NO PROGRESS DURING LATEST ROUND OF TALKS ON NAGALAND

UNCLAS CALCUTTA 000516

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

PACOM FOR POL/AD

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER IN BM
SUBJECT: NO PROGRESS DURING LATEST ROUND OF TALKS ON NAGALAND



1. (U) Summary. October 17-19 in Amsterdam, another round of
talks between the Northeast Indian insurgent group National
Socialist Council of Nagalim - Isak Muivah (NSCN-IM) and the GOI
ended without progress. The Indian delegation met the rebel
leadership to discuss "substantive issues" as a follow-up to a
list of demands the NSCN-IM presented in July 2006. The
NSCN-IM's key demand for unification of Naga-inhabited areas
into a "Greater Nagaland" -- which would include 1.2 million
Nagas living in the states of Assam, Manipur and Arunachal
Pradesh as well -- has been opposed by the GOI. Other NSCN-IM
demands included unification of all Naga-inhabited areas in
Northeast India, separate representation at the United Nations,
and greater control over local natural resources, finance,
defense and police. GOI and the NSCN-IM have held more than 50
rounds of peace talks since their 1997 ceasefire agreement,
which expires in July 2007. A resolution to one of India's
oldest internal conflicts remains unlikely. End Summary.



2. (U) From October 17-19 a GOI delegation, including Union
Ministers Oscar Fernandes, S. Raghupathy, P. Chavan and chief
interlocutor K. Padmanabhaiah, met with NSCN-IM leaders in
Amsterdam. Earlier this year, at the July talks in Bangkok
(when the ceasefire between GOI and NSCN-IM was extended for one
year),both sides had discussed the limits of flexibility within
the Indian constitution and whether a "sub-national
constitution" was possible. The NSCN-IM at that time proposed
negotiating a federal relationship with India, through a
mutually agreed settlement and a separate "Naga Constitution."
The GOI held that the Indian constitution is flexible enough to
accommodate regional diversities, similar to the way in which it
incorporates a constitution for Jammu and Kashmir.


3. (U) However, the parties remained at an impasse. Speaking
for the NCSN-IM's 'shadow government,' Deputy "Kilonser"
(minister) for the "Kilo" (Home) Ministry V. Horam told the
press that the Nagas proposed a "Federation of India and
Nagalim" on the basis of a special relationship between the two
parties. This would mean having two separate constitutions.
The NSCN-IM is unwilling to accept a solution within the
parameters of the Indian constitution. However, NSCN-IM
spokesman K. Chawang said that in the Amsterdam talks, the GOI
failed to express a clear stand on the NSCM-IM's demand for a
special federal arrangement that allows self-governance to
Nagas. Chawang felt that this could jeopardize future peace
initiatives. General Secretary of the Naga Hoho (an apex body
representing all Naga tribes) N. Krome told post that the
NSCN-IM rejected the GOI's proposal for a solution within the
Indian constitution and that the Amsterdam talks were
inconclusive.


4. (SBU) Complicating discussion with the Nagas is persistent
internecine conflict between the NSCN-IM and its main rival,
NSCN-Khaplang. The GOI also has a ceasefire with NSCN-Khaplang
but has not engaged in discussions with that faction. On
October 26, soon after the Amsterdam talks, fierce clashes
between the two NSCN factions broke out in the Zunheboto
district of Nagaland, reportedly resulting in three deaths.
Some residents of the area had to vacate their homes to escape
the violence. The fighting was a clear violation of ceasefire
rules that forbid NSCN members to carry arms outside their
designated camps. Observers have alleged that the Khaplang
faction is tacitly backed by the Congress Party, whereas the
NSCN-IM is supported by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its
allies in the current Nagaland government.


5. (SBU) Comment: A resolution of the ongoing conflict is
unlikely because the NSCN-IM appears unwilling to give ground on
its demand for a separate and independent Nagaland. There is no
real incentive for either the GOI or the Nagas to seek a
substantive accord - the Naga leadership is content to enjoy the
benefits of rebel political leadership (foreign travel, titular
prestige) and the GOI appears unwilling to expend the resources
to take on the Nagas head-on through military operations. Like
India's other internal conflicts, the GOI seems to prefer
letting insurgency drag on indefinitely instead of looking for a
final resolution.
JARDINE