SOMALIA: ARAB LEAGUE PRESSING FOR RESUMPTION OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 007199 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS MARR ARABL EG SO SUBJECT: SOMALIA: ARAB LEAGUE PRESSING FOR RESUMPTION OF DIPLOMATIC TALKS, AVOIDANCE OF ARMED CONFLICT REF: STATE 200637 Classified by Minister Counselor for Economic and Political Affairs William Stewart for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Poloff discussed reftel demarche with Arab League Secretariat African Affairs Office Director Samir Hosny on SIPDIS December 20, urging the League to use its contacts with Somali Islamic Courts (CIC) and Transitional Federal Government (TFG) figures to help avoid military clashes, to restrain extremist rhetoric, and to resume direct negotiations. Hosni said he was in daily contact with senior members of both parties (including CIC leader Aweys),and that the League's message was consistent with the U.S. demarche. Admitting the situation was precarious, Hosny claimed credit on behalf of the League for having received assurances from both sides not to launch armed attacks against the other. ¶2. (C) Regarding resumption of Arab League-sponsored talks, Hosny said the CIC agreed to return to the table without preconditions, but the TFG was stalling. And, no date for resumption of talks has been agreed. As for a venue, the League - working with IGAD Chair Kenya - was flexible on location, if agreed to by both sides. The CIC, he said, preferred Yemen, Sudan, or Cairo, while the TFG preferred Kenya (a supposed non-starter for the Courts). Egypt, Hosny said, would host the talks if it felt meaningful progress could be achieved. One of Egypt's main concerns with this crisis, he volunteered, was maintaining good relations with Ethiopia. Egypt was not prepared to provide peace-keeping troops at this stage (requested by Kenya's Foreign Minister), he added, unless agreed by both sides. ¶3. (C) The League is pressing the CIC to understand that UNSCR 1725 is "not aimed at them," Hosny stated, but rather designed to protect the transitional government. Since the Courts already declared that they had no intention to attack Baidoa or the TFG, there is no reason for them to object to the UN resolution. Hosny said that Arab League Secretariat staff member Zeid Al Sabban is currently in Nairobi to follow the situation, and to liaise with the International Contact Group and others involved in Somali affairs. If Arab League-hosted talks resume, he said, the main focus of talks would be interim security arrangements and power sharing. Hosny encouraged Washington and others to pressure the TFG to return to the negotiating table without conditions. ¶4. (C) MFA Somalia Desk officer Mohamed Orabi told poloff on November 20 that Egypt is adopting a "wait-and-see" approach to a possible CIC attack against Ethiopian forces. He suggested that recent actions and statements by the Courts indicated a slight retreat from their original threats to attack Ethiopian forces. (Comment: Orabi may not be privy to all GOE engagement on Somalia, as Egyptian Intelligence - not the MFA - has been the primary conduit for engagement with the Courts. End comment). JONES