HISTORIC PARLIAMENTARY SESSION OPENS AGAINST TENSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 006780 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR DORAN AND WATERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EG SUBJECT: HISTORIC PARLIAMENTARY SESSION OPENS AGAINST TENSE BACKDROP REF: A. CAIRO 6521 ¶B. CAIRO 6327 ¶C. CAIRO 6374 CLASSIFIED BY: MINISTER-COUNSELOR FOR ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL AFFAIRS WILLIAM R. STEWART, FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: THE NEW SESSION OF EGYPT'S PARLIAMENT OPENS NOVEMBER 8 AGAINST A BACKDROP OF HEIGHTENED GOVERNMENT-OPPOSITION TENSIONS, AND EXPECTATIONS OF CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM. PRESIDENT MUBARAK IS EXPECTED TO DELIVER A SPEECH OUTLINING THE SPECIFICS OF THE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS PACKAGE TO A JOINT SESSION OF THE PEOPLES ASSEMBLY AND SHOURA COUNCIL ON EITHER NOVEMBER 12 OR ¶19. IN A DEVELOPMENT UNPRECEDENTED IN RECENT PARLIAMENTARY HISTORY, AND A SIGNAL OF THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD (MB) BLOC'S CONTINUED ASSERTIVENESS, THE ASSEMBLY'S SPEAKER, A NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY (NDP) STALWART IN THE JOB SINCE 1990, IS BEING CHALLENGED BY THE MB BLOC LEADER FOR HIS POST. A TURBULENT SESSION OF PARLIAMENT UNDOUBTEDLY LIES AHEAD, BUT IN THE FINAL ANALYSIS, THE NDP'S COMMANDING PARLIAMENTARY MAJORITY ENSURES THAT THE GOE CAN PUSH THROUGH ANY AMENDMENTS AND LAWS IT DESIRES, AND CHOOSE ITS MAN AS SPEAKER. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) ON NOVEMBER 8, THE 2006-2007 SESSION OF EGYPT'S PEOPLE'S ASSEMBLY AND SHOURA COUNCIL OPENS. THE ANTICIPATED AMENDMENT OF 20-25 CONSTITUTIONAL ARTICLES DURING THIS LEGISLATIVE SESSION SETS THE STAGE FOR WHAT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE EGYPT'S MOST HISTORIC PARLIAMENTARY SESSION SINCE 1980, WHEN THEN-PRESIDENT ANWAR EL SADAT ENACTED MAJOR CONSTITUTIONAL REFORMS (MOST NOTABLY, REMOVING PRESIDENTIAL TERM LIMITS, AND ESTABLISHING SHARIA LAW AS THE "PRINCIPAL" SOURCE OF LEGISLATION). THE LEGISLATIVE SESSION OPENS AGAINST A BACKDROP OF ONGOING STUDENT AND LABOR UNION ELECTIONS MARRED BY LIMITED VIOLENCE AND ALLEGATIONS OF GOE MEDDLING AND COERCION (SEPTEL),HIGH COURT DECISIONS THAT THE RESULTS OF NEARLY 100 PARLIAMENTARY CONTESTS IN THE 2005 ELECTIONS SHOULD BE INVALIDATED DUE TO VOTING VIOLATIONS (REF A),AND LOUD DEBATE FROM OPPOSITION PARTIES AND WITHIN CIVIL SOCIETY AS TO THE APPROPRIATE SHAPE OF THE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS PACKAGE (REF B). ¶3. (C) TENSIONS ARE ALSO HIGH WITHIN PARLIAMENT, WHERE INTERNAL ELECTIONS WILL BE HELD NOVEMBER 8 FOR THE ASSEMBLY'S SPEAKER, DEPUTY SPEAKER, AND COMMITTEE CHAIRMANSHIPS. IN A DEVELOPMENT UNPRECEDENTED IN RECENT PARLIAMENTARY HISTORY, AND A SIGNAL OF THE MB BLOC'S CONTINUED ASSERTIVENESS, SPEAKER FATHI SUROUR, AN NDP STALWART WHO HAS HELD HIS POST SINCE 1990, IS BEING CHALLENGED BY MB LEGISLATIVE LQER SA'AD AL KATATNI (NOTE: SUROUR'S VIRTUAL OWNERSHIP OF THE SPEAKERS POSITION HAS NOT PREVIOUSLY BEEN SERIOUSLY