VENEZUELA PRESSING ARABS HARD ON UN SECURITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 005383 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/2016 TAGS: PREL UNSC ARABL UNGA EG VE GT SUBJECT: VENEZUELA PRESSING ARABS HARD ON UN SECURITY COUNCIL CANDIDACY REF: A. CAIRO 3822 (NOTAL) ¶B. STATE 20173 (NOTAL) Classified by Minister Counselor for Political and Economic Affairs William R. Stewart for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Venezuela is taking advantage of ongoing conflicts in Lebanon and Palestine, and Arab discontent with Israel and the U.S., to boost its chances of winning a seat on the United Nations Security Council in October. While neither Egypt nor the Arab League to our knowledge has committed to support Venezuela over its Latin American Group (GRULAC) competitor Guatemala, it appears that Venezuelan President Chavez hopes to trade on his current street appeal among Arabs. Nevertheless, Guatemala's Ambassador to Egypt is sanguine about Guatemalan efforts to win Arab support. End summary. -------------- Venezuela Pushing Hard for Votes -------------- ¶2. (C) In advance of the October vote in the UN General Assembly to determine the Latin American (GRULAC) candidate for a seat on the UN Security Council, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez appears to be seeking from Arab governments the same level of support that he has gained among Arab publics recently. "Chavez of Arabia" - as some local media are calling him - is gaining popularity from Arabs for his unflinching criticism of Washington and Israel. Nonetheless, Egypt to our knowledge has not taken a position on supporting Venezuela for the Council seat. When NEA Assistant Secretary Welch raised the topic with Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit in June, the minister ducked the question, though suggested Washington "be subtle" in order not to make U.S. opposition to Venezuela the issue. Since then, Egypt has hosted a Venezuelan presidential envoy in August who met with Prime Minister Nazif and delivered a letter from Chavez to President Mubarak. GOE officials have been reluctant to discuss the relationship with Caracas, although a Deputy Assistant Minister for Americas Affairs told poloff August 28 that the issue was being debated internally and no decision had been taken on which country to support. -------------- Guatemalan Ambassador Sanguine -------------- ¶3. (C) Economic and Political Section Chief and poloff called on Guatemalan Ambassador Antonio Malouf Gabriel and his deputy Jose Manuel Azurdia Longo on August 24 to convey USG interest in assisting Guatemala to secure Arab votes in the upcoming Security Council election. Malouf described a recent Cairo visit by Guatemala's new Foreign Minister, during which the minister dined privately with Egyptian Foreign Minister Aboul Gheit, and separately with Arab League Secretary General Amre Moussa, all close friends from serving SIPDIS together at the UN in New York. Malouf said neither official pledged outright support for Guatemala, but both were sympathetic to Guatemala's bid and appreciated the challenge from Venezuela. Malouf expressed confidence that Arab governments would not be "bought" by Venezuelan money, and accused Caracas of trying to "buy votes" from Caribbean and African states. Malouf argued that Venezuelan President Chavez's tactics did not endear him with regional leaders other than those in Syria and Iran. Malouf predicted that neither Guatemala nor Venezuela would win an outright two-thirds majority in the first round of elections, and that Guatemala's president would likely engage personally in the region ahead of a second round of voting. -------------- Venezuela Popular at the Arab League -------------- ¶4. (C) Venezuela has also targeted the Arab League and the African Union for political support, sending a senior envoy to the last African Union Summit in Gambia and a presidential envoy to Cairo to meet Arab League Secretary General Amre Moussa. Ambassador Malouf shared that he had also tried to attend the AU Summit, but a lack of information from the AU, no connecting flights, and no hotel room in Gambia prevented his travel. Arab League Secretariat Chief of Staff Hisham Youssef told poloff on August 27 that Moussa and the Venezuelan envoy signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) in response to Venezuela's desire for a "special relationship" with the League. Youssef said the agreement was non-substantive and was one of 40-50 such MOU's that the AL had signed with other states. Youssef said he would consider how to respond should Guatemala request to sign a similar MOU (Guatemala's DCM called poloff late August 24 to say that Guatemala had requested "observer status" at the League, and sought USG help to ensure that any agreement with the League in this regard was identical to that signed between the League and Venezuela. The DCM also said Guatemala was considering whether to formally request attendance at the upcoming Arab foreign ministers meeting, September 5-6 in Cairo.) -------------- Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) We assess that Egyptian President Mubarak and other top GOE leaders will view Venezuelan Security Council membership as detrimental to GOE efforts to establish lasting peace between Israel and the Arabs. While the Arab world may express solidarity with Chavez and others publicly criticizing Israel and Washington for its policies toward Lebanon and the Palestinians, Chavez's embrace of Iran, Syria's Asad, and Hizbollah can only antagonize the GOE. RICCIARDONE