NO SURPRISES AT NDP PARTY CONFERENCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 CAIRO 006016

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR RICK WATERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/24/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EG
SUBJECT: NO SURPRISES AT NDP PARTY CONFERENCE

REF: CAIRO 5430

Classified By: DCM Stuart Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The ruling National Democratic Party's annual
party conference, convened under the banner "New Thinking ...
and the Second Leap Towards the Future," closed on September
21, following three days of animated speeches, discussion
panels, plenary sessions, and discourse on policy papers.
Despite a rhetorical emphasis on reform, both economic and
political, few details were fleshed out as to the substance
of the package of 20-25 constitutional amendments set to be
debated during the upcoming parliamentary session (which will
open in November). Repeated comments by speakers throughout
the conference, "rejecting" a "new" or "greater" Middle East
reflected frustration with the U.S., as well as a desire to
score points domestically by striking out against the West.
President Mubarak stressed the need to reinvigorate the peace
process, and Gamal Mubarak publicly premiered Egypt's
intention to pursue development of a nuclear energy program.
Gamal was the clear star of the show, overshadowing his
counterparts in the NDP party apparatus. Many Embassy
contacts view Gamal's performance as a further burnishing of
his leadership credentials and cementing of his position to
become the NDP's next presidential candidate. Gamal's coy
abjurations aside, it is clear from the events of the
conference, and his place in the party limelight, that he is
positioning himself to do just that. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) The ruling National Democratic Party's annual party
conference, convened under the banner "New Thinking ... and
the Second Leap Towards the Future," closed on September 21,
following three days of animated speeches, discussion panels,
plenary sessions, and discourse on policy papers with titles
such as "Citizenship and Democracy", "Egyptian National
Security and the Future of the Middle East", "Employment and
Investment Policies", and "The Future of Energy." Hundreds
of politicking and glad-handing NDP members from across the
country crowded into the massive conference hall, alongside
cabinet ministers, press, and "foreign visitors" (including a
few diplomats and a U.S. congressional staffdel, but also
many American, European, and Asian academics and NGO
personnel). Major speeches of the event included opening
addresses by NDP Secretary General Safwat al-Sherif and
Assistant Secretary General Gamal Mubarak, comments to a
plenary session by PM Ahmed Nazif, and remarks by President
Mubarak at the closing session. All of the speakers
highlighted broad themes of continued economic liberalization
and upcoming constitutional changes.

-------------- --------------
NO FURTHER DETAILS ON POLITICAL REFORM, CONSTITUTIONAL
AMENDMENTS
-------------- --------------


3. (C) While "reform," both political and economic, was on
the lips of virtually every speaker at the conference, and
was clearly the main rhetorical theme of the event, details
of the 20-25 constitutional amendments that are set to be
debated during the coming session of parliament (which will
begin in November) were not discussed. Various speakers
outlined the broad parameters of the amendments, largely
drawing from the platform laid out during last year's
presidential campaign. President Mubarak, in his closing
comments to the conference, stated, "The next year will be a
year of constitutional amendments, the largest and widest
since 1980, the features of which I proposed last year, in a
new step that completes the structure of our Egyptian
democracy." NDP Assistant Secretary General for
Parliamentary Affairs Mufeed Shehab, in comments during a
plenary session, stated that the proposed amendments will
address various key issues, including, "empowering the
People's Assembly with the right to withdraw confidence from
the government without referring the issue to a public
referendum; giving parliament a more substantive role in
budgetary oversight; strengthening the powers of the Shura
Council; strengthening the powers of the cabinet (for
example, by requiring the President to seek the opinion of
the PM, Speaker of the People's Assembly and Shoura Council
in cases where national security is threatened, and allowing
the cabinet to review decrees before they are referred to the
President),increasing the powers of local councils, and
revising the electoral system so as to support the chances of
representation of political parties and women in Parliament."



4. (SBU) Gamal Mubarak commented during a plenary session
that the scope of the proposed constitutional amendments,
"... is unprecedented, and will shape the constitutional life
of Egypt for at least the next 30 years." He noted during a

CAIRO 00006016 002 OF 004


subsequent press conference (when queried about the lack of
detail during the conference on the proposed amendments) that
the Parliament and Shura Council had discussed the amendments
in committees during the previous parliamentary session, and
would debate them in further detail in the coming session.


