MUBARAK INDICATES AMENDMENT 76 LIKELY TO BE CHANGED

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 006595 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR DORAN AND WATERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM EG SUBJECT: MUBARAK INDICATES AMENDMENT 76 LIKELY TO BE CHANGED REF: CAIRO 6327 Classified By: Minister-Counselor for Economic and Political Affairs William R. Stewart, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) In an October 30 meeting with members of the National Democratic Party (NDP) parliamentary bloc, President Hosni Mubarak reportedly stated that he is open to amending contoversial constitutional Article 76. Presidential spokesman Suleiman Awad subsequently told the pres that the president, "will not oppose considerig an amendment to Article 76, in order to increae the chances of (political) parties to participae in presidential elections." Parliamentary speaer Fathi Sorour stated to the Middle East News Aency that Article 76 will be among the constitutioal articles amended during the next parliamentar session. No details were provided as to how Article 76 might be changed. ¶2. (SBU) As reported reftel, it is anticipated that in the upcoming parliamentary session, a package of 20-25 constitutional amendments will be debated. Article 76, last amended in 2005, states that only a political party that has been established for five years and holds five percent of the seats in the Peoples Assembly and the Shoura Council may put forward a Presidential candidate (of Egypt's twenty legally recognized political parties, only the NDP currently meets those conditions). Article 76 also requires that any party candidate must have occupied a top leadership position in his party for a period of at least one year, and that in order for an "independent" candidate to run, he must be endorsed by 250 members of Egypt's national and local representative bodies, of which there must be a minimum of 65 endorsements from the People's Assembly and 25 from the Shoura Council. In addition, an independent would require the endorsements of ten Local Councils from at least fourteen provinces. ¶3. (C) Embassy contacts are largely skeptical of the proposed change to Article 76, with most speculating that any radical alteration is not likely. Some have commented that they were enthusiastic when Article 76 came up for amendment last year, only to be bitterly disappointed by the end-result; "using history as a guide," they thus expect only "cosmetic" changes this time around. Conventional wisdom at this point is that any changes to Article 76 will deal strictly with the requirements for presidential candidates from political parties - i.e., perhaps easing the condition that a political party must hold five-percent of the seats in Parliament in order to field a presidential candidate. ¶4. (C) None of our contacts anticipates that the stringent requirements for an independent to run for president will be relaxed, in large part because the GOE does not want to open the door to a presidential candidate from the Muslim Brotherhood (MB). MB Supreme Guide Mohamed Habib was quoted today in the press that, "If (Mubarak) only intends to remove the restrictions for the parties and not the independents, then he is deliberately excluding the MB ... this means (Mubarak) is pursuing the same anti-democratic procedure, and he is aiming for hereditary power and the succession of Gamal." Even NDP parliamentarians remain in the dark as to how Article 76 might be changed; as one who was at yesterday's meeting with Mubarak told us, "We cannot count on anything until after the President delivers his speech before Parliament on November 12, and lays out exactly what he wants to change." RICCIARDONE