WE WILL NOT BE SILENT: CAIRO JUDGES CLUB READIES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 006374

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR RICK WATERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KJUS EG
SUBJECT: WE WILL NOT BE SILENT: CAIRO JUDGES CLUB READIES
FOR BATTLE OVER CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS

REF: A. CAIRO 3006


B. CAIRO 6327

C. CAIRO 3993

Classified By: Minister-Counselor for Economic and Political Affairs
William R. Stewart, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: A leading member of the influential Cairo
Judges Club (JC) detailed for poloff in an October 11 meeting
JC plans to prepare recommendations regarding upcoming
constitutional amendments. He noted that the Judges Club
plans to be "activist" during this "critical period of
constitutional change" -- "we will not be silent in the face
of government attempts to avoid true reform," and opined
that the USG should support reform during the next six months
by (1) maintaining constant pressure on the GOE for
"authentic change" and, (2) when anticipated demonstrations
against the government's proposed amendments package begin, a
senior-level USG official should make public comments in
support of the principles of the freedom to demonstrate and
freedom of speech, and highlight USG concern over any harsh
measures that might be taken against peaceful demonstrators.
End summary.

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JUDGES CLUB PLANS REGARDING AMENDMENTS
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2. (C) In an October 11 meeting, Judge Hisham El Bastawisi
(protect),a vice-president of the Court of Cassation,
prominent member of the Cairo Judges Club (JC),and one of
two judges at the center of the GOE-Judges Club crisis this
spring (reftel A),detailed for poloff JC planning regarding
the anticipated upcoming changes to the Egyptian constitution
(Note: As reported reftel B, President Hosni Mubarak is
expected to premiere a package of constitutional amendments
in a speech at the opening of Parliament in mid-November.
End note). According to Bastawisi, the JC has formed a
committee (of which Bastawisi is a member) that is preparing
consolidated JC recommendations on the possible
constitutional amendments. Bastawisi anticipates that the
JC's proposals will include: No amending of Article 88
(judicial supervision of elections); no amendment of Article
41 (which prohibits search and detention of citizens, absent
a judicial warrant; GOE contacts argue that until this
article is revised, the state of emergency cannot be lifted,
and a new CT law cannot be implemented); amending Article 77
so that the President is limited to two terms in office; and
amending Article 76 to ease the onerous requirements for
becoming a presidential candidate, and to abolish the
"Presidential Election Committee" that is charged with
supervising the presidential election process.


3. (C) Bastawisi, a soft-spoken, impressive jurist, said that
the Judges Club plans to be "activist" during this "upcoming
critical period of constitutional change" -- "we will not be
silent in the face of government attempts to avoid true
reform." He commented that once his health improves (he
suffered a heart-attack in May, at the height of the JC push
for a new law, and the GOE-JC crisis over accusations against
him and Judge Ahmed Mekky for "defaming" judicial colleagues
by exposing to the media instances of fraud and manipulation
in the 2005 parliamentary elections),he plans to play a more
vigorous public role in the debate on constitutional
amendments. Bastawisi noted that "wherever I go in Egypt,
people recognize me as one of the judges from the crisis this
spring, and complete strangers urge me to 'not give up.'" He
also commented that the JC has formed a separate committee
that is drafting a new judiciary law. (Note: As reported
reftel C, a new judiciary law was enacted in June 2006, but
the JC was unhappy with the final text, which did not
incorporate many of their recommendations. End note).

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ADVICE ON HOW U.S. CAN SUPPORT REFORM
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4. (C) Bastawisi made a point of noting his personal
gratitude to the USG, saying he had been told that the ruling
against him in May (an official reprimand) was minimized due
to pressure from the U.S. Ambassador on the GOE, and, "I am
deeply appreciative of this." He opined that the USG should
support reform during the next six months by (1) maintaining
constant pressure on the GOE in private meetings, and
impressing upon Egyptian policymakers the importance of
"authentic change" and, (2) "in a few months, when
demonstrators are in the streets, protesting against the
charade of the government's proposed amendments, and they are
being arrested or abused by the Egyptian police, it would be

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extremely helpful if President Bush or Secretary Rice made
public comments in support of the principles of the freedom
to demonstrate and freedom of speech, and highlighted USG
concern over the harsh measures I anticipate will be taken
against peaceful demonstrators." Bastawisi noted that
senior-level USG public comments on Egyptian reform are
"tremendously important," commenting that during the 2005
elections, Egyptians were focused on whether President Bush
would criticize the elections abuses during his weekly radio
addresses - "it really matters whether the U.S. says
something or not, both in terms of assisting reform in Egypt,
but also in terms of regaining U.S. credibility."


5. (C) Interestingly, Bastawisi appeared to be staunchly
anti-Muslim Brotherhood (MB),criticizing the group
throughout the meeting, and discussing his efforts to combat
their appeal. The Cairo Judges Club is often cited by GOE
contacts as a bastion of the MB, but this leading member, at
least, seems to be a vehement MB critic. He told poloff that
he does not consider the MB the most powerful political force
in the country - "yes, they did well in the last elections,
but only approximately 20 percent of Egyptians voted. We
must work to mobilize that other 80 percent." He opined that
the non-voting "80 percent" are scared to participate, and do
not see any utility in voting, as they do not trust the
system. "We must convince them that they should participate
- USG efforts should also concentrate on reaching that 80
percent, if you want to avoid empowering Islamists."

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INTERNAL DYNAMICS OF JUDGES CLUB
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6. (C) In response to poloff's queries about the
representativeness of JC, Bastawisi noted that the JC is the
only Egyptian institution which has had regular elections
since the late 1930's. According to him, every year,
one-third of the Club's 15-member board goes up for election;
in November, seven seats on the board will be contested (a
third-of the board seats (five) plus two additional seats
which are being vacated). Bastawisi opined that if the JC's
current activist role is not representative among Cairo's
judges, that will be reflected in the election results, and
vice versa. He also analyzed current JC internal dynamics -
"inside the Club, there is an ongoing debate over the
appropriate role for judges. I estimate that roughly 2000
judges feel that judges should not be independent, but rather
subservient to a dominant executive. They willingly support
the government's view, for which they receive various
privileges doled out by the GOE. 2000 other judges are
vigorous defenders of the complete independence of the
judiciary, and 4000 are on the fence, unsure about the issue.
I am focusing on those 4000, trying to convince them that
judicial independence is paramount."


JONES