(C) EGYPTIAN AND ARAB LEAGUE VIEWS ON SOMALIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 007100 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ELA, AF/E E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2026 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER UNSC MARR EG ET SO SUBJECT: (C) EGYPTIAN AND ARAB LEAGUE VIEWS ON SOMALIA REF: A. CAIRO 7041 ¶B. CAIRO 6937 ¶C. CAIRO 6233 CAIRO 00007100 001.2 OF 002 Classified by Minister Counselor for Economic and Political Affairs William R. Stewart for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Egypt, bilaterally and via its strong influence over the Arab League (AL),hopes to help stabilize Somalia and prevent Islamic extremists from taking over. Egypt appears to be hedging its bets with the powerful Council of Islamic Courts (CIC) in hopes of bolstering its more moderates elements. The AL, with strong GOE backing, plans to launch another round of peace talks in Khartoum by December 15. GOE and AL contacts have expressed concerns over U.S. efforts toward a new Security Council resolution on Somalia, believing that lifting the arms embargo or inserting peace keeping forces near Baidoa will hinder peace efforts. End summary. -------------- Egypt, Somalia, and the Arab League -------------- ¶2. (C) Egypt and the Arab League have long been interested in Somalia, which joined the AL in 1974. Egypt, which served as a trustee country when Somalia first gained its independence, traditionally saw Somalia as a counterbalance to potential regional threats, such as the Mengistu regime in Ethiopia. For historic reasons and Somalia's important geo-strategic position, both Egypt and the AL have taken an interest in events in that troubled country. The AL launched diplomatic talks in Khartoum earlier this year aimed at reaching a political settlement, has appointed a special envoy to deal with Somalia, and recently sent a delegation to Mogadishu and surrounding capitals (ref C). In early November, Egypt hosted senior CIC officials in Cairo, including CIC leader Hassan Aweys (ref B); contacts confirmed that Aweys met Egyptian Intelligence Chief Omar Soliman, Grand Sheikh of Al Azhar Tantawi, and senior Arab League officials. -------------- Rumors of GOE Support for the Courts -------------- ¶3. (C) The Aweys visit to Cairo lent some credibility to press reports hinting at GOE material support to the CIC, accusations that Cairo-based Somali diplomat Ismail Hussein (protect) - representing the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) - echoed to poloffs. However, Egypt's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) publicly disavowed a UNSC Somalia Committee report alleging Egyptian state complicity in arming and training the Courts; MFA contacts told poloffs the committee was biased and conducted poor research. The MFA also issued several strongly-worded press releases denying Egyptian support for the CIC. ¶4. (C) MFA Assistant Minister Marzoum Marzouk told poloff that Egypt was "treading lightly" with the Courts, given their militant and ideological leanings. "How can we trust a group that could easily turn on us?" Both the GOE and the Arab League have encouraged the CIC to "moderate" its Islamicism, a point that MFA Deputy Assistant Minister for Horn of Africa Affairs Salah Halima said was at the core of Al Azhar Sheikh Tantawi's message to Aweys. However, Samir Hosni, Director of the Arab League's Africa Office, told poloffs that his CIC contacts are religious moderates, with "one or two exceptions." Halima said the CIC rejected Iranian overtures and is not joined with any terrorist organizations. -------------- Goal - One Somalia Under the TFG -------------- ¶5. (C) Egyptian MFA and Arab League contacts constantly repeat their goal of a peaceful Somalia, governed by the TFG, with the consent of the CIC. Ahmed Haggag, Secretary General of the Africa Society - a Cairo NGO with close ties to the GoE - told poloffs that Egypt has kept the Somali Ambassador to Egypt in Cairo to symbolize that Somalia is still one nation under the TFG. Halima, reading from a transcript of a November 26 meeting of Arab League permanent representatives, listed the League's goals in Somalia as including "territorial integrity" and "affirming the legitimacy of the TFG under President Youssef." -------------- Resume Khartoum Peace Talks -------------- CAIRO 00007100 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) Egypt and the Arab League remain focused on restarting the Khartoum peace talks that faltered October 30. Egyptian MFA Somalia desk officer Mohamed Orabi told poloff that the GOE would like to see a new round of talks begin quickly. According to Halima and Arab League contacts, the CIC pulled out of the talks over the presence of Ethiopian troops in Somalia and concerns of Ethiopian political interference. Attempting to restart talks by December 15, he said, the League is considering raising "foreign troops in Somalia" for negotiation, and tried to convince Aweys that Kenya, not Ethiopia, would continue leading IGAD diplomatic efforts. -------------- Concerns Over U.S. Moves in New York -------------- ¶7. (C) Egyptian and Arab League contacts believe that the U.S. draft text for a new UNSCR on Somalia would increase tensions and lead to greater violence. They say that an IGAD peace-keeping force in and around Baidoa would provoke the CIC to respond, and that lifting the arms embargo would, in Assistant Minister Marzouk's words, "open the flood gates" for weapons to flow into the country. Halima told poloff that sending IGAD or other international peace-keepers without the consent of the Somalis could instigate a regional war. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) The GoE seeks greater U.S. engagement on Somalia, with Egypt and the Somali factions themselves. Despite continuing rumors of GoE support to the CIC, a Somalia ruled by hard-line Islamic extremists would not serve Egyptian interests given Egypt's fight against similar elements at home and abroad. Rather, it appears likely that Egypt is hedging its bets by courting the powerful CIC, seeking to engage and empower its more moderate members. RICCIARDONE