5. (C) During the plenary session on "Citizenship and
Democracy," anxious NDP parliamentarians raised several
questions from the floor regarding the specifics of how the
proposed proportional representation electoral system would
work. Both Gamal Mubarak and panelist Mohamed Kamal (NDP
Policy Committee member, Gamal advisor, and the "idea man"
behind many of the proposed political reforms) highlighted
that, while the end goal is to foster political parties and
enhanced participation of women in Egyptian political life,
no final decisions had yet been taken regarding a new
electoral system, and that Parliament would debate its
precise shape and mechanisms. Both also noted President
Mubarak's decision that the new electoral system will not be
utilized for the upcoming spring 2007 Shura Council
elections, but will be in force for all subsequent elections.



6. (C) No mention was made throughout the conference of the
controversial proposed amending of Article 88 (which provides
for judicial supervision of the elections) to create an
electoral commission to oversee elections. There was no
formal discussion of the possibility of amending
constitutional Articles 76 and 77 (to ease the rigorous
requirements to become a presidential candidate, and to
institute term limits, respectively),although Gamal noted,
in response to query at his press conference on those
specific articles, that "of course we welcome discussion from
all parts of Egyptian society regarding any constitutional
amendments ... but we are now focused on the President's
program, as outlined during the election campaign, and he
already amended Article 76 last year."


7. (C) Conference speakers, including President Mubarak,
repeatedly referenced the ongoing drafting of a new
Anti-Terror Law, to allow lifting of the Emergency Law (in
force since 1981). In response to questions from the floor,
Mufeed Shehab noted that the new legislation will not replace
the Emergency Law, but rather will abolish the state of
emergency - "the Emergency Law will still be in our desk
drawer, but will only be invoked should domestic national
security be threatened."

-------------- --------------
SUBTEXT: A CHILL IN THE U.S.-EGYPTIAN RELATIONSHIP
-------------- --------------


8. (C) Comments by speakers throughout the conference
reflected frustration with American policy in the Middle
East, as well as a desire to score points domestically and
increase the NDP's popular credibility, by striking out
against the United States. In his opening remarks to the
conference, Gamal Mubarak earned the loudest applause of the
day when he declaimed, "We reject foreign initiatives that
daily attempt to erase Arab identity through what is called
the Middle East Initiative Project .... We don't accept
powers from outside the region trying to make a new reality
in the Middle East!" Safwat al-Sherif also earned roaring
applause when he stated, "We reject the idea of a new or
greater Middle East, and aggressive policies in Lebanon, and
foreign forces in Sudan."


9. (C) In subsequent comments throughout the conference, in
the context of discussions on the U.S.-Egyptian relationship,
Gamal and other NDP officials repeatedly referenced Egypt's
burgeoning relationship with China, intimating that Egypt's
other relationships make it less dependent than it once was
on the U.S.. At an invitation-only panel session for foreign
observers, Gamal was queried as to how he envisions
U.S.-Egyptian relations looking in 3-5 years. His reply: "The
premise upon which the U.S.-Egyptian relationship was
established in the late 1970,s is no longer the correct
basis for it. The AID program was the pillar of the
relationship ) it can no longer be, and we no longer need it
to be. There is now trade and investment with many partners.
We experienced the hiccup of no FTA with the U.S., while we
have an FTA with Europe and Turkey, and have burgeoning trade
relationships with Asian countries. We need to redefine the
word "close" in our relationship ... we must listen to each
other. There has not been much of that in the past few years.
Lots of talking, but little listening. The 9/11 paradigm
cannot continue to dominate U.S. thinking, so that it does
not listen to its allies and friends."

--------------

CAIRO 00006016 003 OF 004


MUBARAK: RESTART PEACE PROCESS
--------------


10. (SBU) While reflecting similar frustration with the U.S.,
President Mubarak was more restrained in his public comments,
and highly focused on reinvigorating the peace process,
noting in his speech that, "... The failure and aborting of
the peace process is at the core of the Middle East problem.
It is high time for international forces to acknowledge this
fact and deal with it in a serious and fair effort without
delay. Any talk about a greater or new Middle East ignores
this fact... We live in a region that is going through a
critical phase of disturbances and instability ... which sees
attempts to impose a new regional reality that does not suit
the circumstances, conditions, and priorities, and fails to
see the challenges faced by its people ... Any talk of the
war on terror must be accompanied by a discussion of the root
causes and an urgent move to find fair solutions to
unresolved issues that feed feelings of anger and extremism,
and gives terrorism pretexts and reasons."

