EGYPTIAN STUDENTS FRET OVER MB INFLUENCE, FUTURE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 000721 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV SCUL ELAB KDEM EG SUBJECT: EGYPTIAN STUDENTS FRET OVER MB INFLUENCE, FUTURE PROSPECTS Sensitive but Unclassified. Please Protect Accordingly. ¶1. (SBU) Summary: In a recent encounter, secular Egyptian university students expressed worry over the growing influence of Islamists on and off campus and blamed GOE-imposed restrictions on student life for fueling support for the MB. The students discussed their on-campus efforts to counter widespread Islamist influence. While they welcomed U.S. support for political reform, they cautioned these efforts should not cross the line into "interference," which they would oppose. All viewed with trepidation the increasingly difficult economic circumstances facing the country, including the lack of work opportunities at home and abroad. End Summary. -------------- - Restrictions on Student Life Counterproductive -------------- - ¶2. (SBU) On January 29, Emboffs invited a group of university students to coffee at the American Center in Alexandria, to share their thoughts and concerns about Egypt's present and future. Each of the students was active in student politics and affiliated with either the ruling NDP or the opposition Wafd party. Chief among their concerns was the rising influence of Islamists on campus. However, they slammed the GOE's heavy-handed efforts to contain Islamism on campus as worse than futile - and indeed counterproductive. Several participants pointed out that regulations prohibiting student unions from partisan activities have led the MB to organize "underground" and off campus, outside the official system. At the same time, recognized student organizations must seek the approval of highly conservative State Security officers and University administrators for even the most mundane of activities, such as organizing school trips, arts programs or activity days. The MB, they said, meanwhile directs a "shadow" and highly active student union which has gained in popularity among a student body starved for activity and stimulation. ¶3. (SBU) As a result of last fall's parliamentary gains for the MB, both Wafdist and NDP members of the group cited halting further MB inroads as a key part of their outreach to fellow students. Both parties produce campus newsletters, flyers, and leaflets, aimed at countering MB influence. However, a volatile political climate in the past several years has enabled MB student groups to define the campus 
political agenda, often through the posting of anti-Israel or anti-US posters and leaflets among students. In the long run, the students believe that real support for the MB is thin. Participants view support for the MB in recent elections as a protest vote rather than a viable vehicle for reform. As one Wafdist opined, the MB's inability to tackle reform would become apparent if opponents forced them to propose real solutions to problems rather than relying on the mantra, "Islam is the solution." -------------- -------------- U.S. Should "Support Reform - but Don't interfere!" -------------- -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The student activists became animated when discussing American policy toward Egypt and the region, and their statements reflected a common theme: the U.S. should support reforms but avoid interference, which they viewed as counterproductive. One NDP activist chided the USG for reportedly tying progress on a Free Trade Agreement to the release of presidential candidate Ayman Nour. The Wafdists took a more populist stance in their criticisms. One, a recent participant in the USG,s International Visitor Leadership Program, characterized American Middle East policy as destabilizing and of benefit only to extremists such as Hamas, the MB, and Iran. Another Wafdist took aim at QIZs by alleging that they undercut the Egyptian textile industry while aiding "established Egyptian traders" and American companies, especially "Jewish ones with business ties in Israel." (Note: Despite the criticism, the meeting was friendly and held on the premises of the American Alexandria. The students were pleased to engage Emboffs, and expressed no reservations about coming to the APP.) -------------- Few Links To A World That Is Passing Them By -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Like the vast majority of Egyptian students, most participants lacked significant travel outside of Egypt. Two of the six had never been abroad, while two others had travel experience limited to the Gulf many years ago. With the exception of one previous IV participant, most of their prior interaction with foreigners came from contact at tourist centers such as Luxor and Sharm el-Sheikh. All expressed frustration at the difficulty in obtaining visas to other countries - particularly those in the Gulf, a region which once served as a major outlet for excess Egyptian labor. Several cited the increasing emphasis on education and specialized skills among Gulf companies as a contributing factor to the drop in Egyptian expatriate workers. A sense of apprehension among the students was clear about Egypt's need to produce a more educated and employable workforce lest it be left behind by other countries in the region. This last point was obvious when one student referred to the UAE as "the same as Europe" (though he had never traveled to Europe). -------------- The Road Ahead -------------- ¶6. (SBU) All participants expressed general anxiety about Egypt's future but avoided making sweeping generalizations about domestic developments over the next five years. Most predicted that President Mubarak would continue in office for the remainder of his term and several expressed the hope that he would pursue economic and political reforms, perhaps with the assistance of his son Gamal. Another student predicted that GOE intolerance of the MB would lead to a dissolution of parliament, an option Mubarak exercised in the 1980's. (Comment: We believe Mubarak would be loathe to dissolve parliament, given the current context of strong internal and external pressures on the GOE to democratize. End comment.) RICCIARDONE