IRAQ: ENCOURAGING ADDITIONAL EGYPTIAN AND ARAB

S E C R E T CAIRO 006825

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS PTER EFIN ECON EG IZ
SUBJECT: IRAQ: ENCOURAGING ADDITIONAL EGYPTIAN AND ARAB
LEAGUE ENGAGEMENT

REF: A. STATE 181228 (NOTAL)


B. CAIRO 3924 (NOTAL)

C. CAIRO 5799 (NOTAL)

D. CAIRO 4168 (NOTAL)

CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR FRANCIS RICCIARDONE FOR REASONS 1.4
(B) AND (D).

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SUMMARY
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1. (S) EGYPT'S ENGAGEMENT ON IRAQ, BOTH BILATERALLY AND
MULTILATERALLY, IS QUIET BUT CONSISTENT. PER REFTELS, EGYPT
IS IN FREQUENT COMMUNICATION WITH IRAQI GOVERNMENT LEADERS,
HOSTS HIGH-LEVEL IRAQI DELEGATIONS, AND WILL DEEPEN BILATERAL
TIES AS THE SECURITY SITUATION IN IRAQ PERMITS. EGYPT
MAINTAINS A SMALL DIPLOMATIC PRESENCE IN IRAQ SINCE THE
ABDUCTION AND MURDER OF ITS ENVOY TO BAGHDAD, WHILE BAGHDAD
HAS YET TO POST AN AMBASSADOR TO CAIRO. THE GOE IS A STRONG
AND POSITIVE VOICE WITHIN THE ARAB LEAGUE CONTEXT,
ENCOURAGING EFFORTS AT RECONCILIATION AMONG IRAQI GROUPS.
ENGAGEMENT BY BOTH EGYPT AND THE LEAGUE COULD CERTAINLY
INCREASE, ALTHOUGH WE DOUBT OUR ENTREATIES ON THIS POINT WILL
BE MORE CONVINCING THAN EGYPT'S OWN ASSESSMENTS OF ITS
POLITICAL AND SECURITY INTERESTS THERE. EGYPTIAN BUSINESSES
CONTINUE TO SEEK INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN IRAQ, AND EGYPT
IS CURRENTLY IN CONSULTATIONS WITH A LONDON-BASED FIRM ON THE
ISSUE OF FORGIVING IRAQI DEBTS. END SUMMARY.

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EGYPT SUPPORTS IRAQI GOVERNMENT
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2. (S) EGYPT IS CLOSELY MONITORING EVENTS IN IRAQ, PRIMARILY
VIA THE EGYPTIAN GENERAL INTELLIGENCE SERVICE. CAIRO REMAINS
OPPOSED TO MILITARY COMMITMENTS IN IRAQ, BUT HAS KEPT ITS
OFFER ON THE TABLE TO TRAIN IRAQI POLICE AND MILITARY ON
EGYPTIAN SOIL. GOE LEADERS ARE IN TOUCH WITH IRAQI
COUNTERPARTS, AND ARE OPEN TO A VISIT TO CAIRO BY PRIME
MINISTER MALIKI AND OTHER IRAQI LEADERS. CAIRO HAS BEEN A
LEADER AMONG ARAB STATES IN DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT WITH
SUCCESSIVE IRAQI GOVERNMENTS. ITS INTELLIGENCE SERVICES WORK
WITH US AND THE GOI IN THE COUNTER-TERRORISM FIELD.
ACCORDING TO MFA DEPUTY ASSISTANT MINISTER FOR ARAB AFFAIRS
AMAL MORAD, EGYPT IS CURRENTLY WORKING WITH A PRIVATE
LONDON-BASED ACCOUNTING FIRM HIRED BY IRAQ TO CALCULATE EXACT
FIGURES OWED BY THE GOI TO THE GOE AND GOE-OWNED COMPANIES,
AND ON REMITTANCES TO EGYPTIAN WORKERS. MORAD COULD NOT CITE
A PRECISE FIGURE, BUT STATED THAT THE FIGURE WAS
"CONSIDERABLE FOR EGYPT, BUT SMALL IN COMPARISON TO OTHER
DEBTORS;" PROBABLY IN THE "HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS."
ONCE THE FIRM CALCULATES FIGURES, THE GOE AND THE GOI COULD
NEGOTIATE TERMS OF DEBT FORGIVENESS. MORAD WAS NOT AWARE OF
ANY MAJOR ASSETS OWNED BY THE GOI THAT REMAINED IN EGYPT.
ASKED ABOUT UPCOMING POLITICAL EVENTS OR SENIOR IRAQI VISITS,
MORAD SAID THAT FOREIGN MINISTERS OF IRAQ AND ITS NEIGHBORS
WOULD MEET SOON IN CAIRO. THERE WAS NO NEWS OF A VISIT TO
EGYPT BY IRAQI PM MALIKI, ALTHOUGH MEMBERS OF IRAQ'S NATIONAL
RECONCILIATION COMMITTEE WERE CURRENTLY IN EGYPT TALKING WITH
IRAQI EXPATRIATES.