OPPOSED, AND EVEN THE MB BLOC ENDORSED HIM FOR THE POST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LAST PARLIAMENTARY SESSION. END NOTE). GIVEN THE NDP'S UNASSAILABLE PARLIAMENTARY MAJORITY, IT IS NEAR IMPOSSIBLE FOR KATATNI TO WIN THE BALLOT, BUT THE MERE FACT THAT THE MB IS CONFIDENT TO TREAD WHERE NO OPPOSITION PARTY HAS IS AN INDICATION THAT THE ROBUST ACTIVIST RECORD OF THE MB IN THE LAST SESSION OF PARLIAMENT WILL LIKELY BE REPEATED, IF NOT EXCEEDED, IN THIS NEW SESSION. ¶4. (C) PRESIDENT HOSNI MUBARAK IS EXPECTED TO DELIVER A MUCH-ANTICIPATED SPEECH OUTLINING THE SPECIFICS OF THE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS PACKAGE TO A JOINT SESSION OF THE PEOPLE'S ASSEMBLY AND SHOURA COUNCIL ON EITHER NOVEMBER 12 OR 19 (NOTE: DUE TO SECURITY CONCERNS, THE PRESIDENTIAL PALACE IS EXTREMELY CLOSE-MOUTHED ABOUT THE DATE OF THE SPEECH. END NOTE). ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF THE AMENDMENTS WILL NOT BECOME CLEAR UNTIL THAT SPEECH, OPPOSITION PARTIES, THE MB, INDEPENDENT PARLIAMENTARIANS, CIVIL SOCIETY, AND THE INFLUENTIAL JUDGES CLUB ARE ALREADY FOCUSED ON ANTICIPATED DIFFERENCES WITH THE RULING NDP REGARDING THE POSSIBLE AMENDMENT OF ARTICLES 76 (TO POTENTIALLY EASE RESTRICTIVE REQUIREMENTS GOVERNING THE NOMINATION OF PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES),77 (TERM LIMITS),88 (WHICH CURRENTLY MANDATES JUDICIAL SUPERVISION OF ELECTIONS),AND 41 (WHICH PROHIBITS SEARCH AND DETENTION OF CITIZENS ABSENT A JUDICIAL WARRANT; GOE CONTACTS ARGUE THAT UNTIL THIS ARTICLE IS REVISED, THE STATE OF EMERGENCY CANNOT BE LIFTED, AND A NEW CT LAW CANNOT BE IMPLEMENTED, WHILE CIVIL SOCIETY AND JUDICIAL CONTACTS ARGUE AGAINST ANY AMENDMENT BECAUSE OF THE DUE PROCESS IMPLICATIONS) (REF B AND C). ¶5. (C) IN ADDITION TO THE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS, SENIOR GOE SOURCES REPORT THAT THE LEGISLATIVE AGENDA WILL ALSO INCLUDE DEBATE ON NEW LAWS REGARDING THE ESTABLISHMENT OF SPECIAL "ECONOMIC COURTS"; REGULATING LOCAL ADMINISTRATION; "GUARANTEEING DEMOCRACY" IN THE PROFESSIONAL SYNDICATES; REVISING REAL ESTATE TAXES; WATER RESOURCES; CIVIL SERVICE; AND SOCIAL SECURITY AND PENSIONS. THE GOE ALSO PLANS TO PROPOSE AMENDMENTS TO THE BANKRUPTCY ARTICLES OF THE TRADE LAW, AND THE AMENDMENT OF LAW # 14/1923 (WHICH RELATES TO THE CONVENING OF PUBLIC MEETINGS AND DEMONSTRATIONS). ¶6. (C) COMMENT: WE ANTICIPATE THAT A TURBULENT SESSION OF PARLIAMENT LIES AHEAD, WITH FIERCE DEBATE INSIDE THE PEOPLE'S ASSEMBLY MIRRORED OUTSIDE THE LEGISLATIVE ARENA BY DEMONSTRATIONS AND VOCAL CRITICISM OF THE GOVERNMENT AND NDP FROM CIVIL SOCIETY, OPPOSITION PARTIES, AND PROFESSIONAL SYNDICATES. IN THE FINAL ANALYSIS, THE NDPS COMMANDING PARLIAMENTARY MAJORITY ENSURES THAT THE GOE CAN PUSH THROUGH ANY AMENDMENTS AND LAWS IT DESIRES; HOWEVER, THE RHETORICAL BATTLES SURROUNDING THE AMENDMENTS PROCESS ITSELF ARE LIKELY TO FURTHER HEIGHTEN TENSIONS AND ANIMOSITIES BETWEEN THE MUBARAK GOVERNMENT AND ITS CRITICS IN THE LEAD-UP TO THE ANTICIPATED SPRING NATIONAL REFERENDUM ON THE CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGES. RICCIARDONE