OCTOBER - NOVEMBER ECONOMIC REPORT

UNCLAS CAIRO 007133 SIPDIS STATE FOR NEA/ELA, NEA/RA, AND EB/IDF USAID FOR ANE/MEA MCCLOUD USTR FOR SAUMS TREASURY FOR NUGENT/HIRSON COMMERCE FOR 4520/ITA/ANESA/TALAAT SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EFIN ETRD EINV ENRG EWWT EG SUBJECT: OCTOBER - NOVEMBER ECONOMIC REPORT -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. IN THIS EDITION: MACROECONOMIC: ¶2. INFLATION: Highest rate in two years ¶3. MONETARY POLICY: Interest rate increase ¶4. FDI: $7.5-8b by year-end? ¶5. FDI: One-stop Shops ¶6. CAPITAL MARKETS: Enhanced regulatory regime ¶7. UNEMPLOYMENT: Survey shows unemployment down ¶8. MORTGAGE FINANCE: Financing reaches $113 million ¶9. PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP: GOE investment plans LEGISLATION: ¶10. PENSIONS: New pension law being drafted ¶11. TENDERS AND AUCTIONS: Rules reforms implemented TRADE: ¶12. U.S.-EGYPT: Exports to U.S. double ¶13. CHINA-EGYPT: Nine new trade agreements SECTORS: ¶14. INDUSTRY: GOE establishes new industrial zones ¶15. AGRICULTURE: Exports reach $1.2 billion ¶16. ELECTRICITY: Price increases and cutoffs ¶17. OIL/GAS: New agreements with Russia and Canada ¶18. PHARMACEUTICALS: U.S. firms purchase Amoun ¶19. TELECOMS: New intercontinental cable ¶20. TELECOMS: Lucent Technologies to help schools ¶21. TELECOMS: Orascom subscribers reach 46 million ¶22. TELECOMS: Telecom Egypt launches IPTV service ¶23. TRANSPORT: Suez Canal transit has record day ¶24. HEALTH: Cholera outbreak ¶25. PETROCHEMICALS: New petrochemical plant in Port Said ¶26. RETAIL: Metro to invest 300m euros in Egypt ¶27. ECONOMIC INDICATORS -------------- MACROECONOMIC -------------- ¶2. INFLATION: Inflation rose to 11.8% in October, the highest rate in two years, despite easing of global oil and non-oil commodity prices. The Consumer Price Index, which measured 4.4% in April, has more than doubled in the past six months. Although prices rose in most sectors in October, cement and steel prices actually declined. To keep construction costs down, the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) placed a voluntary cap of LE 295 ($52) per ton on cement prices last August. In early November, MTI announced that most producers had complied with the cap, and prices had dropped 15%, to LE 340 ($60) per ton, compared to LE 380 ($67) per ton in July. Steel rebar prices also declined 10% in October, to LE 2980-3500 ($523-614) per ton. Industry sources attribute the decline to lower global prices for inputs such as iron, copper and aluminum, as well as lower demand during Ramadan. ¶3. MONETARY POLICY: In response to rising prices, the Central Bank raised its overnight deposit and lending rates in November to 8.5% and 10.5% respectively, both up 0.5%. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) released a statement on November 2 indicating the decision to raise rates was based on inflationary pressure brought on by accelerated growth, particularly in the construction and manufacturing sectors. The MPC indicated future rate decisions will consider the outlook for inflation and growth. Most observers believe the MPC will raise rates again in December. ¶4. FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI): UNCTAD's World Investment Report 2006 indicated FDI flows to Egypt in 2005 stood at $5.376 billion, placing Egypt second after South Africa in terms of FDI flow to Africa. The non-energy sector made up 70% of FDI in FY05/06, compared with 33% and 20% in the two previous fiscal years. The steady rise in FDI has boosted foreign reserves to $24.9 billion, contributing to the Egyptian pound's stability. Commenting on the report, Minister of Investment Mohieldin predicted FDI would climb to $7.5-8 billion by June 2007. Speaking at the Egypt Invest conference in November, Chairman of the General Authority for Investment and Free Zones (GAFI) Zaid Bahaa El Din admitted that despite increased FDI, investors still face problems in Egypt, especially obtaining business licenses. The licensing regime in the Suez Industrial Zone, however, works well and Bahaa El Din hoped it could serve as a model. GAFI's One-stop Shop is also working to reduce waiting time for tax registration cards. Bahaa El Din noted Egypt still has no bankruptcy law, but "exit" rules are improving and GAFI is also addressing investor concerns such as financing and dispute settlement. ¶5. On a related note, MTI will soon open commercial registry branches in local chambers of commerce, as part of an overall trade modernization plan. The Federation of Egyptian Chambers of Commerce said the registries will be part of One-stop Shops planned for each of its branches, to facilitate commercial licensing for small investors and small and medium enterprises (SMEs). The One-stop Shops will host representatives from various GOE agencies, including the Ministry of Finance, Customs and the Social Insurance Agency. The shops are expected to open in the coming year. ¶6. CAPITAL MARKETS: The Chairman of Egypt's Capital Market Authority (CMA) announced