MUBARAK ON DARFUR, IRAQ, IRAN, AND THE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 007000 SIPDIS SIPDIS NEA FOR ELA NSC FOR WATERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS EG IR IZ SU SUBJECT: MUBARAK ON DARFUR, IRAQ, IRAN, AND THE ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT Classified by Ambassador Francis J. Ricciardone for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- Summary/Aciton Request -------------- ¶1. (S) President Mubarak informed visiting Congresswoman Diane Watson on November 27 that he would travel to Khartoum within ten days to follow up on the recent Tripoli Darfur meetings and that he invited the presidents of Eritrea, Chad and the CAR to visit Cairo within the next month. Mubarak warned against including Syria in potential talks with the Iranians, provided views on next steps for the U.S. in Iraq, and advised of upcoming GOE efforts to keep the Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire in place. Action Request: Congresswoman Watson has requested Department to brief her on this report. End summary and action request. -------------- Darfur -------------- ¶2. (S) Representative Watson raised her strong personal determination and that of her colleagues of both parties to urgently end the suffering of the people of Darfur, and requested Mubarak's help. President Mubarak recounted his recent visit to Libya and his personal conversations with Bashir. Mubarak said he was "very tough" on Bashir, even "addressing him like a subordinate," so he would understand how dangerous the situation in Darfur was. Mubarak said Qadhafi had a similar talk with Bashir during the conference. According to Mubarak, his rebukes agitated Bashir: Mubarak told him not to be agitated but to "just listen." Mubarak said he will travel to Khartoum within ten days to meet with Bashir and make sure he "understands" and is taking actin on the Libya discussions. Mubarak also said he had invited the presidents of Chad and the CAR to Cairo for talks within a month, and said he expected an Eritrean delegation to visit Cairo by mid December to follow-up on the Libya summit. He added that EGIS Director Omar Soliman will also continue to talk with the "very difficult" Khalil Ibrahim, whom he described as one of Turabi's ideological "sons -- he is an extremist and was very tough at first, but after a few days with EGIS, he calmed down a bit." ¶3. (C) Mubarak said we all need to work in Sudan to "bring the tribes together" and forge a peace agreement so that peacekeeping could commence. The UN Resolution, though, was "not right," as it deals with secondary issues such as borders and judicial systems; "there is no need for that at the beginning." Mubarak said he wanted to focus on the situation in Darfur first, "and not interfere in internal affairs." ¶4. (C) Representative Watson described the evidence of genocide she had witnessed during her visit to Darfur. Mubarak said that while he granted that terrible violence had occurred, he had his doubts about whether what has happened can be considered genocide. He said the GOE has sent a "special" team there to investigate these claims. The Ambassador noted recent reports of Sudanese government aircraft supporting Janjaweed raids on villages, and reported that we would provide photographic intelligence. Mubarak acknowledged that the GOE has also seen reports, and said this contributed to his very tough treatment of Bashir. -------------- Iraq: Exit Strategy -------------- ¶5. (S) Representative Watson informed President Mubarak that her party was deliberating proposals for a successful U.S. exit strategy in Iraq, including how best to cede security responsibility to its democratically elected government. Mubarak responded emphatically that "for the one-hundredth time I advise you -- forget about democracy in Iraq for now; you will never get out unless you do." Recounting his dealings with Iraqis over the years and his experience with the Iraqi psyche, Mubarak said the Iraqi people require and want a "strong but fair" leader; the ethnic and religious composition of the Iraq cannot support anything else. Referring to some of the potential dangers of democracy in Iraq, Mubarak pointed to the ascension of Hamas in the West Bank and Gaza, a shift he described as "terrible." "These kinds of people (religious extremists) will only use CAIRO 00007000 002 OF 003 democracy to take power, then they won't let go," he said. ¶6. (C) Representative Watson sought Mubarak's views on U.S. troop levels and their deployment within Iraq. Mubarak said there must be well-trained Iraqi troops patrolling the towns and battling the insurgents, and said the redeployment of U.S. forces outside of Iraqi population areas is of the utmost importance. He said we must "move them (the U.S. forces) out of the cities -- put them far away in the desert" and allow a strengthened Iraqi military, that "understands the psychology of the people," deal with the insurgents. "If the troops moved out (of the population areas)," he said," you wouldn't need more of them." Mubarak added that seeking the counsel of Iraq's neighboring countries, particularly Turkey, would be very helpful to our efforts. ¶7. (C) Mubarak recounted his earlier admonitions to the U.S. about dissolving the Iraqi army and using U.S. combat troops to conduct urban patrols. He thought U.S. efforts to train Iraqi military and police forces were ineffective, partially because of an inconsistency in training methods and cultures, i.e. some troops training in the UAE with others in Jordan, etc. The Iraqi military needs to be cohesive and strong, he said, and he feels the troops would receive the best centralized training in Egypt. "Send us 500 Iraqi soldiers every two months," he said, and Egypt will ensure they receive a strong and coherent training program. ¶8. (C) Representative Watson noted that some in her party had proposed partitioning Iraq into three states. Mubarak emphatically warned: "Do not ever commit this mistake," as the three entities "will fight each other until the end of the world." Mubarak insisted the U.S. needed to do all it can to bring the factions together; "listen to my advice," he said, "and you will be safe." He advised we need only look at Somalia for a smaller scale example of what partition brings since "they fight every day" there. -------------- Iran, Syria -------------- ¶9. (S) Representative Watson asked mubarak's views on prospective U.S. diplomatic dialogues with Syria and Iran. Mubarak advised that the U.S. should engage Iran, "if you feel you must," but he warned emphatically against involving Syria in such discussions with them, or separately. Involving Syria, Mubarak insisted, will only make other regional players such as Turkey and Jordan "suspicious," and Syria's slate of "problems" in Lebanon and in the Israeli-Palestinian dispute will hamper progress. Mubarak warned that "talking to Syria would be seen as your giving them a free hand to slap Lebanon," and they would feel affirmed as a central determiner of that country's fate. "This would be dangerous, dangerous, dangerous!" ¶10. (S) Mubarak also warned that Iran is dangerous, particularly as a potential nuclear weapons proliferator. "We want a region free of nuclear weapons." However, the U.S. could engage Iran, as it is supplying arms and money to groups in Iraq and elsewhere and wields a great deal of influence among the Shiites in Iraq and the Arabian Gulf as well. If the U.S. can get Iran to "close the tap," he opined, Syria will cease to be an issue. Mubarak warned that the Iranians are a "mad people," though, and while he does not trust them it is important to understand their thinking. A nuclear Iran is very dangerous, Mubarak asserted, but using force against it would have serious consequences for Iran's neighbors and U.S. interests, including business, in the Gulf and beyond. -------------- Israeli-Palestinian Conflict -------------- ¶11. (S) Representative Watson queried Mubarak on Egypt's efforts to foster peace between the Israelis and Palestinians. Mubarak said that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remained central to the future of the region, and to help "keep the truce alive," he would be sending EGIS Director Omar Soliman to Israel on Wednesday, November 29 to meet with Israeli PM Olmert, the MOD and others, in addition to PA and Hamas officials. Mubarak said PM Olmert told him CAIRO 00007000 003 OF 003 that the Israelis were ready to meet and discuss prisoner releases but Hamas, according to Mubarak, "does not care." Mubarak described Hamas chief Khaled Meshaal as "impossible," and said he had admonished Meshaal over the damage he was bringing upon the Palestinian people by holding the Israeli soldier hostage. RICCIARDONE