--------------
GOING NUCLEAR
--------------


11. (C) In his September 19 opening speech to the conference,
Gamal noted that Egypt needs to explore alternative energy
options, "among them, nuclear energy." In later comments,
Gamal stressed that as a signatory to the Non-Proliferation
Treaty (NPT),Egypt has the right to develop and possess
nuclear energy to be utilized for peaceful purposes. His
comments were echoed in subsequent speeches by other top NDP
officials, including President Mubarak. These remarks, the
first time in recent years that an Egyptian official has made
public reference to Egypt's ambitions for nuclear energy, and
made against the backdrop of continued tensions regarding
Iran's nuclear program, seemed aimed at reasserting Egypt's
pre-eminence as a regional leader, and re-establishing the
GOE's Arab nationalist credentials domestically, particularly
in the wake of the Lebanon crisis. U.S. representative to
the IAEA Ambassador Schulte and U/S Robert Joseph had both
previously discussed the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership
with the GOE (reftel). We will follow up with the PM's
office and the Ministry of Electricity, who will be directing
Egypt's nuclear energy efforts. Further detail on Egypt's
potential nuclear power program reported septel.

--------------
GAMAL ASCENDANT
--------------


12. (C) The conference was nominally presided over by NDP
Secretary General Safwat al-Sherif, but the real star of the

SIPDIS
show was Gamal Mubarak, whose involvement in the activities
(an hour-long speech at the opening session, chairmanship of
several discussion panels, speeches to virtually every
plenary session, and an individual press conference)
overshadowed that of Sherif, PM Nazif, or any other NDP
official, including his counterparts in the NDP hierarchy,
Assistant Secretary Generals Mufeed Shehab and Zakaria Azmy.
Gamal appeared confident throughout the conference
proceedings, more relaxed than at previous party conferences,
and his command of a range of subjects - from improving
railway services and privatization, to health sector reform,
to the minutiae of various electoral systems - was
impressive. Gamal's premiering of the NDP's plans to explore
nuclear energy options, coupled with his implicit criticism
of the U.S., seems indicative of a shrewd political gambit
aimed at redefining himself as a strong Egyptian nationalist.



13. (C) Throughout the conference, Gamal seemed to be trying
to strike a populist tone and reaching out to a less
privileged Egyptian constituency, perhaps in response to
criticisms over the past year that Gamal, and the NDP, are
out of touch with the lives of ordinary Egyptians. For
instance, in his opening speech Gamal said, "Many assumed I
would use the conference's opening speech to proudly list the
achievements of the government and party members. They will
be disappointed, because in this conference I aim to focus on
the hardships suffered by ordinary Egyptian citizens from
Marsa Matrouh in the west to Sinai in the east and Aswan in
the south ... The principal job of participants at this
conference is to air the hardships and grievances which poor
families face, ranging from water pollution and disease in
cities like Kafr Al-Sheikh and Kafr-Al Zayat to severe
unemployment in Upper Egypt."


14. (C) Many Embassy contacts view Gamal's performance at the
NDP conference as a further burnishing of his leadership

CAIRO 00006016 004 OF 004


credentials and cementing of his position to become the NDP's
candidate when the next presidential elections are held.
Such speculation was furthered by the widely reported
comments of prominent NDP reformer Hossam Badrawi to the NDP
newspaper Al Watany Al Yom on the first day of the conference
that, "We as a party have the right to nominate (as a
presidential candidate) he who has the leadership
qualifications, and he, if it is Gamal Mubarak, may accept or
reject that nomination .... And this is not 'inheritance of
power', because at the end of the day, it must take place in
a framework of transparency and democracy." When queried
about Badrawi's comments during a subsequent press
conference, Gamal stated, "I have been asked this question
many times before. I cannot prevent people from saying what
they want .... People in the party debate a lot of issues.
And they can say what they want about all issues, including
this one." Coy abjurations aside, it is clear from the
events of the conference, and his front and center place in
the party limelight, that Gamal is positioning himself as the
next top leader of the NDP.

RICCIARDONE