implementation of enhanced regulations on the Cairo and Alexandria Stock Exchange (CASE),aimed at reducing investment risk. The regulations include new solvency requirements for listed companies and new membership and transparency rules for brokerage firms. The CMA hopes the new regulations will attract more corporate investors to balance the large number of individual traders and stabilize the market. The number of individuals investing on the CASE increased from 300,000 to 1.7 million in the last 10 months. Individual traders accounted for 90% of trading during the bear market from March to July 2006. ¶7. UNEMPLOYMENT: The Economic Research Forum, in cooperation with the Population Council and the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics, released the annual USAID-funded Egypt Labor Market Survey for 2006 in October. The survey covered 8,349 households and showed economic reform has reduced unemployment from 11.7% to 7.8% in 2006, with the biggest impact in rural areas. The survey also found that although real wages have increased, earnings inequality has widened. New labor market entrants are increasingly relying on informal jobs. Males are transitioning from school to work 1-2 years earlier than in previous years, with no change for females. A population bulge of youth under 25 is now entering the labor market, just as Egypt's economy is beginning to grow again. The new generation of workers is expected to increase the number of breadwinners per capita, despite continuing barriers to entry of young women into the labor market. ¶8. MORTGAGE FINANCE: Mortgage Finance Authority Chairman Osama Saleh announced that total mortgage lending had reached LE 650 million ($113 million) in September. The figure is up from LE 514 million ($89 million) in June 2006 and LE 15.8 million ($2.74 million) in June 2005. Saleh expects total lending to reach LE 1 billion ($173 million) by the end 2006. In an effort to increase mortgage activity, Minister of Investment Mohieldin announced plans to restrict lending activities by real estate developers, a common practice, in order to allow banks to play a more active role in the housing market. The GOE's goal was to increase lending to 5% of GDP or LE 20 billion to LE 30 billion ($3.5 billion-$5.2 billion) by the end of 2007. ¶9. PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS (PPP): The GOE is planning to use PPPs to increase investment in sectors such as energy, water and sewerage, health, transport, and education, according to Minister of Investment Mohieldin. Speaking at the Euro-Med Conference in Marseille in November, Mohieldin said he envisaged $1 billion per year for investment in the HEALTH sector alone, with $600 million/year for electricity, $200 million/year for education and $2 billion over three years for transport. He estimates long-term financing needs of $25 billion for wastewater treatment over the next several years. Mohieldin recognized the image of PPPs in Egypt is adversely affected by foreign currency problems associated with a series of build-own-operate-transfer (BOOT) projects carried out in the mid-1990s. New regulations are under preparation, however, to prevent a recurrence. The GOE will likely frame the regulations sector-by-sector, according to Mohieldin. -------------- LEGISLATION -------------- ¶10. PENSIONS: Minister of Finance Boutros Ghali announced in late October that a new draft pension law is under review. The bill will maintain the current pension system, but create a parallel scheme for new subscribers, including temporary workers, who will pay 17% of their monthly salaries into the system. Of the 17%, 12% will go into non-tradable treasury bonds, and 5% into financial assets. Citizens over 65 will receive relatively lower pensions through the Social Solidarity Scheme. The bill will create a pension commission with representatives from the Ministries of Finance, Investment, Social Solidarity, Manpower and Emigration, as well as the CMA and the Egyptian Insurance Supervisory Authority. The commission will supervise regulations and performance of pension authorities. The new system is designed to ensure adequate pensions based on stable financial sources with sound management and efficient and transparent investment of funds. ¶11. TENDERS AND AUCTIONS: In October, regulations implementing the Tenders and Bids Law were amended to streamline contract procedures. The changes shorten the period required for announcing tenders and evaluating bids, lower charges for tender documents, oblige clients to hold pre-bid meetings to clarify items in tenders, and include model contract terms clearly setting out rights and obligations of contractors. The amendments allow small- and medium-sized enterprises to acquire tender documents at cost, in order to help such firms to win business. -------------- TRADE -------------- ¶12. U.S.