CODEL KOLBE MEETINGS WITH EGYPTIAN OFFICIALS AT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 003264

SIPDIS

H PASS FOR NORMAN CHERITH
NSC FOR SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/24/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL EG
SUBJECT: CODEL KOLBE MEETINGS WITH EGYPTIAN OFFICIALS AT
THE WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM


Classified by DCM Stuart Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) Summary. A series of senior Egyptian officials
told CODEL Kolbe at the World Economic Forum (WEF) that a
process of real political reform is underway in Egypt and
that opposition political leader Ayman Nour's sentencing was
not a political act. President Mubarak told the delegation
that U.S.-Egyptian relations are "unchangeable" and responded
warmly to praise for Egypt's helpful role in the region.
Prime Minister Nazif expressed disappointment with the recent
public criticism of Egypt in the U.S., and urged that U.S.
bilateral aid not be linked to reform. The President's son
Gamal Mubarak stressed that the previous year's presidential
and parliamentary elections, despite their flaws, were a
bigger turning point than most people, inside Egypt and out,
realized. He dismissed any comparison of Egypt to the Shah's
Iran, and urged that Washington not try to micromanage
Egypt's political reform process. End summary.


2. (U) Members of the Delegation included: Rep. Jim
Kolbe (R-AZ),Rep. Nita Lowey (D-NY),Rep. Howard L. Berman
(D-CA),Rep. James P. Moran (D-VA),Rep. Roger Wicker (R-MS),
Rep. Carolyn Kilpatrick, (D-MI),Rep. Brian Baird (D-WA),and
Mr. David Adams, Staff Director for the House International
Relations Committee. Ambassador Ricciardone and an Embassy
notetaker accompanied the CODEL.

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President Mubarak: Political Reform Underway
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3. (C) During a 90-minute breakfast May 22, President
Mubarak explained to Chairman Kolbe and his delegation that a
process of political reform was well underway in Egypt, and
noted that the focus of the process had shifted to
parliament. Important parliamentary scrutiny of the
constitution was taking place, he said, and based on
parliament's recommendations, parts of the constitution will
be amended. The process will take time, he warned, with a
step-by-step approach. Noting he is "keen on democracy," the
President derided recent political demonstrations in Egypt by
suggesting that the demonstrators themselves did not have a
clear idea of what they were demonstrating about.


4. (C) Underscoring the President's comments on the reform
process, Prime Minister Nazif emphasized that the process has
as its objectives more accountability, a redistribution of
political power between the president and cabinet, a better
representation in parliament by opposition parties, and more
participation by women and minority groups in parliament. An
open debate is expected, Nazif said, and the process would
include referenda. There is a timetable, the PM insisted;
the government is serious and committed. Chairman Kolbe
asked if the Prime Minister could share the timetable with
the members of the delegation, and Nazif readily promised to
do so.


5. (C) In response to concerns raised by the CODEL on the
conviction and sentencing of former presidential candidate
Ayman Nour on forgery charges, Mubarak argued that Nour's
case was criminal, not political. The President called on
Nazif to recount Nour's criminal past, which included an
illegal Internet telephone operation Nour allegedly profited
from, and the allegation that Nour made a blatant attempt to
forge photographs showing torture of prisoners in jail. When
the former case was brought to Mubarak's attention, the
President decided not to prosecute Nour. Nour's wife, the PM
noted, had done a masterful job at spinning his story in the
media and deserved credit for much of the attention that her
husband is getting.


6. (C) Responding warmly to comments of appreciation made
by several members of the delegation for Egypt's friendship
and critical role in the region, Mubarak said that the
U.S.-Egyptian relationship was "unchangeable," but warned the
delegation to be cognizant of Egypt's stability.

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Prime Minister Nazif: Criticism Among Friends
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7. (C) In a May 21 meeting, Prime Minister Nazif noted
common U.S. and Egyptian values and interest in peace, and
urged the CODEL to put minor bilateral political differences
into the context of our important overall strategic
relationship. Replying to Chairman Kolbe about the upcoming
debate in Congress in which some members might express a
desire to cut FMF funding for Egypt, the Prime Minister said
that he wanted to offer ammunition for a positive outcome of
the debate. On Ayman Nour, he foreshadowed the President's
comments by noting that the jailed politician was not "our
whole reform agenda," adding that Nour was in jail because of
a strong and independent judiciary. The results of the
presidential elections had been clear. Ayman Nour ran freely
and got only seven percent of the vote. The Egyptian people
had spoken and President Mubarak had won fair and square.
There was no need to put Nour in jail for political reasons,
according to the PM. In response to a question from a member
of the CODEL, Nazif said that a USD 200 million cut in aid
from the United States would hardly dent the budget, but it
would, he said, put a big dent in the public side of our
relationship. We are your friends, he lamented, and we are
disappointed that you believe that we have to be reprimanded.


