SCENESETTER FOR FBI DIRECTOR MUELLER'S VISIT TO EGYPT

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 000493



SIPDIS



FOR THE DIRECTOR FROM THE AMBASSADOR



E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/26/2016

TAGS: PTER, KCRM, PREL, EG

SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR FBI DIRECTOR MUELLER'S VISIT TO

EGYPT



REF: 05 CAIRO 8938



Classified by Ambassador Francis Ricciardone for reasons 1.4

(b) and (d).



Director Mueller,



1. (C) Thank you for rescheduling your visit to Egypt. The

Egyptians will welcome you warmly, but you should be aware of

some shifts in the political context and atmospherics of our

relationship with Egypt since we last updated you in December

(reftel). Several internal developments in the past eight

weeks have put a strain on our bilateral ties, although the

core of our partnership in law enforcement and mutual

security affairs remains solid.



2. (S) Your visit presents an opportunity to review and

upgrade our law enforcement/intelligence cooperation with the

Egyptians. The CIA has a strong and growing relationship

with the Egyptian Intelligence Service (EGIS). We believe

your visit can help the FBI to establish a similarly robust

and productive partnership with the State Security

Investigative Service. Although they see the national

interest in improving law enforcement cooperation, leaders

like Omar Soliman, Interior Minister Adly, SSIS Director

Abdel Rahman and especially President Mubarak--all of whom we

expect you will meet--remain suspicious of our intent. On

our side, we should be ready with concrete proposals to

advance practical cooperation in law enforcement. Exchange

of forensic and biometric data and associated upgrades of

Egypt's capabilities in this field could provide a good

beginning.



3. (C) Three developments in the past eight weeks have

altered the political context. First, widespread

irregularities and violence marred the parliamentary

elections which concluded on December 8, drawing criticism

from both domestic and international quarters, including the

United States. Second, the December 24 conviction and

jailing of opposition leader Ayman Nour, was an

unconvincingly disguised act of political repression. Third,

the December 29 operation by GOE security forces (who fall

under the authority of Interior Minister Adly) to disperse a

large group of Sudanese refugees squatting in a downtown park

went badly awry, with 27 Sudanese dead. All three

security-related incidents have undermined Mubarak's

credibility as a leader of democratic reforms, and has

strained our ties with Egypt. The bedrock of our strategic

interests with Egypt, however, remains as important as ever.



4. (C) After a long period of quiet, the specter of terrorism

returned to Egypt in late 2004. Interior Minister Adly, and

State Security Director Hassan Abdel Rahman, have now seen

three major terrorist incidents on their watch:



-- The bombing of three resorts in the Sinai, October 2004;

-- The bombing at a major Cairo tourist market, April 2005;

and

-- The Sharm el-Sheikh bombing, July 2005.



5. (C) Not withstanding these terrorist attacks and the MOI's

role in the election problems and Sudanese refugee deaths,

Interior Minister Adly held on to his seat in the late

December cabinet shuffle, and will remain a key interlocutor

for us in the foreseeable future. Adly is an old-school,

conservative security man, highly skeptical of any form of

democratic political opening that might impact traditional

MOI SoPs. But he has been very cooperative with us in most

operational areas of security and law enforcement.



6. (C) We hope you will stress our interest in expanding

technical cooperation, generally in your meeting with

President Mubarak, and more specifically in your meetings

with the Minister of Interior and the State Security

Director. For example, Egypt should be a leading candidate

for the FBI's initiative to upgrade sharing of fingerprint

and other biometric data on suspected terrorists and other

criminals. Now that Washington has identified a funding

source we hope you will be able to tell the Egyptians that we

are ready to move forward with this project, which would

include extensive training and equipment upgrades for

Egyptian personnel. In addition, we hope you will invite

State Security Director Hassan Abdel Rahman to bring a high

level delegation to Washington to visit FBI HQ and the

Quantico training facilities early this year. We expect that

once he sees what the FBI can offer and establishes some

personal contact, he will be more forthcoming with

intelligence cooperation on their side. Not withstanding his

suspicions, he probably would welcome an offer from you to

expand training opportunities for Egyptian personnel at the

FBI Academy.



7. (C) Until recently, the GOE was reluctant to discuss

publicly the issue of Trafficking in Persons (TIP),which as

you know has taken on a high policy profile in Washington.

However, on January 23, Egyptian First Lady Suzanne Mubarak

delivered the keynote address at an international conference

on TIP in Athens, denouncing the practice and calling for

stronger international coordination to combat it.

Particularly if you meet Mubarak, you may wish to compliment

Egypt and Mrs. Mubarak in particular, for taking on an

unaccustomed new role as an outspoken advocate against TIP

and reiterate USG interest in cooperating with Egypt in this

campaign.



8. (C) The November-December parliamentary elections resulted

in a five-fold increase in the number of seats held by

independent candidates representing the outlawed but

tolerated Muslim Brotherhood. The GOE has a long history of

threatening us with the MB bogeyman. Your counterparts may

try to suggest that the President,s insistence on greater

democracy in Egypt is somehow responsible for the MB,s

electoral success,and may even try to draw a cautionary

example out of Hamas' January 25 election victory. (The GOE

sees Hamas, with fair reason, as spawned by the MB.) We do

not accept the proposition that Egypt's only choices are a

slow-to-reform authoritarian regime or an Islamist extremist

one; nor do we see greater democracy in Egypt as leading

necessarily to a government under the MB. The images of

intimidation and fraud that have emerged from the recent

elections favor the Islamist extremists whom we both oppose.

The best way to counter narrow-minded Islamist politics is to

open the system. If the Egyptians are willing, the FBI could

serve as a resource and partner, among other U.S. agencies

and programs, in professionalizing the Egyptian security

services and modernizing their investigative techniques.

This would enhance the credibility of the security apparatus

and remove an arrow from the Islamists, quiver.



9. (C) We believe the Egyptians will welcome your visit as a

serious effort to enhance our law enforcement cooperation,

and another mark--only three weeks after VP Cheney's

visit--of the American recognition of the value of our larger

partnership across the board.

RICCIARDONE