SPECIAL ENVOY NATSIOS'S OCTOBER 21 MEETING WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 006582 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/29/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS PTER EAID EG SU SUBJECT: SPECIAL ENVOY NATSIOS'S OCTOBER 21 MEETING WITH EGYPTIAN INTELLIGENCE CHIEF OMAR SOLIMAN Classified by DCM Stuart Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) In an introductory meeting October 21, Intelligence Chief Omar Soliman reviewed Egyptian thinking on Sudan and Darfur with U.S. Presidential Envoy for Sudan, Andrew Natsios. Despite tense relations with Khartoum, Egypt is working to resolve the conflict in Darfur and to bolster the stability and authority of the central government to prevent further conflicts. Egypt expects to host two key Darfur rebel non-signatories in Cairo in late October, aiming to broker an agreement by year's end between rebels and the GOS. Soliman highlighted the important regional roles played by Eritrea in Sudan, and encouraged U.S. discussions with Asmara on the issue. Egypt is also conferring with Chad and Libya on ways to resolve the conflict in Darfur. Natsios shared USG views on Darfur, explaining the humanitarian motivations for U.S. activism, and sought Soliman's views on internal political dynamics of the Sudanese regime. He also pressed for prompt international action on Darfur. Last, the two touched on a Sudanese report regarding attempted economic deal-making in Darfur. End summary. ¶2. (U) Natsios was accompanied by the Ambassador, U.S. Charge d'Affaires to Sudan Cameron Hume, AF/SE Chief of Staff Andrew Steinfeld, ORA Deputy Chief, and ECPO Notetaker. -------------- Troubled Ties with Sudan -------------- ¶3. (C) Soliman described the importance of Sudan to Egypt and tensions between the two states that date back primarily to the time of Hassan al Turabi. "Despite their having tried to kill our President," he said, Mubarak chose to avoid "spilling blood between us." Now, he added, the government in Sudan has "too many problems" to deal with and "we need to help them." The government now includes many southerners and opposition groups, and the relative power of the National Islamic Front, he added, is reduced. Soliman argued that the central government's "ignoring" of Darfur's needs has contributed greatly to the crisis. The AU's intervention has been stymied, he added, since it did not send "good troops." -------------- Darfur Rebel Groups to Cairo -------------- ¶4. (C) Soliman told Natsios that Egypt is addressing the Darfur conflict with both the rebels and the government. Egypt, he said, had invited Abdel Wahed Nur, Ibrahim Khalil ("we don't like him"),and others to Cairo on October 28 to discuss the Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) and security situation in that region. In their response accepting the invitation, he noted, the rebels acknowledged Egypt as the only state with influence over the GOS. He hopes Egypt can succeed in brokering an agreement by year-end. With the GOS, Egypt hopes to convince them to offer more positions in government to Darfur rebel leaders ("although not too many privileges"),and improve living conditions in Darfur. He said if the rebels and the GOS reach agreement, a transition to UN forces would not be a problem. Conversely, he added, without such an agreement the situation will remain "stuck." -------------- Roles of Eritrea, Chad Important -------------- ¶5. (C) Soliman noted the recent peace agreement signed in Asmara, Eritrea between the GOS and Eastern Sudanese rebel groups, and pointed to the "good influence" which Asmara has over Darfur rebel groups. The U.S., he said, "needs to meet the Eritreans" and encourage them to do more to help in Darfur. Similarly, Chad's role in the Darfur crisis is crucial. Chadian President Deby, he added, "is being cooperative" and can help resolve problems in Darfur. Still, Bashir uses the Zaghawa tribe in Darfur to create problems for Deby in Chad. Soliman also added that he broke fast "one day last week" with Libyan leader Qadhafi, who he asked to help stop the fighting in Darfur. -------------- Crucial to Bolster Central Authority -------------- ¶6. (C) At several points in the conversation, Soliman expressed concern over the ability of the Sudanese government to retain control and prevent the collapse of central CAIRO 00006582 002 OF 002 authority. "We need to help them," as the problems are "too much for any government to handle." There are growing problems in Nuba Mountains, and "small cells" are working toward separation in Kordofan. Egypt is pressing the Eastern Sudan groups to settle their disputes with the government. If we don't continue working to resolve the various crises, Sudan will become like Congo in regards to the chaos and destruction there. Despite the many problems, he said that Egypt is trying to "raise the morale" of the Sudanese government, and to motivate it to address development issues in the South and the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement. ¶7. (C) Asked by Natsios about the probability of a military coup against Bashir, and the degree of Islamist support among officers, Soliman said many younger officers who joined the military after Bashir's rise to power had fallen under the influence of Hassan Al Turabi at the military academy and were sympathetic toward him. However, if there is a Turabi-led military coup, he added that "we won't allow such a coup to succeed." Our policy is to support the present government ("comprised of 48% southerners") and to change the mood so the government is not so weak, he added. If it remains weak, this will only encourage others in Sudan to rebel and continue the chaos. -------------- Natsios Cites Time Crunch -------------- ¶8. (C) Arguing for prompt international action on Darfur, Natsios noted the coming change of the UN Secretary General and senior staff would leave a deep gap on Sudan expertise. Also, if there is a change in control of one or both houses of Congress, Administration policy may be under new pressures. Should there be wide-scale killing in Darfur as a result of GOS policy, the administration may come under enormous pressure to act, warned Natsios. -------------- Western Conspiracy: Oil in Darfur? -------------- ¶9. (C) Recounting a conversation with Egyptian Presidential Spokesman and Advisor to the President Soliman Awad, the Ambassador asked for details about two Western businessmen who promised to Bashir that they would "make Western political pressure on Darfur go away" if given mineral exploration rights in Darfur. They said they planned to search for oil and uranium. Soliman confirmed that Bashir raised the issue with Mubarak, and that Bashir had talked to the two, one American and one European, in Russia when he was there in early September. Apart from a mailing address in Russia, neither the Sudanese nor the Egyptians had further information on the two. ¶10. (U) This message was cleared by SE Natsios' staff. RICCIARDONE