-EGYPT: Egyptian exports to the U.S. more than doubled in the first half of 2006. Minister of Trade and Industry Rachid announced exports to the U.S. soared to $1.5 billion between January and June 2006, compared to $925 million during the same period last year, a 56% increase. Egyptian imports from the U.S. have increased by 28% during the first six months of the current year to reach $1.8 billion, compared to $1.4 billion during the same period last year. A study prepared by Egypt's International Trade Point found that the Qualifying Industrial Zones (QIZ) agreement was the main factor in boosting Egyptian textile exports to the U.S. market. January-June 2006 QIZ exports increased to $347.9 million, 24.1% of Egypt's total exports and 41.8% of Egypt's total non-petroleum exports. ¶13. CHINA-EGYPT: Egypt signed nine bilateral trade agreements with China at the China-Africa Summit in November. The agreements are designed to promote Chinese investment in Egypt and correct Egypt's balance of payment deficit with China. At the conference, President Mubarak and Minister of Trade and Industry Rachid stressed the importance of cooperation and encouraged the Chinese government to promote investment in Egypt by providing incentives to Chinese investors. The two sides agreed to develop and increase Egyptian exports, with China offering to train and develop Egyptian human resource in marketing and exporting and to conduct studies in Egypt to help increase exports. A delegation of Egyptian businessmen also attended the summit, and contracts were signed for new electric cable, textiles and electrical appliance factories in Egypt and for the exchange of technical knowledge on SMEs. An agreement on cooperation in science and technology was also signed. The first project under the agreement will be a fish-farming laboratory at Suez Canal University in Ismailia. -------------- SECTORS -------------- ¶14. INDUSTRY: The GOE has set up an agency to develop a series of industrial zones characterized by "business-friendly" regulations. Prospective investors are invited to submit prequalification applications for projects in sample zone sites in four existing industrial cities - 6 of October, 10 of Ramadan, Borg al-Arab and Sadat. The new agency, the Industrial Development Authority, will operate under the umbrella of the MTI. Private companies will develop, finance, promote, lease or sell, manage, operate and maintain the industrial zones under contractual agreements. The areas will be eligible for QIZ designation. ¶15. AGRICULTURE: In October, the Ministry of Agriculture announced Egypt's agricultural exports reached LE 7 billion ($1.2 billion) in 2005, and predicted they would grow 15% in 2006. Potato exports in 2005 were 394,000 metric tons (mt),and citrus exports, 700,000 mt. Citrus exports are expected to grow significantly as a result of recently-signed agreements with Australia and China. The ministry plans to spend LE 160 million ($28 million) to combat fruit flies, a chronic problem for Egypt's agricultural sector. ¶16. ELECTRICITY: In October, electrical distribution companies raised prices 4.9 to 8.1%, depending on consumption, the third increase since 2004. However, electricity subsidies are still about LE 3 billion ($526 million)/year. Electrical Holding Company President Mohammed Awad announced Egypt needs LE 6 billion ($1.1 billion) in additional revenues to meet an average 10.3% annual increase in demand. Finally, for the first time in living memory, Minister of Electricity Hassan Younis received permission from Prime Minister Nazif to cut off electricity to government buildings that had not paid their bills. In October, electricity to several Cairo governorate buildings was cut off. In addition, warning notices were sent to the Ministries of Interior (LE 3.85 million, or $675,000 behind) and Higher Education (LE 500,000, or $87,000),as well as Cairo University (LE 6 million, or $1.1 million). The move received considerable press coverage, and water utilities are expected to follow the lead of the electricity sector. ¶17. OIL/GAS: Minister of Trade and Industry Rachid signed an MOU with Gazprom for cooperation in Egypt's natural gas sector in October in Moscow. The MOU covers exploration, sharing technology and marketing. In late November, the Egyptian Mineral Resources Authority and the Canadian consortium Centurion Energy International signed an agreement to study possible reserves of oil shale in Egypt and exploitation and marketing feasibility. According to Minister of Petroleum Fahmi, Egypt's estimated oil shale reserves are equivalent to 5.7 billion barrels of oil. Centurion Energy International Inc. was recently acquired by Dana Gas, a UAE-based energy company. The consortium also has facilities in Tunisia and Nigeria. ¶18. PHARMACEUTICALS: Two U.S. firms, Citigroup Venture Capital International and Capital International Private Equity Fund IV, together with Concord International Investments, bought 93% of Egypt's Amoun Pharmaceuticals for LE 2.623 billion ($458 million). The firms bought the majority stake from Amoun Chairman Sarwat Bassily and his family, company officials said. Bassily, who founded the company in 1998, will stay on to manage