INCREASED DETENTIONS OF MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD MEMBERS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 005709 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR RICK WATERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/04/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM KISL KJUS EG SUBJECT: INCREASED DETENTIONS OF MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD MEMBERS Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Stuart Jones, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The Egyptian regime detained 38 Muslim Brotherhood (MB) members in late August, including two senior members of the organization. These arrests are the latest in an apparent renewed government campaign against the MB that began last spring. Some analysts assess this as a GOE reaction to the MB's activism in parliament, as well as a signal of strong displeasure with MB Supreme Guide Mohamed Mahdi Akef's inflammatory anti-regime rhetoric during the Lebanon crisis. Others view it as a regime warning, in advance of upcoming labor union elections and the November opening of a parliamentary session in which numerous controversial constitutional amendments will be discussed. END SUMMARY. -------------- MB ARRESTS ON THE RISE -------------- ¶2. (C) In recent months, the GOE has intensified its campaign of detentions of MB members, culminating in a new round of arrests the last week of August. Approximately 38 MB members were detained in the last round-up, including two senior members of the MB Guidance Council - Mahmoud Ezzat, the 66-year old Secretary General of the MB, who is reportedly a central figure in MB funding efforts, and 80-year old partially paralyzed Lasheen Abu Shanab. Following a relative lull in the aftermath of the 2005 parliamentary elections, the regime resumed large-scale arrests of MB members in March 2006, when Rashad el-Bayoummi, Guidance Bureau member and supervisor of the MB's Student Department, was imprisoned together with several MB student leaders. Those detentions were quickly followed by numerous others, most notably the May arrest of MB spokesman Essam al Eryan and former MB parliamentarian Mohamed Mursi. By June 2006, press and MB sources estimated 645-725 MB members were in detention. Following subsequent rounds of arrests and some releases in July and August, press and MB sources esimate approximately 500-1000 MB members are currenty in detention. Many of them remain in governmet custody in violation of the June 2006 amendmen of the Criminal Procedures Code (Article 142, Chapter 9),which was revised to state that the total period of preventive detention should not exceed 45 days. -------------- GOE: ANGRY AND WORRIED -------------- ¶3. (C) Speculation varies among Embassy contacts and Egyptian political observers as to what is spurring the GOE's latest escalation against the MB. Some assess the regime's clampdown as a reaction to the MB's activism in parliament, as well as a sign of the GOE's strong displeasure with MB Supreme Guide Mohamed Mahdi Akef's inflammatory anti-regime rhetoric during the Lebanon crisis. Others view it as a regime warning, in advance of upcoming labor union elections and the November opening of a parliamentary session in which numerous controversial constitutional amendments will be discussed. -------------- MB DEFIANT -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Mohamed Habib, the MB's deputy Supreme Guide, was reported in the Egyptian press as attributing the renewed campaign to, "several factors, the most important of which is the attempt to reduce MB activity in Egyptian society and suppress MB political activities in advance of the upcoming labor union elections." Following Ezzat and Abu Shanab's August 25 arrest, MB lawyer Abd al-Munim Abd al-Maqsud commented to the press that the regime "wants to send a special message to the MB, specifically to the Guidance Bureau, that there is no ceiling for the arrests." Describing the current state of play as "an unprecedented hot summer," he noted his expectation that "the heat and tension between the government and the MB are likely to increase in coming months." The MB issued an August 28 official statement in reaction to the latest arrests, noting "that if the regime were seeking by these measures to stop the deputies of the People's Assembly, the MB bloc will not cease to perform its legislative and popular roles. Those who believe that arrests will stop the MB are daydreaming ...." The MB has filed a court suit against the Egyptian Minister of Justice and Public Prosecutor for extending the imprisonment of al Eryan, Mursi, and others, citing the "unconstitutionality and illegality" of the extension of CAIRO 00005709 002.6 OF 002 their detentio. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) The catand mouse game between the Egyptian regime and th MB is decades-old, and detentions of swaths of th MB membership are nothing new. Statistically, owever, it does appear that the GOE has intensifed its detention of MB members over the past twoyears. In 2004, an estimated total of 90 MB membrs were detained. In 2005, hundreds more were arested, and the 2006 detainee numbers appear to beequal or greater. The cycle of arrests is likel to continue unabated in the foreseeable future,as long as the MB continues to publicly challengeand criticize the Mubarak government, and as lon as the Egyptian regime continues to feel threatend by the MB's apparent strength. JONES