EGYPT'S POLITICAL REFORM PROCESS: SAAD EDDIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 005865

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC STAFF FOR WATERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM EG
SUBJECT: EGYPT'S POLITICAL REFORM PROCESS: SAAD EDDIN
IBRAHIM AND THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD


Classified by Deputy Chief of Mission Stuart Jones for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Leading Egyptian democracy activist Saad
Eddin Ibrahim confirmed that he is deeply disappointed by
what he perceives as diminished USG support for democratic
reform in the Middle East. Ibrahim is worried that the USG
is pulling back from once clear support for democracy in the
region, as a result of fear about Islamist success at the
ballot box. Although Ibrahim said that he and his
organization, the Ibn Khaldun Center (IKC),unambiguously
support secular democracy, Middle Eastern Islamist parties
are a fact of life in the region and can neither be ignored
nor eliminated. Ibrahim recommended that the USG urge allies
like Egypt to bring the Islamists into democratic political
processes, and compel them to play politics by universally
accepted standards. Ibrahim said that IKC will not use USG
democracy assistance to benefit Egypt's banned Muslim
Brotherhood. End summary.


2. (C) In recent conversations with emboffs, leading
Egyptian democracy activist Saad Eddin Ibrahim elaborated on
his August articles in the Washington Post and Al-Masry
Al-Youm, Egypt's leading independent daily. Ibrahim said
that the region's democracy activists had been "alone for the
past 27 years, ... (but then President) Bush took notice and
helped on democracy." Ibrahim said, "I thought at one time
the U.S. would support democracy, but I was wrong." Ibrahim
believed that the summer 2006 Israeli incursion into Lebanon
marked a turning point because "Israel was threatened by
Lebanon as a new democracy in the region." Ibrahim bitterly
concluded that the U.S. appeared "willing to sacrifice
democracy in Lebanon."


3. (C) Emboffs assured Ibrahim that the USG remains fully
committed to supporting democratic reform in Egypt, but there
is concern that Ibrahim's apparent openness to cooperation
with the Muslim Brotherhood has led to questions about his
methods. Ibrahim assured us that he has no desire to see the
MB empowered any more than they already are. He argued
specifically that the new democracy project IKC plans to
implement with USAID funding is designed to build support in
Egypt for a secular democratic alternative to both the
GOE/NDP and the MB. He said he would have no objection to
certifying in writing (through the grant document or other
agreement) that the Ibn Khaldun Center will work only with
legal organizations. Ibrahim argued strongly that Egypt
needs more secular parties like Ayman Nour's Ghad Party and
Osama Ghazali Harb's proposed Democratic Front Party to
counter the appeal of the MB message.


4. (C) Regarding his view on the MB, Ibrahim said that they
are a "fact of life" in contemporary Egyptian politics ("you
can't will them away and you can't exterminate them"). He
opined that the best way to thwart the MB is for the GOE to
require them to compete freely and fairly in the democratic
arena, albeit with the military serving as a guarantor of the
ultimate democratic direction of the Egyptian state, in the
Turkish fashion. Ibrahim said he thinks that the GOE should
legalize an Islamist party (to give legal voice to the MB's
political aspirations) and at the same time amend the
constitution to make the military the ultimate guarantor and
protector of Egypt's secular democracy. Ibrahim noted that,
although the USG did not provide any direct democracy
assistance to the MB in the 2005 elections, ironically it was
the MB that benefitted the most from the increased
transparency and accountability that USG democracy assistance
created.


5. (C) On the looming matter of constitutional reform,
Ibrahim said that he thinks the GOE must focus on four areas
of constitutional reform:

1) amending article 77 to establish presidential term limits;
2) establishing the military as the guardian of Egypt's
civil state;
3) ensuring the full independence of the judiciary (vice the
half-measure of the recently passed law);
4) ensuring full judicial supervision of elections (vice the
NDP's proposal to establish an election commission that
answers to the Supreme Judicial Council, a body controlled by
the executive branch).


6. (C) Comment: Ibrahim is angry at what he terms a
"betrayal" by the USG of the democracy movement in Egypt. We
believe that Ibrahim will not provide any direct benefit to
the banned MB with his present or future USG democracy
funding.
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