by
former ALP Prime Minister Paul Keating's staffers and
depicted the poll as an exercise in agenda setting where the
pollsters created the questions to fit the agenda.


5. (C/NF) While the poll questions may appear agenda-driven,
even the political director of PM Howard's Liberal Party has
admitted that Iraq is not popular in Australia (see reftel).
However, individual politicians we talk to do not mention

CANBERRA 00001586 002 OF 002


Iraq as an issue their voters care overwhelmingly about. One
commentator pointed out that the Lowy poll numbers show that
while there might be support for an Australian withdrawal
from Iraq, the alliance with the U.S. remains highly valued.
OWENS