8. (C) In response to concerns raised by Representative
Moran regarding the treatment of judges who had criticized
the conduct of the parliamentary elections, Nazif explained
that the magistrates had not been jailed, but reprimanded
because of their criticism of other judges' actions. The
major outcome of the elections, he noted, was that the Muslim
Brotherhood had increased their number of seats from 17 to

88. This was a significant gain, and was indicative of the
process. Political reform was underway. He urged the United
States to guide Egypt along the way, but not to use aid as a
means to do so.

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Gamal: Egypt is not Iran; Don't Try to Micromanage Us
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9. (C) In a meeting with Gamal Mubarak on May 22, Chairman
Kolbe noted the negative attention Egypt was drawing in the
U.S. with the sentencing of Ayman Nour, the prosecution of
judges who criticized the conduct of last year's
parliamentary elections, and the violent GOE response to
demonstrations in support of the judges. The Chairman
explained that these events were strengthening the conviction
of some on the Hill that it was time for serious scrutiny of
the Egypt assistance programs.


10. (C) Gamal responded vigorously, even heatedly. He
explained that he had visited Washington less than two weeks
prior to the WEF and had heard Congressional concerns
first-hand. Mubarak tried to focus his interlocutors'
attention on the big picture of reform. He stressed that the
previous year's presidential and parliamentary elections,
despite their flaws, were a bigger turning point than most
people, inside Egypt and out, had realized. The elections
had empowered civil society and the media, and opened up new
constitutional issues that President Mubarak was determined
to address.


11. (C) Specifically, Gamal suggested that Article 74 of
the constitution would be amended to limit the powers of the
president and other amendments would be pursued to better
balance the relationship between the executive, legislature,
and judiciary. The state of emergency would be lifted and
replaced with an anti-terror law that protected civil
liberties, the budget drafting process would be changed, and
greater authority and control of spending would be devolved
to local authorities.


12. (C) Representative Moran said that the U.S. and Egypt
were at a "crucial time" in the bilateral relationship.
Egypt is a "good friend," but President Mubarak is
increasingly perceived on the Hill as "imperious and
undemocratic." There was a fear expressed by some of a
repeat of the Iranian revolution in Egypt and called for a
stable transition to an inclusive government, stressing that
the U.S. does not want to lose a strategic ally the way it
lost Iran.


13. (C) Gamal dismissed the comparison. Egypt, he said, is
a much more vibrant society far more open to political debate
than the Shah's Iran. Gamal said that some (i.e., Islamists)
want to use the tools of democracy "to take Egypt backward."
He made specific reference in this regard to the judiciary,
arguing that some had intentionally fomented confrontation
over debate in the discussions between the government and
judges regarding judicial independence. While expressing
understanding that recent events were worrying to many in
Washington, he urged Congress to keep an eye on the big
picture of reform and not micromanage the relationship.
"Nobody in Washington acknowledges the progress we're
making," Gamal complained, "they only look at the setbacks."
He returned to the theme later, stressing that matters like
the judges dispute or the violent response to demonstrations
need to be looked at in a larger context. These, he implied,
were temporary setbacks in the GOE's overall march toward
reform.


14. (C) Asked by Chairman Kolbe about the potential impact
of a $200 million cut in FMF, Gamal replied that "the money
is not the issue." More important, he explained, would be
the symbolic blow to the relationship and the perception that
the U.S. is using assistance as a club. He claimed that the
GOE is already subject to public criticism for demeaning
itself by accepting conditions on U.S. assistance. The
benefits of assistance are overshadowed by public anger over
U.S. policy in the region.


15. (C) Stressing that he was speaking frankly, Gamal said
that by pursuing greater democratization Egypt was "going
into uncharted territory." The issue should not be the
amount of assistance Egypt gets tomorrow but rather the
nature of the U.S.-Egypt relationship for the next decade.
The debate over assistance, he emphasized, just "poisons the
atmosphere."

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Trade, Not Aid
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16. (C) Gamal said that he wanted a bilateral relationship
based on a deep trade and economic relationship, not on
assistance. He recalled the GOE's efforts, going back to
Deputy Secretary Zoellick's tenure as USTR, to resolve
various commercial disputes and lower some trade barriers in
order to lay the groundwork for Free Trade Agreement (FTA)
negotiations. He argued that, in Egypt's very conservative
culture, economic reform was not popular. He lamented that
Egypt's economic reformers were undermined by the U.S.
unwillingness to begin FTA negotiations.

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Gamal on Ayman Nour
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17. (C) At the conclusion of the meeting, Representative
Lowey expressed concern that Nour's conviction had been
upheld a few days earlier. Gamal responded vehemently,
arguing that on May 18 Nour's conviction had been affirmed by
Egypt's highest court and that there was nothing the GOE
could do to "get rid of" the issue. Egypt's judiciary, Gamal
insisted, is "untouchable" and the Egyptian president does
not have any authority under the constitution to remove a
case from the courts.


18. (U) CODEL Kolbe did not have an opportunity to clear
this message before departing Egypt.
RICCIARDONE