QUESTIONABLE POLL CLAIMS STRONG PUBLIC OPPOSITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CANBERRA 001586 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2016 TAGS: MARR PGOV PREL SCUL AS SUBJECT: QUESTIONABLE POLL CLAIMS STRONG PUBLIC OPPOSITION TO IRAQ, MIXED VIEWS ON AMERICAN RELATIONSHIP REF: CANBERRA 1444 Classified By: Charge Michael P. Owens, REASONS 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C/NF) SUMMARY: A poll of Australian citizens released by the Lowy Institute in Sydney October 2 found that 84 percent of respondents did not believe the war in Iraq would reduce the threat of terrorism. Two-thirds of those surveyed thought the war would not lead to the spread of democracy in the Middle East and 85 percent agreed that the Iraq experience should make Australia cautious about using military force to deal with rogue regimes. The opposition Labor Party (ALP) immediately seized on the results to attack the Government's Iraq policy. The Lowy poll also reported that while more than two-thirds thought that Australia's alliance with the U.S. was very important or fairly important, 69 percent of those polled thought the United States had too much influence on Australian foreign policy and 79 percent believed the U.S. was playing the role of world policeman more than it should. This is Lowy's second annual poll and like the first, its results show a more anti-U.S. bias than most other Australian opinion surveys. Several professional pollsters we have spoken with here noted that the poll did not take a systematic approach to collecting the views of those surveyed, and appeared designed through the structuring of the questions to advance a particular agenda. END SUMMARY ¶2. (U) On October 2, the Lowy Institute for International Policy in Sydney released its second annual poll of public opinion and foreign policy. Press and Opposition leaders seized on the poll results regarding Iraq to criticize the Government's support for the War. The press highlighted that 84 percent of respondents disagreed with the statement that the threat of terrorism had been reduced by Iraq. Two-thirds believed the Iraq War would not spread democracy throughout the Middle East and 85 percent thought the experience should make Australians more cautious about using military force to deal with rogue regimes. While the poll reported that more than two-thirds of Australians thought that the alliance with the United States was either very important or fairly important, two-thirds also believed Australia took too much notice of the U.S. in foreign policy. Seventy-nine percent "agreed" to the question "please say if you agree or disagree with the following statement: the United States is playing the role of world policeman more than it should." More people trusted Japan, India and China to act responsibly in the world than the U.S., according to the poll. Somewhat bizarrely, however, more respondents wanted greater influence for the United States in the world than wanted greater influence for Japan, China, or India. ¶3. (U) Opposition Shadow Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd seized on the results to claim that the Government's strategy in Iraq was not working and that Prime Minister Howard and Foreign Minister Downer "just followed the American lead on Iraq rather than doing the responsible thing for Australia and the world." Sydney Institute Director Alan Gyngell added that there was a "very interesting difference" in how Australians see the alliance: "its a mixture of admiration and resentment...There's a very strong view that the U.S. has too much influence on our foreign policy." ¶4. (C/NF) COMMENT: While Gyngell told the Charge that the poll's questions were produced by the Chicago Council of Global Affairs (that was conducting parallel studies in collaboration with Lowy),Australian National University Professor Ian McAllister said poll results depend on the way questions are worded and how they are sequenced. Australians in general are not very conversant on foreign policy and defense issues, he continued, so these questions would have put a lot of pressure on the respondents. Mark Textor, the Government's chief pollster, dismissed the poll saying that it did not take a systematic approach to collecting the views of those surveyed. He noted that the Lowy Institute is run by former ALP Prime Minister Paul Keating's staffers and depicted the poll as an exercise in agenda setting where the pollsters created the questions to fit the agenda. ¶5. (C/NF) While the poll questions may appear agenda-driven, even the political director of PM Howard's Liberal Party has admitted that Iraq is not popular in Australia (see reftel). However, individual politicians we talk to do not mention CANBERRA 00001586 002 OF 002 Iraq as an issue their voters care overwhelmingly about. One commentator pointed out that the Lowy poll numbers show that while there might be support for an Australian withdrawal from Iraq, the alliance with the U.S. remains highly valued. OWENS