EGYPT'S POLITICAL REFORM PROCESS: SAAD EDDIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 005865 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC STAFF FOR WATERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM EG SUBJECT: EGYPT'S POLITICAL REFORM PROCESS: SAAD EDDIN IBRAHIM AND THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD Classified by Deputy Chief of Mission Stuart Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Leading Egyptian democracy activist Saad Eddin Ibrahim confirmed that he is deeply disappointed by what he perceives as diminished USG support for democratic reform in the Middle East. Ibrahim is worried that the USG is pulling back from once clear support for democracy in the region, as a result of fear about Islamist success at the ballot box. Although Ibrahim said that he and his organization, the Ibn Khaldun Center (IKC),unambiguously support secular democracy, Middle Eastern Islamist parties are a fact of life in the region and can neither be ignored nor eliminated. Ibrahim recommended that the USG urge allies like Egypt to bring the Islamists into democratic political processes, and compel them to play politics by universally accepted standards. Ibrahim said that IKC will not use USG democracy assistance to benefit Egypt's banned Muslim Brotherhood. End summary. ¶2. (C) In recent conversations with emboffs, leading Egyptian democracy activist Saad Eddin Ibrahim elaborated on his August articles in the Washington Post and Al-Masry Al-Youm, Egypt's leading independent daily. Ibrahim said that the region's democracy activists had been "alone for the past 27 years, ... (but then President) Bush took notice and helped on democracy." Ibrahim said, "I thought at one time the U.S. would support democracy, but I was wrong." Ibrahim believed that the summer 2006 Israeli incursion into Lebanon marked a turning point because "Israel was threatened by Lebanon as a new democracy in the region." Ibrahim bitterly concluded that the U.S. appeared "willing to sacrifice democracy in Lebanon." ¶3. (C) Emboffs assured Ibrahim that the USG remains fully committed to supporting democratic reform in Egypt, but there is concern that Ibrahim's apparent openness to cooperation with the Muslim Brotherhood has led to questions about his methods. Ibrahim assured us that he has no desire to see the MB empowered any more than they already are. He argued specifically that the new democracy project IKC plans to implement with USAID funding is designed to build support in Egypt for a secular democratic alternative to both the GOE/NDP and the MB. He said he would have no objection to certifying in writing (through the grant document or other agreement) that the Ibn Khaldun Center will work only with legal organizations. Ibrahim argued strongly that Egypt needs more secular parties like Ayman Nour's Ghad Party and Osama Ghazali Harb's proposed Democratic Front Party to counter the appeal of the MB message. ¶4. (C) Regarding his view on the MB, Ibrahim said that they are a "fact of life" in contemporary Egyptian politics ("you can't will them away and you can't exterminate them"). He opined that the best way to thwart the MB is for the GOE to require them to compete freely and fairly in the democratic arena, albeit with the military serving as a guarantor of the ultimate democratic direction of the Egyptian state, in the Turkish fashion. Ibrahim said he thinks that the GOE should legalize an Islamist party (to give legal voice to the MB's political aspirations) and at the same time amend the constitution to make the military the ultimate guarantor and protector of Egypt's secular democracy. Ibrahim noted that, although the USG did not provide any direct democracy assistance to the MB in the 2005 elections, ironically it was the MB that benefitted the most from the increased transparency and accountability that USG democracy assistance created. ¶5. (C) On the looming matter of constitutional reform, Ibrahim said that he thinks the GOE must focus on four areas of constitutional reform: 1) amending article 77 to establish presidential term limits; 2) establishing the military as the guardian of Egypt's civil state; 3) ensuring the full independence of the judiciary (vice the half-measure of the recently passed law); 4) ensuring full judicial supervision of elections (vice the NDP's proposal to establish an election commission that answers to the Supreme Judicial Council, a body controlled by the executive branch). ¶6. (C) Comment: Ibrahim is angry at what he terms a "betrayal" by the USG of the democracy movement in Egypt. We believe that Ibrahim will not provide any direct benefit to the banned MB with his present or future USG democracy funding. RICCIARDONE