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ARAB LEAGUE REMAINS ENGAGED
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3. (C) DUE IN PART TO EGYPTIAN PRESSURE, THE ARAB LEAGUE
CONTINUES ITS "RECONCILIATION" PROJECT WORK IN IRAQ,
SPEARHEADED BY MOROCCAN DIPLOMAT MOKHTAR LAMANI. THE LEAGUE
HAS HOSTED NUMEROUS DIPLOMATIC GATHERINGS ON IRAQ, AND HAS
OFFERED MORAL SUPPORT TO SUCCESSIVE IRAQI GOVERNMENTS.
LEAGUE INFLUENCE OVER ITS MEMBER STATES' POLICIES ON IRAQ,
HOWEVER, IS SCANT. THE LEAGUE HAS BEEN ACCUSED BY IRAQS
SHIA AND KURDISH LEADERS AS BIASED IN FAVOR OF IRAQI SUNNIS,
A CHARGE THAT HAS STYMIED EFFORTS BY THE LEAGUE TO SUPPORT
NATIONAL RECONCILIATION. SECRETARY GENERAL AMRE MOUSSA
REMAINS IN CLOSE CONTACT WITH BOTH SENIOR GOI LEADERS AND
POLITICAL PLAYERS INSIDE IRAQ, INCLUDING NON-TERRORIST
RESISTANCE LEADERS. EGYPT STRONGLY INFLUENCES MOUSSA'S
ACTIONS ON IRAQ.

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RESPONSES TO REF A QUESTIONS
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4. (S) QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS (REF A):

- QUESTION: WHAT WOULD BE REQUIRED FOR THE GOE TO BE MORE
ACTIVELY ENGAGED IN IRAQ? WHAT WILL GOE REQUIRE OF IRAQ
BEFORE IT IS WILLING TO INCREASE SUPPORT?

- RESPONSE: THE SECURITY SITUATION IN IRAQ IS THE SINGLE
BIGGEST IMPEDIMENT TO GREATER GOE INVOLVEMENT IN IRAQ. EGYPT
WILL NOT SEND TROOPS TO IRAQ.

- QUESTION: WHAT STRATEGY SHOULD THE USG TAKE IN ENGAGING
GOE TO ENCOURAGE GREATER SUPPORT?

- RESPONSE: WE HAVE CONSISTENTLY ARGUED THAT THE IRAQIS
WEAKEN THEIR OWN CASE IN CAIRO BY NOT SENDING AN AMBASSADOR
HERE WITH BOTH STATURE AND SKILL. THE U.S. SHOULD PRESS THE
GOI TO SEND A CAPABLE, SENIOR-LEVEL ENVOY TO BEGIN CHANGING
ATTITUDES OF BOTH THE EGYPTIAN GOVERNMENT AND LOCAL OPINION
SHAPERS. AN ARTICULATE IRAQI SPOKESMAN IN CAIRO COULD ALSO
PROMOTE IRAQI VIEWS TO PAN ARAB PRESS ORGANS.

- QUESTION: WHAT SPECIFIC CONTRIBUTIONS - FINANCIAL,
POLITICAL, SECURITY, OR OTHER - COULD THE GOE MAKE TO IRAQ,
ASSUMING IT WAS APPROACHED IN THE CORRECT MANNER AND AT AN
APPROPRIATE LEVEL?

- RESPONSE: EGYPT HAS CONSISTENTLY TURNED DOWN ENTREATIES TO
CONTRIBUTE TROOPS FOR IRAQ, AND IS UNLIKELY TO CHANGE
DIRECTION ON THIS ISSUE. THE AREA WHERE COOPERATION IS
GREATEST, AND PERHAPS CAPABLE OF FURTHER EXPANSION, IS IN THE
COUNTER-TERROR AND INTELLIGENCE-SHARING FIELDS. EGYPT IS
WILLING TO TRAIN TROOPS OR POLICE ON EGYPTIAN SOIL.

- QUESTION: WHAT ARE THE GOE'S OPINIONS ON THE RELATIONSHIP
BETWEEN IRAQ AND SYRIA? HOW WILL THE HOST GOVERNMENT
PERCEIVE ANY CHANGE, EITHER FOR THE BETTER OR WORSE, IN THE
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN IRAQ AND SYRIA? HOW COULD THE GOE BE
USED TO INFLUENCE SYRIAN BEHAVIOR TOWARD IRAQ?

- RESPONSE: EGYPTS STRAINED RELATIONS WITH SYRIA STEM FROM
DEEP DISAGREEMENTS OVER THE LATTERS RELATIONS WITH THE
IRANIANS, PALESTINIAN MILITANTS, AND HIZBOLLAH IN LEBANON.
EGYPT KNOWS THE NEGATIVE ROLE SYRIA PLAYS VIS-A-VIS IRAQ, BUT
HAS LIMITED LEVERAGE OVER DAMASCUS, AS WITNESSED IN OTHER
AREAS. PRESIDENT MUBARAK HAS REPEATEDLY URGED PRESIDENT ASAD
TO CURB THE TRAFFIC OF FOREIGN FIGHTERS TO IRAQ, BUT ALSO
URGES US TO ESTABLISH OUR OWN CHANNELS TO DAMASCUS.

- QUESTION: WHAT ARE THE GOE'S OPINIONS ON THE RELATIONSHIP
BETWEEN IRAQ AND IRAN? HOW WILL THE HOST GOVERNMENT PERCEIVE
ANY CHANGE, EITHER FOR BETTER OR FOR WORSE, IN THE
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN IRAQ AND IRAN? HOW COULD THE GOE BE
USED TO INFLUENCE IRANIAN BEHAVIOR TOWARD IRAQ?

- RESPONSE: THE GOE'S RELATIONS WITH TEHRAN (NO FORMAL TIES)
ARE MARKED BY ENMITY AND SUSPICION. PRESIDENT MUBARAK AND
HIS SENIOR MINISTERS ARE CLEAR ON THIS POINT. THE EGYPTIANS
FEAR IRANIAN INROADS INTO IRAQ, AND ARE CONCERNED BY
EXPANDING IRANIAN INFLUENCE ON EGYPT'S DOORSTEP IN GAZA,
WHICH THEY SEE AS A DIRECT RESULT OF U.S. POLICY IN IRAQ.
RICCIARDONE