it. The company produces international products under license and exports to countries in sub-Saharan Africa, central Asia, and throughout the Middle East. ¶19. TELECOMS: In late October, India's Videsh Sanchar Nigam Ltd (VSNL) signed an MOU with several telecom service providers, including Etisalat, Saudi Telecom Company, Telecom Egypt and Telecom Italia Sparkle, for the construction of a new submarine cable system linking India with Europe, Africa, Asia and the Middle East. VSNL says the India-Middle East-Western Europe cable system will be ready by mid-2008; construction contracts will be awarded by year-end. The cable will use Dense Wavelength Division Multiplexing technology, with a proposed capacity of at least 2.56 terabits per-second. ¶20. Also in late October, Minister of Communications and Information Technology Kamel and Minister of Education El Gamal announced a contract with Lucent Technologies and its business partner TeleTech to provide high speed internet access and data delivery to public schools, under the Egyptian Educational Initiative. Lucent will work with TeleTech to deliver a next-generation CDMA2000 1xEV-DO (Evolution-Data Optimized) and WiFi trial network to complement Telecom Egypt's CDMA2000 1X network in the El Max area. The trial network will provide wireless data services such as broadband Internet access, e-mail and distance learning at very high speeds for students and educators. ¶21. In mid-November, Orascom Telecom (OT) announced its mobile subscriber base is over 46 million. Revenues during the third quarter of 2006 rose 35% to $3.216 billion. Egyptian subsidiary MobiNil made up 12% of the company's revenues. OT has mobile operators in Algeria, Pakistan, Egypt, Iraq, Tunisia, Bangladesh, Africa and the Republic of the Congo and recently acquired an additional 8% stake in its Algerian subsidiary for $399 million, raising its stake in Algeria to 95.6%. ¶22. In late November, Telecom Egypt (TE) launched Egypt's first IPTV dedicated service, joining recent entrants in the market such as Germany's Deutsche Telekom, Telecom Italia and Swisscom's Bluewin TV service. TEData, TE's internet subsidiary, began on-demand content to both TEData's existing customers and new ADSL subscribers in November. The service is called TE-VU. ¶23. TRANSPORT: On October 26, a record 76 vessels transited the Suez Canal, earning a one-day record $13 million in tolls for the Suez Canal Authority (SCA). In September SCA's revenues were $332.2 million, 10% over September 2005, despite the sinking of an Egyptian dredger that halted traffic for several hours. The GOE hopes to increase inland maritime traffic as well. Press reports indicate the Ministry of Transport will offer four river ports, and a total of 180,000 square meters of land for development under build-operate-transfer terms. The ports include the Tebin Port, located south of Cairo, and Qena Port in Upper Egypt. ¶24. HEALTH: In early October the press reported several cholera cases in the western Delta govenorate of Daqahliyya, and said victims were being treated in the Mansoura Viral Hospital. Also in October, there were fifty poisoning cases in the western Delta governorate of Sharquiyya, resulting in two deaths. The press blamed those cases on contaminated water. In both cases, the Ministry of HEALTH denied that the illness was cholera; the governors of the two affected governorates also said the problem was not contaminated water but food poisoning. ¶25. PETROCHEMICALS: In mid November, Oriental Weavers signed an agreement with the German company ODA for construction of a new plant to produce propylene in Port Said. Total investment is $680 million. Sixty-five percent of production will be exported, beginning in 2009. Oriental Weavers Chairman Mohamed Khamis indicated the project will use locally-produced propane gas. Other investors include Yemen's Haiel Said Group, UAE's Amwal El Khalig Company, and the Arabic Company for Libyan Investments. ¶26. RETAIL: The International Metro Cash & Carry supermarket chain is expected to invest an estimated 300 million euros in Egypt in a food and farm products marketing chain, according to the Ministry of Investment, which hosted a delegation of Metro representatives in October. Metro Cash & Carry is the largest division of German retail giant Metro, with total 2005 sales of 28 billion euros. -------------- ECONOMIC INDICATORS -------------- ¶27. Exchange Rate: (09/28/06) (11/30/06) Egyptian Pounds/$ Buying Selling Buying Selling Avg. Bank/Bureau Rate 573.17 575.00 571.23 573.37 Capital Market: (09/28/06) (11/30/06) CASE 30 Index 6,427(09/27) 6,561 Hermes Financial Index 57,059 57,974 EFG Index 29,014 29,170 Interest Rates: (percent, monthly comparison) Interbank Overnight 8.9(09/27) 9.6 T-bills (182 days) 9.55 9.86 T-Bond (maturing 12/08) no trade 10.81 (11/27) T-Bond (maturing 10/11) 10.3(09/27) 10.88 Foreign Reserves: (US $ billion, official gov't figures) (09/2006) (11/2006) 24,064.9 24,900.8 Inflation (08/2006) (10/2006) Consumer Price Index (CPI) 8.9 11.8 RICCIARDONE